While AL West-leading Mariners have struggled, Astros have woken up

The Seattle Mariners have been fortunate this season in one very specific way: they play in the AL West.

Mariners’ sputtering offense is nearing a dubious feat

Seattle’s division has been the worst in baseball in 2026, which is why the M’s have been able to hold first place for nearly a month straight at this point despite a deluge of injuries and a middling offense.

At the same time, the Mariners’ chief competition has changed a few times – which is helpful since it means no one has been consistently challenging them for the top spot.

But the flip side of the Mariners being fortunate is that they haven’t fully taken advantage. After suffering a series loss in Pittsburgh this week, the Mariners fell back to .500 with an even 41-41 record. Since the Mariners hit a high-water mark of four games over .500 on June 2, they have scuffled to an 8-12 record and won just one of six series over the stretch.

And now things are getting tricky, because a new – and, unfortunately, familiar – challenger is emerging in the division, while the other two that have been there for a while remain.

At first, it was the Athletics who the M’s chased and eventually overtook for first place with a big sweep in Sacramento last month.

Morosi: A’s are Mariners’ biggest threat in AL West

Then it was the Texas Rangers who pushed their way into the conversation alongside the A’s.

While the A’s (38-42), Rangers (38-42) and even Mariners have all failed to go on a serious run in June, though, the big bad wolf of the AL West has returned: the Houston Astros.

On May 21, the Astros sat at a dismal 20-31 record. In their 31 games since, they have gone on a 19-12 run – which is plenty good to get back into the race. And now with a 39-43 record on the season, Houston is in the exact same position as the A’s and Rangers, which is just two games back of the lead following the Mariners’ loss Thursday.

The Astros are probably the team that could give Seattle its toughest competition for the division, considering Houston won the AL West in seven out of eight years before the M’s finally ended its long reign last season. That means the Astros have plenty of players who have experience in playoff races, as well as a culture of winning that is impossible to replicate without making the postseason year in and year out.

The Astros still have very real concerns on the pitching side, as they rank 27th out of the 30 MLB teams with a 4.76 ERA. But their offense is tied for eighth in baseball with a .730 OPS, and they’re led by American League MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, who leads all of MLB with a 1.069 OPS and .634 slugging percentage, and is tied for the most homers in the AL with 25.

One thing that’s on the Mariners’ side, though, is how well they’ve played against their top rival in recent years. Seattle has already beaten Houston seven times in eight games this season, clinching a head-to-head tiebreaker as the two will play only five more times in the regular season. And going back to 2023, the Mariners have a combined 32-15 record against the Astros, with 11 series wins to just three for Houston.

So yes, the Mariners have shown they can beat the Astros. But it’s becoming increasingly likely they’ll have to in order to return to the postseason in 2026.

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