Salk: The big Mariners questions on opening day

The 2025 Seattle Mariners begin their season tonight. If you have questions about who they are and what they can accomplish, you aren’t alone.

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Despite being someone who has made a career of trying to deliver opinions on what I see, what I expect, and what I want to see happen next, this team has me at a loss. More than any other season, the wide range of possibilities ahead of them feels almost overwhelming.

We will all have thoughts on what might occur, but I’d beware anyone who feels confident about any results, both positive and negative. In fact, just about the only thing I do feel sure about is that we should have a clear answer by the end of this season on which direction the team is headed.

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Until then, here are a few of the bigger mysteries as they open up against the A’s.

The big questions for the 2025 M’s

• 1. Is Julio Rodríguez a really good but inconsistent player, or a superstar who can carry his team to new heights?

For the last few years, the Mariners have had an offense problem. This is undeniable fact and everyone who has played for, watched, listened to, or even heard about this team knows it. Except for one thing: when Julio hits, their offense is just fine. Their hot offensive stretch at the end of last season coincided with Julio’s production, and that’s not the first time we’ve seen that.

We all know that the Mariners will go as goes Julio.

But how will Julio go?

This year, he seems to have arrived with a little more edge. Maybe that comes from maturity. Maybe it’s from the natural jading process that comes with all of the attention he’s received. Maybe it’s frustration. Or maybe it stems from a desire to lead this team in a new way.

Regardless, this is his age 24 season. While he’s still a young player, youth is no longer an excuse nor explanation for any of his struggles. If Julio is going to fulfill the promise of his greatness, this is a pivotal year for him. My guess is that if he succeeds, the team will follow. If not… well, you know the rest.

• 2. Did the organization make the right bet on its current players, or did the M’s badly miss on the opportunity to add what they needed?

If the offense doesn’t improve, this will be the easiest answer of all. They’ve tried analytical data, focusing on exit velocity, right/left platoons, offensive coordinators and just about everything else. Now, they are going back to basics.

No, they aren’t fully committed to a 1980s small ball approach, but it sure seems like we’ll see a drastic simplification in the amount of data being translated to players, a simplified approach to staying up the middle, and a lot more willingness to trade outs to advance runners. It’s an aggressive style that should be fun to watch if it works. But will it work?

If it does, it will be the future of baseball in Seattle. If it is the solution to the most run-depressing park in the league (by far), we should see a further commitment to it. But if not, the only thing left to point to is the evaluation and development of talent at the big league level. And my guess is that would lead to a change in not just how they are evaluating but who is leading that process.

• 3. Can a run prevention team survive without a good defensive infield?
and
• 4. When are reinforcements coming?

I’m putting these two questions together because they may very well be connected. Regardless of Julio or the success of the new offensive approach, this team will still be built upon its ability to prevent runs.

As you know, they have an all-world starting rotation and a bullpen that could develop into one of the league’s elite units. But to prevent runs, you have to play defense. And while Julio, Victor Robles and Cal Raleigh all qualify as top defenders, that may be where that list ends.

J.P. Crawford bounced back last season in outs above average, but it’s likely his best defensive years at shortstop are behind him. You could make an argument that to start the year, the team has an outfielder at first base, either a defensively-challenged rookie or a utility man (who is best in the outfield) at second, a second baseman at shortstop, and a first baseman/DH at third, not to mention a defensive question mark in left field.

It will help to have the ability to use Dylan Moore and Miles Mastrobuoni as defensive replacements late in games, but there is no doubt the Mariners will give up some extra outs. Infield coach Perry Hill is the best in the business, but this is going to be herculean test even for him.

If they hit, that likely won’t matter. But if not, how long will they be able to survive without making some changes? It’s why my bet for the first non-pitcher call up from Tacoma is prospect Ben Williamson. I suppose it could be utility infielder Leo Rivas, but I’m hoping for Williamson because the former second-round pick has one elite skill: he can really play third base.

Williamson’s bat is a question mark, but if he isn’t overwhelmed in the Pacific League, he needs to be on this roster sooner rather than later. That would allow Jorge Polanco to move to second (or first), and solidify some of the potential defensive issues. Cole Young is in a similar position at second base. Most of the conversation around the prospects has concerned their offensive talent, but I wonder if it’s defense that gets them to the big leagues.

• 5. Can the bottom of the pitching staff keep from undercutting the top?

Assuming health, the starting pitching is the reason so many projections and predictions like the Mariners to win the AL West. There are only a handful of teams that can roll out quality starts nearly every game, and dominant ones on any given night. And between Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash (who is set to return early in the season), the late innings should be covered.

But that isn’t how they’ll start the year.

Emerson Hancock will begin the season in the place of George Kirby in the rotation. My guess is he’ll get anywhere from seven to 20 starts in 2025 as the next guy up for any injuries that could take place. If he develops into the pitcher the Mariners selected in the first round in 2020, that will be just fine. But he has yet to find that in his young career. He doesn’t strike out as many batters as his peers in the rotation and he has walked too many hitters, as well.

I’m bullish on Hancock this season. But this team is built on pitching, and if he struggles every five games, they don’t have much depth behind him.

It’s the bullpen, though, where the real discrepancy exists. If Brash is healthy, if Gregory Santos is the player that the Mariners traded for last season, if Troy Taylor develops, if Collin Snider’s second half is repeatable, if Gabe Speier returns to form… well, you get the idea.

There are a lot of ifs. A Muñoz/Brash/Santos/Speier combo could be as good as any in the league. It would allow Snider, Taylor and Trent Thornton to handle lower-leverage situations.

But if they have the lead in the seventh or eighth inning this weekend, do you know who manager Dan Wilson will turn to? Who would you trust to bridge that gap to Muñoz? My guess is Snider gets the first shot as they wait for Brash and Taylor to return and for Santos to prove himself, but the discrepancy between what this bullpen could be and how it looks this weekend is sizable.

Look, that’s four questions. Four what ifs. Four discrepancies that could mean the difference between another frustrating “wait ‘til next year” and some actual joy on the corner of Edgar and Dave. That’s four, but we could probably pick four more. Or four after that.

This season has more ifs than any in recent years. It’s going to make it fun to observe. And it’s going to get us answers that should set the path forward for this organization.

Seattle Mariners news and analysis

• Mariners officially announce Cal Raleigh’s contract extension
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• Who’s the M’s best bounceback candidate? Trevor May weighs in
• Drayer: What the Mariners’ roster brings north for 2025 season
• Insider: How Seattle Mariners stack up in wide-open AL West

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