3 questions that will define the 2nd half of Seahawks’ season

The Seattle Seahawks have had an up-and-down beginning to the Mike Macdonald era.

Macdonald Preview: ‘Sense of urgency’ high for Seahawks

There have been some encouraging developments during Seattle’s 4-5 start, but those have largely been overshadowed by the continued struggles along the offensive line and in run defense. After losing five of their past six games heading into last week’s bye, the Seahawks look to get back on track in their return to action Sunday.

With the unofficial second half of Seattle’s season about to kick off, here are three defining questions that will go a long way to determining how the Seahawks fare over their final eight games.

• Can Abe Lucas help salvage the O-line?

It’s unfair to pin the fate of the offensive line on one player, especially when that player is coming off knee surgery and hasn’t played an NFL game in 10 1/2 months. But at this point, the return of starting right tackle Abraham Lucas might be the only reasonable path to Seattle turning things around up front this season.

The Seahawks’ offensive line has once again been a major problem, ranking 25th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 29th in ESPN’s run-block win rate. The pass-protection woes have left Geno Smith under frequent duress, with the veteran quarterback enduring the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. And there’s been little room for the ground attack to get untracked, with Seattle ranking 27th in the league with just 91.2 rushing yards per game. The Seahawks have a quality quarterback and elite skill-position talent, but it’s all been crippled by the issues up front.

Lucas’ expected return on Sunday, however, provides at least a glimmer of hope. The biggest issue along the O-line has been at Lucas’ right tackle position, where a revolving door of injuries have forced Seattle to spend nearly the entire season with third-stringer Stone Forsythe and fourth-string rookie Michael Jerrell at that spot. Both have struggled mightily, with Forsythe ranking 74th out of 76 tackles in PFF grading and Jerrell ranking 75th out of 76.

If Lucas can stay healthy and replicate the potential he showed during his impressive 2022 rookie campaign, that could go a long way toward raising the O-line to a more competent level, which in turn could enable the rest of the offense to shine. But of course, that’s all a major if, given that Lucas’ knee issues have limited him to just six games since that 2022 season.

• Can the defense follow Macdonald’s 2022 Ravens and take a second-half leap in Year 1?

During his two highly successful seasons as the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator in 2022 and 2023, Macdonald developed a reputation as one of the league’s brightest defensive minds. That hasn’t translated to immediate success in Seattle, with the Seahawks ranking in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories. But even for a defensive guru like Macdonald, it was unrealistic to think there wouldn’t be growing pains as Seattle adjusted to his cutting-edge schemes.

Just look at Macdonald’s tenure in Baltimore. Over the first eight games of 2022, the Ravens ranked 20th in points allowed per game. That’s on par with the Seahawks this year, who were tied for 19th in scoring defense through the first eight weeks. But midway through Macdonald’s first season as the DC in Baltimore, the Ravens took off. Following a midseason trade for All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, Baltimore ranked second in scoring defense over the final 10 weeks of 2022 and then led the league in scoring defense in 2023.

It’s unlikely that Seattle will follow that exact path and suddenly morph into one of the NFL’s best defenses. The 2022 Ravens defense unquestionably had more talent than this year’s Seahawks unit. But that being said, it’s entirely possible that Seattle’s defense could make considerable strides in the second half, as players continue to grow more comfortable in Macdonald’s system. There’s also an interesting parallel to the 2022 Ravens: Just like that Baltimore team, the Seahawks swung a midseason trade for an inside linebacker by acquiring Ernest Jones IV, who already looks like an upgrade on run defense just two games into his Seattle tenure.

And though it was only one game, the Seahawks showed signs of potentially turning a corner on defense in their overtime loss to the Rams two weeks ago. Seattle held Los Angeles to just 13 offensive points in regulation and had its most impressive performance of the season on run defense, which has by far been its biggest issue on that side of the ball. After entering the game ranked 28th in yards allowed per carry (4.9) and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (148.4), the Seahawks held the Rams to just 68 rushing yards and a mere 2.8 yards per carry.

Was that a one-game mirage or a sign of things to come? We may find out pretty quickly, with star running back Christian McCaffrey and the talent-laden San Francisco 49ers looming on Sunday afternoon.

• Can the Seahawks cut down on their back-breaking mistakes?

After Seattle’s loss to the Rams two weeks ago, ESPN NFL analyst Ben Solak shared a jarring stat that sums up the team’s offensive woes: According to Elias Stats and ESPN Stats & Info, the Seahawks are facing an average distance to gain of 8.9 yards on third-down attempts, which would be the worst mark in the NFL since at least 1980. This goes without saying, but it’s borderline impossible to operate an efficient offense when third-and-long situations are that commonplace.

That stat is very much a reflection of Seattle’s offensive line problems, as sacks and a sputtering run game have left the unit behind the sticks far too often. But it’s also a reflection of the Seahawks’ maddening mess of back-breaking mistakes.

Seattle has committed a league-high 8.3 penalties per game – including the most offensive holding penalties per game (2.11), the third-most false starts per game (1.89) and the fourth-most delay-of-game penalties per game (0.56), according to NFLPenalties.com. The Seahawks also have had three botched shotgun snaps over the past two games, resulting in a combined loss of 63 yards. There was a costly fourth-and-goal gaffe on the 1-yard line against the Buffalo Bills, when since-retired center Connor Williams stepped on Smith’s foot and sent him stumbling to the ground. And there were Smith’s two red-zone interceptions against the Rams – one of which was returned for a pick-six.

But the crippling mistakes haven’t just been limited to the offense. There was the blocked field-goal attempt against the New York Giants that cost Seattle a shot at overtime, a crucial missed extra point against the Rams, Laviska Shenault Jr.’s fumbled kickoff return against the 49ers and Derick Hall’s costly roughing-the-passer penalty against the Bills – just to name a few.

Some teams are talented enough to overcome a barrage of self-inflicted wounds. The Seahawks are not one of those teams. They have enough issues elsewhere, so they can’t afford to keep shooting themselves in the foot and making things even more difficult on themselves.

More on Seattle Seahawks

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• What are realistic expectations for Abe Lucas in potential return?
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