Salk: It’s time for the Mariners to trade a pitcher – but which one?

If you’ve spent any time on Youtube, TikTok or Instagram, you’ve probably seen the “Don’t do it, don’t do it” trend. If not, it’s the one where someone tries to avoid doing something (like touching the outside of an airplane before boarding) but eventually succumbs to the temptation, all while a voiceover says “don’t do it” over and over again. This is my “Don’t do it” column, in which I’ll advocate for something I know is tempting but potentially dangerous. Should we control the urge? I’m not sure I can any longer.

It’s time for the Seattle Mariners to trade pitching for hitting.

Even writing those words makes my skin crawl. Despite the frustration of the last few seasons in Seattle and some evidence from this year’s postseason, I refuse to believe that there is anything in baseball more valuable than starting pitching. It just goes against my basic understanding of the game. And what the Mariners have built is nothing short of spectacular, with five controllable starters capable of giving a quality start nearly every night. It’s an enviable position that would make every manager jealous.

Two potential Mariners infield trade targets to watch

But it’s overkill. Having five top-notch starters is unnecessary. That’s not to say it isn’t cool (it is), and it was incredibly helpful as this group of young pitchers was learning how to pitch deeper into games. But four starters of this quality plus another one who is near league-average is more than enough to get this team where it should want to go.

Furthermore, Emerson Hancock is ready to be that league-average starter. He’ll turn 26 years old in May and would still retain his rookie status. It’s time to either give him a shot at the fifth starter role or trade him to someone who will. If you’re worried about depth (as you should be), Logan Evans turns 24 in June and should be ready to contribute to the back end of a rotation sooner rather than later.

And if you are truly terrified that you are in line to lose multiple starters, there are other options available. That list starts with Japanese star Roki Sasaki (who will cost just the league minimum plus a posting fee to his Korean team), but also includes plenty of veteran free agents like Matthew Boyd, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb and Kyle Gibson. None of those guys would be confused with frontline starters at this stage of their career, but they could certainly be valuable at the back of the rotation, especially for a team with a (hopefully) upgraded offensive attack.

Now that doesn’t mean the Mariners should be looking to “get rid” of any of their star pitchers. After making dozens of arguments over the years for trading away talented players, I now understand that this is a necessary disclaimer. No one wants to get rid of any of these pitchers, nor should any conversation about dealing one away be confused with any hatred for that player. These are incredible pieces for a team that needs to consider reconfiguring its assets in a more beneficial and balanced way.

When asked this week about trading a starter this week, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said that they loved their starters – as he should. Everyone loves them. The hope here is that another team loves one of them enough to give up someone that the Mariners would love just as much, but at a more beneficial position.

The unfortunate reality of this conversation is that the next part of it involves a discussion of who not just if. And there is no good nor right answer to that question.

Which Mariners pitcher goes?

All five Mariners starters are excellent and valuable. All of them have good years left, and their value to other teams is likely commensurate with how you feel about them. So while Luis Castillo may be older, more expensive, and coming off a “down” year, those negative qualities affect any return you could get in a trade.

Looking at the five starters, I think there are reasons to consider trading four of them.

For Castillo, it is the possibility of freeing up salary while acquiring something of value. Maybe that is speedy Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner or another hitter of that ilk. While Castillo might be the pitcher most fans are likely to be OK with dealing, I’d be very wary. His value is a little lower right now and I think there is a bounceback coming. He is a hard worker and veteran who knows how to pitch and his consistency is underrated.

For Bryan Woo, it’s the fear of injury. Unlike the other players on this list, he has a more concerning arm history, which is the most likely predictor of future issues. But of course other teams are just as aware of that and will make offers accordingly.

For Logan Gilbert, it is the proximity to free agency and the fear that he won’t sign a long-term deal here in Seattle. I would be loathe to trade Gilbert because of his consistency, dominance, work ethic, leadership, pitching profile and so many other factors. It would take an absolutely perfect deal to part with such a player. But he is at peak value right now and it should be somewhat concerning that he has not signed a contract extension with the team yet. Generally players that rebuff those overtures specifically want to get to free agency, and he might fit into that category.

For George Kirby, the argument is pretty darn similar to that of Gilbert: a realistic fear that he won’t be willing to spend his career here in the northwest. But while his profile has some similarities to Gilbert (the strikeouts and innings are so valuable), I think there are more questions regarding his remaining upside, especially outside of T-Mobile Park where he can’t just sit in the strike zone.

You can see where I’m going with this. Kirby would be my choice, depending obviously on what you could get in return. He has so much of what pitching-hungry teams desire, and while I wouldn’t bet against him, I think he is the least likely of the group to significantly improve in the next few years. Like anyone on this list, it would take something really tempting to deal him away, but teams like the Orioles and Red Sox have some of those young bats that fit that description.

You will also notice that Bryce Miller isn’t on my list. As strange as it sounds, he has become the most untouchable pitcher in this rotation. His combination of stuff, growth potential, lack of name recognition elsewhere, and dogged personality make him the guy I would least want to see traded. I don’t know if he will ever reach the level of a Gilbert or what Castillo was just a few seasons ago, but I don’t think his trade value would be as high either. And everything I’ve heard about him confirms that he is exactly the type of pitcher you’d want on your postseason roster and in the biggest moments.

This is a tough column to write. No one wants to break up this incredible group of pitchers. And I do believe that some of the moves made last year to improve the outfield will pay benefits in 2025. But small dabblings in free agency for hit-or-miss players like Yoán Moncada or aging veterans like Justin Turner aren’t going to be enough to put this team over the top. It might hurt, but it is time. If – and only if – they can find the right deal, the Mariners need to deal from their overabundance of starting pitching.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Dave Sims leaving Mariners to become new voice of Yankees
• Why All-Star Alec Bohm makes so much sense as Mariners trade target
• Four Takes: Big Seattle Mariners questions about offseason and 2025
• Justin Turner proved Seattle Mariners need his veteran presence
• The change that would help Seattle Mariners’ bats? Pushing fences back

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