Mariners Breakdown: Analyzing playoff picture after series win

Aug 28, 2024, 6:52 PM | Updated: 7:35 pm

Seattle Sports

The Seattle Mariners took one small step closer as they attempt to rally for a playoff appearance and their first American League West title in 23 years.

Watch: Seattle Mariners outfielders slug two-run HRs in same inning

The Mariners topped the Tampa Bay Rays 6-2 on Wednesday to secure a second consecutive series win and wrap up a brief six-game homestand. As a result, Seattle gained one game and sits 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Houston Astros, who dropped two out of three against the Philadelphia Phillies.

“We’re excited,” Mariners manger Dan Wilson said postgame Wednesday. “This is a good one to build on – another good series win – and we’ll take it on the road.”

The Mariners improved their playoff odds to 17.5% with the series victory over Tampa Bay, per FanGraphs. They entered the series at 15.1%.

“I think we just got to keep piling up series wins. I think that’s the key,” Wilson said. “It doesn’t really matter how they come. Again, we’ve got a lot of work to do here and we’re looking at it that way – just keep putting together good baseball, good at-bats, good pitching performances and turn around and see where we’re at.”

Seattle has the day off Thursday before starting a three-game series at the Los Angeles Angels on Friday. Meanwhile, Houston begins a four-game home series against the Kansas City Royals on Thursday. After Thursday, the Mariners and Astros will each have 28 games remaining. They square off once more for three games in the penultimate series of the season Sept. 23-25 in Houston.

The Mariners also alive in the wild card picture, but their chances are bleaker than their shot at winning the division.

They’re currently 4 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the third and final AL wild card berth. Seattle was 6 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot entering Monday. However, the Boston Red Sox are also just three games behind Minnesota.

The Royals, Twins and Red Sox all hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners.

Seattle has just a 3.3% chance of clinching a wild card berth.

Schedule watching

A look at the remaining strength of schedule, toughest remaining opponent by record and easiest remaining opponent by record for the Mariners, Astros, Twins and Red Sox, per Tankathon.

• The Mariners have the 25th-toughest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of .481.Their toughest remaining opponent is three games against the Yankees. Their easiest remaining opponent is three games against the Angels.

• The Astros have the 14th-toughest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of .499. Their toughest remaining opponent is three games against the Diamondbacks. Their easiest remaining opponent is seven games against the Angels.

• The Twins have the 16th-toughest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of .497. Their toughest remaining opponents is three games against the Orioles. Their easiest remaining opponent is thee games against the Marlins.

• The Red Sox have the 18th-toughest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of .496. Their toughest remaining opponent is four games against the Yankees. Their easiest remaining opponent is three games against the White Sox.

Up next

The Mariners open a three-game series at the Angels on Friday. Seattle’s pitching probables (in order) are right-hander George Kirby, right-hander Bryan Woo and right-hander Bryce Miller, while Los Angeles is set to counter with right-hander Carson Fulmer, left-hander Tyler Anderson and right-hander Johnny Cueto.

The Angels sit in last place in the AL West at 54-78, which is better than only the historically bad White Sox in the AL. However, they have won five straight against Seattle.

The Mariners are 4-6 overall this season against the Angels.