Danny O’Neil’s NFL picks: Week 1, where weird things happen

Somewhere there is someone at this very moment who is writing that the one thing that makes the NFL so great is that each year – when the season starts – there are 32 teams who can believe that this is the year.

That’s what makes Opening Day in the NFL so special, right? The season stretches out before everyone untrampled, untainted and wide open with possibility in each of the 32 entities across the league. This isn’t like baseball with its payroll imbalance or the NBA where more than half the league begins the year knowing full well that it has absolutely no chance at winning the championship.

The NFL, with its hard salary cap and legislated parity, has set up a system so everybody has a chance. Or at least that’s what someone is trying to tell you. Well, tell that to the poor suckers in Buffalo, who have discovered that there is something worse than losing four straight Super Bowls: not making the playoffs for 15 consecutive years. It’s the longest active drought in the NFL.

Or how about the Cincinnati Bengals, who have gone 24 years without winning a playoff game, and we haven’t even gotten to Cleveland, the New York Jets or the Oakland Raiders with their quarterback situations that are best described as being cadaverous.

The truth is that this is a league divided into eight-team groups. Eight teams that have legitimate championship aspirations. Eight teams that will be worse than everyone expects. Eight teams that will be better than anyone thinks and then the eight teams who will be walking behind the parade scooping up the poop from the thoroughbreds at the front of the pack.

The challenge is knowing which group each team is in, and with that, we begin our picks for Week 1 of the NFL season:

Pittsburgh at New England

This is the 12th year in which the defending Super Bowl champion has played in the prime-time opener the following season. Only one defending champ has lost at home in that spotlight: The Giants were beaten by the Cowboys to begin the 2012 season. Throw in the state-wide celebration that Tom Brady was freed from Roger Goodell’s hoosegow, not to mention the fact that Pittsburgh’s Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant will be missing because of puff-puff-give suspensions, and you can expect a night-long venting. Remember what happened the last time the NFL caught the Patriots cheating? They didn’t lose a regular-season game.

Pick: Patriots 41, Steelers 27

Indianapolis at Buffalo

The Bills don’t have a quarterback capable of winning the SEC let alone the AFC East, but their defense was one of the NFL’s best last year so watch, they’ll go out and hog-tie the Colts, an AFC favorite, in Rex Ryan’s coaching debut to make sure that Buffalo’s hopes are properly overinflated before the inevitable letdown. In the past four years, the Bills have never had a losing record in the month of September, but have never had a winning record in December. God may hate Cleveland, but he’ll tease the heck out of Buffalo.

Pick: Bills 19, Colts 16

Green Bay at Chicago

You almost feel bad for the Bears. They are one the league’s iconic teams. A franchise from a no-nonsense city that is known best for its linebackers. Butkus. Singletary. Urlacher. And now that franchise’s most influential player is an impulsive, callous quarterback married to a California blond from an MTV show. Buckle up, Chicago. You’ve got another year with a quarterback who doesn’t even pretend to care about interceptions. Meanwhile, watch Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers make gourmet chicken salad out of the chicken (stuff) his team will have at wide receiver with Jordy Nelson lost for the year to a knee injury.

Pick: Packers 26, Bears 20

Kansas City at Houston

You think Texans coach Bill O’Brien is (bleeping) ready for this (bleeping) game? Because he made quite a (bleeping) impression during “Hard Knocks” on HBO. The Texans were a fun team to get to know whether it was J.J. Watt and his tire-flipping workouts or Vince Wilfork wearing overall shorts and cowboy boots to a walkthrough. And after all that, you look down and see Brian Hoyer is the starting quarterback, realize that Hoyer is on his fifth franchise and that’s about the moment you realize that a wild-card berth is about as good as it’s going to get for the Texans.

Pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 16

Carolina at Jacksonville

The Jaguars haven’t won a game in September either of the past two years. In fact, they haven’t scored so much as 20 points in a game played in September either of the past two years. Throw in the fact that tight end Julius Thomas – one of the team’s signature additions this offseason – is going to be out at least the first month while the team’s top pick – Dante Fowler – suffered a season-ending knee injury after being chosen No. 3 overall and things don’t look promising for Jacksonville. And that dour prognosis is the only reason to pick Jacksonville. Because it’s the NFL and sometimes goofy things happen. Especially in Week 1.

Pick: Jaguars 20, Panthers 17

Cleveland at New York Jets

If games between two great quarterbacks are called duels, then this game is like two grade schoolers throwing dirt clods at each other. It’s going to be long, drawn out, extremely ugly and everyone will wind up feeling filthy. The Browns have a McCown at quarterback – I think it’s Josh – while a cleaned up Johnny Manziel is nursing a sore arm. On the other side, the Jets presumed starter – Geno Smith – has been eating through a straw after getting punched by a teammate, leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick and his beard as the presumed starter. If the NFL is a quarterback-driven league – as so many like to say – these two teams are already belly up in the ditch.

Pick: Browns 19, Jets 15

Seattle at St. Louis

Maybe the third time will be the charm for Jeff Fisher. Except this is his fourth season. Yep, the fourth year he has been in St. Louis and the Rams have yet to post a winning record under his watch. Actually, they haven’t even been .500. Factor in the end of Fisher’s tenure with the Titans when the team had two winning seasons in his final seven years as coach and you’re looking at a coach who has coached a winning team in two of his last 10 seasons as head coach. That means one of two things is true: Either Fisher’s pedigree as one of the league’s top coaches is vastly overrated or he has been dealt some pretty crummy hands as a coach. Here’s betting it’s the latter. This Rams team will be Seattle’s biggest challenge in the division and they’ll make that clear in Week 1.

Pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 20

Miami at Washington

God bless Daniel Snyder, the antithesis of the American Dream. The man who has taken the franchise with one of the richest histories in the NFL and turned it to rags. It’s like Horatio Alger in reverse. At this point, it’s difficult to tell what is more bullheaded and self-defeating: the retention of a nickname described in the dictionary as a racial slur or refusing to release Robert Griffin III. In comparison, Miami and its annual mediocrity serves as a model franchise. Never all that good. Not truly awful. The Dolphins are high-centered in the middle of the NFL, which is a great place to be when you compare it to the team from our nation’s capital.

Pick: Dolphins 24, Epithets 20

New Orleans at Arizona

The Saints took a cap hit to let go of their best player not named Drew Brees. There was no financial advantage for the Saints to trade tight end Jimmy Graham. In fact, they’re eating money on the deal, which makes sense when you consider how much money they’ve eaten on Junior Galette, among others. It’s going to get worse in New Orleans before it gets better. The Cardinals aren’t built for the long haul, either. But they’ve got Carson Palmer back and everyone in Arizona is going to treat themselves to an afternoon in which they imagine what might have happened a year ago if Palmer hadn’t gotten hurt.

Pick: Cardinals 31, Saints 27

Detroit at San Diego

The next time someone starts talking about the importance of a franchise quarterback in the NFL – which is certain to happen at least once for every 5 minutes of NFL-oriented programming – I want you to think about these two teams and tell me if either one of them has a franchise quarterback. They both do. At least they do in terms of payroll. And Philip Rivers is one of the most prolific passers in the game. He’s thrown for more than 4,000 yards in six of the past seven seasons. Of course, his team made the playoffs in only three of those years and has won exactly two postseason games in that time. That’s two more postseason wins than the Lions’ Matt Stafford has. Oops. Sorry. Matthew Stafford. Just goes to show that passing yards aren’t everything. So here’s to a game spent oohing and aahing over arm talent between two quarterbacks who never factor prominently in the postseason.

Pick: Chargers 29, Lions 28

Baltimore at Denver

Just think: This is as good as Peyton Manning will feel all year. And he’s going to look good, too. The Broncos are going to cruise in a game against a Ravens team that has gotten a lot of press, and everyone will start to say that Manning has that zip back on his passes and wonder if last year’s playoff flameout was a result of his leg injury. Whatever. The guy had a hard enough time winning in the playoffs before he had four neck surgeries in a calendar year or whatever it was. This Broncos team is going to win more games in the first half of the season than they will the second half, and I don’t think they’re making the playoffs.

Pick: Broncos 29, Ravens 18

Cincinnati at Oakland

The Raiders are better. No seriously. They are. Hard to be worse for a team that hasn’t had a winning season since it reached the Super Bowl 12 years ago. The problem is that the Raiders aren’t deep, a reality that has more than a little to do with how many picks Oakland gave up to acquire Carson Palmer four years ago. Chickens are coming home to roost. Or in this case, the Bengals are coming to feast.

Pick: Bengals 23, Raiders 20

Tennessee at Tampa Bay

Hmmm, a season-opener between the two teams with the top two picks in last year’s draft, each of whom selected a quarterback. It’s almost like someone in the league office wanted this to be a showcase game. The Bucs actually have a chance to be good this year with a head coach in Lovie Smith who can do a lot on defense. The question will be whether Jameis Winston can be more of a caretaker at quarterback as opposed to a playmaker. He’ll be able to stick to the script this weekend, but he looks like the kind of rookie who will hit a wall in the second half of the season.

Pick: Bucs 18, Titans 15

New York Giants at Dallas

This is the most important Week 1 game on the schedule. On one hand is a Cowboys team that – for once – exceeded expectations last season and returns this year without the running back who served as the engine for the offense. On the other side is a Giants team that has decided to keep the band together for one more tour under the grumpy conductor known as Tom Coughlin. Throw in the fact that those two teams play in the two most reactionary NFL markets in the country and someone is going to be in full-fledged flip-out come Monday morning, which makes it really too bad that both can’t lose.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24

Philadelphia at Atlanta

The toughest game to predict in Week 1. Chip Kelly traded one expensive running back with durability concerns (LeSean McCoy) so he could sign another expensive running back with durability concerns (DeMarco Murray) and traded for an injury-prone, immobile quarterback who may not be much better than Nick Foles but is significantly more expensive. Meanwhile, the Falcons missed the playoffs two straight years, fired one head coach who had a defensive background (Mike Smith) to hire another coach with a defensive background (Dan Quinn) while crossing their fingers that Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White can remain healthy enough to carry the offense. One of these teams is going to make the playoffs. I just have no idea which one it is.

Pick: Eagles 37, Falcons 27

Minnesota at San Francisco

The Vikings are a trendy pick in the NFC North given Green Bay’s injuries. Adrian Peterson is back and Teddy Bridgewater is a year older, and the 49ers are coming off what most people consider to be the worst offseason in the league. But weird things happen in Week 1, and never underestimate a team’s desire to marshal an incredible effort in its first game under a new coach.

Pick: 49ers 30, Vikings 27

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