Predicting what’s in store for WHL and Thunderbirds in 2015-2016

By Tim Pigulski and Andy Eide

It’s that time of year again. The 50th anniversary WHL season officially kicked off Thursday night with Moose Jaw defeating the Regina Pats 3-1. The T-Birds get things going in Vancouver Friday night and do so with a ton of expectations.

How will it all play out? Will this be the year that the T-Birds make the deep run they’ve been eager to make for quite a while? Who will be the team MVP? How will the rest of the league play out?

We are back with our fourth annual season prediction piece. It’s been an incredible run as we’ve been batting 1.000 each year, so take these predictions to the bank. Note: this statement is not true.

Can Seattle win the US Division?

Tim Pigulski: Not only can Seattle win the division, but anything less than a U.S. Division crown should be considered a disappointment. Everett and Portland, who finished first and second in the division last year, respectively, have both lost important pieces. Both teams picked up valuable assets this offseason, but both will struggle to replace everyone who has moved on.

Seattle, on the other hand, is a team that should be much stronger. There are question marks, but Seattle looks better equipped to overcome those issues than either Portland or Everett. If Seattle’s goaltending holds up, their depth at forward should lead them to their first division title since 2004-05.

Andy Eide: The T-Birds head into the season as the favorites to win the U.S. Division so yes, they can win it. It won’t be easy and they’re not going to run away with it however. As much as Seattle fans would love to write off the Portland Winterhawks, their demise is premature. While they lose some firepower up front, they are stronger on defense and have excellent goaltending so be wary of the Winterhawks.

Seattle will win the division because from top to bottom they have the most talent and depth. Their potential top-six of Mathew Barzal, Ryan Gropp, Keegan Kolesar, Scott Eansor, Jamal Watson and Nolan Volcan is as good as any. Gustav Olhaver and an improved Alexander True should give Seattle three good lines and cause match up issues every night. Jerret Smith and Ethan Bear will carry the wood on the back end and despite Seattle’s inexperience in net, the T-Birds will be stingy.

Who will lead the T-Birds in scoring?

AE: Barzal lost out to Ryan Gropp in the team scoring race by one point last year, but he did so playing 23 fewer games than his good friend. This year there will be no doubt. Barzal is the type of player that makes everyone around him better and that will give him the team lead.

Gropp will be in the mix as should a guy like Jamal Watson. Watson put up good numbers last year on a really bad Lethbridge team and playing along side Eansor and Volcan, he should improve on what he did last season.

TP: He’ll miss time for international tournaments and professional camps, but the uber-talented Mathew Barzal should lead this team, if not the entire WHL, in points. He had 57 in 44 games last season and should build on that significantly this year barring injury. 100 points isn’t out of the realm of possibility, though somewhere in the 80-90 point range seems likely.

Other possibilities in my mind include Ryan Gropp, who will more than likely play on Barzal’s wing, and Jamal Watson, who has been a natural fit playing alongside Scott Eansor and Nolan Volcan. Watson remains at Montreal Canadiens camp though, so his return to Seattle is still up in the air.

Most important newcomer?

TP: He may only play in half of the team’s games, but goaltender Taz Burman will be the most important T-Birds newcomer this season. Seattle gave up a valuable asset in Lane Pederson to acquire the 18-year-old netminder, demonstrating their confidence in his abilities.

It appears that Seattle’s achilles heel this season will be in net. If the combination of Burman and fellow 18-year-old Logan Flodell are up to the task, this team is deep enough everywhere else for an extended playoff run.

Other than Burman, Watson will probably be entrusted with the biggest role as a newcomer, tasked with shutting down the opposition’s top lines while being a major contributor offensively.

AE: The T-Birds didn’t bring in a lot of new guys this year but the ones they did will all play huge roles. Goalie Taz Burman will be the front and center newcomer as he battles Logan Flodell for ice time. Gustav Olhaver was picked up in the CHL Import Draft and will be relied on to provide some secondary scoring and be net presence on the power play.

But Jamal Watson will be the most important. Assuming the 20-year-old does not sign with the Montreal Canadiens, he will play a huge role for Seattle. His speed will cause match up trouble for the opponents and he is a stellar penalty killer. Watson was the team captain in Lethbridge and he is eager to finally play for a winning team — he will be an important voice in the dressing room.

Who will be the T-Birds’ MVP?

TP: Seattle has a number of players who will need play to their full potential this season in order to achieve the team’s lofty goals, but it’s tough to say anyone is more important than Barzal. He’s expected to lead the team offensively, but he’ll also be a leader off the ice and an important piece defensively. His experience as a first round draft pick will make him someone that the younger players in the locker room look up to, and any sort of injury to Barzal could be devastating. Seattle is deep at forward and center, but a player with Barzal’s talent can’t be replaced by one man.

Scott Eansor is an incredibly underrated center who is finally starting to get the attention around the league that he deserves. He’s excelled in a shutdown role for two years, and this year will likely be the team’s top scoring center behind Barzal. He’s been a model of consistency, and apart from Barzal, is probably the most valuable player on the roster due to his versatility and work ethic.

AE: Seattle general manager Russ Farwell talked last week about the character of his team and the players have routinely mentioned how many leaders the team has. The club is deep and there are a number of players who are going to be key contributors and MVP type guys which makes picking one a difficult task.

But Farwell also said that your best players have to be your best players, on and off the ice. Barzal is the best player and all accounts point to him being driven like never before to win. He has elite talent and should be an offensive force for the T-Birds but he will also take a higher profile leadership role than he has before. While he won’t wear the C on his sweater, the younger players will look at him for cues.

Who is a sleeper team in each conference?

AE: Barring some sort of miracle, the Brandon Wheat Kings will win the Eastern Conference again this season. The East doesn’t appear to quite as deep as the West and their biggest challenge will be from the Memorial Cup hosting Red Deer Rebels. Red Deer has some players, most notably NHL drafted Haydn Fleury, Connor Bleackley and Adam Musil. They also picked up Ivan Nikolishin from Everett to help with some secondary scoring. They aren’t dynamic however and may look to make a splashy move at some point so they can compete in the Memorial Cup.

In the West, Kelowna is the odds on favorite again this season. Seattle will contend as well but the dark horse to watch out for are the Portland Winterhawks. While that will make T-Birds fans cringe, the Winterhawks will be tough. They will look different this year as they won’t rely on the high-octane offense they’ve had in the past. This team will be built on defense and goaltending. Adin Hill is a quality goaltender and the Winterhawks had two good defensemen sent to them when Caleb Jones signed and the Nashville Predators assigned Jack Dougherty to them. Paul Bittner returns to lead them up front and to try and make up some for the losses of Nic Petan and Oliver Bjorkstrand.

TP:In the East, anyone outside of Brandon should be considered a sleeper. The Wheat Kings appear to be an unstoppable force this year, but one team to keep an eye on is Red Deer, who will be hosting the Memorial Cup this year. They already have a talented roster featuring NHL draftees Conner Bleackley and Haydn Fleury, as well as Adam Musil, Wyatt Johnson, and former T-Bird Lane Pederson. As the Rebels make a push for a Memorial Cup victory, they’ll surely attempt to strengthen their roster via trade as the season progresses.

Prince George is a team to pay attention to in the Western Conference. An afterthought for a number of years, they’re led this season by Winnipeg Jets draftee Jansen Harkins and return other talented scorers in Brad Morrison and Chase Witala. They also added Jesse Gabrielle in the offseason to their talented offensive group, but still have some questions to answer defensively. They’ll get some help in net, where the duo of Ty Edmonds and newly-acquired Mack Shields will push each other for playing time, a competition that should bring out the best in both.

Who wins each conference and the league?

TP: The East is Brandon’s to lose. They played Kelowna for the Ed Chynoweth Cup last season, a year sooner than many expected them to really become contenders. Savvy drafting and front office work has set the Wheaties up with a talented and deep roster filled with players of every age. Brandon came it at No. 1 on the BMO CHL Preseason Top-10 Rankings, making them not only a candidate for best team in the WHL, but also the entire Canadian Hockey League.

The West should be a tighter battle and, at least on paper, should come down to Kelowna and Seattle. The T-Birds’ roster may be more talented than the Rockets’ this season, but Kelowna also possesses a great deal of depth and one thing Seattle doesn’t, which is the experience of a deep playoff run. The two teams face off four times during the regular season with the first meeting coming at the end of November.

AE: The Brandon Wheat Kings will win the Eastern Conference. They return a loaded roster and will only get better as young players like Stelio Mattheos and Kale Clague will play bigger roles. The Wheat Kings also got a boost this week when Philadelphia sent defenseman Ivan Provorov back to them. Red Deer will give them their stiffest competition as they gear up to host the Memorial Cup, but they don’t have the horses to outlast Brandon.

Kelowna and Seattle are the two top teams in the West. Seattle went 3-1 against the Rockets last year but the T-Birds have the new WHL playoff format working against them. The B.C. Division teams that Kelowna will play in the first two rounds of the playoffs will not be as strong as Seattle will have to go through in the U.S. Division. Prince George is vastly improved this year and could give the Rockets pause, but Kelowna is ultimately more talented. Because of the playoff format, the Rockets will be more rested when they have to take on a Seattle in the conference finals.

As boring as repeats can be, Kelowna will again face Brandon in the finals. The Wheat Kings have been eliminated the past two years by the eventual league champs but this year its their turn to win it all.

Who leads the WHL in scoring?

AE: Kelowna’s Nick Merkley will edge out his good friend Mathew Barzal for the league scoring title this year. Merkely is coming off a stellar 90-point 17 year old season and has a lot of weapons to play along side of him. Other candidates will be Moose Jaw’s Braydon Point, Brandon’s Tim McGauley and Medicine Hat’s Trevor Cox.

TP: Looking away from Barzal, who is a candidate here, a few names come to mind, but one player who is in line for another huge season is Brandon’s Tim McGauley. The 20-year-old center had 105 points playing for a stacked Wheat Kings team last year and is the league’s returning leading scorer. This year’s Wheat Kings team is even stronger than last, which should lead to an even higher output from the Wilcox, Sask. native.

Another possibility here is Moose Jaw’s Brayden Point, a center who seems to have a play in the WHL’s Top 10 goals every week. He’s a highlight reel waiting to happen and should build on the 87 points he had last year.

Who will be the first WHL player drafted?

TP: A few players are candidates for this honor, including Calgary defenseman Jake Bean and Vancouver forward Tyler Benson, but Regina’s Sam Steel will be the first WHLer off the board come June. The talented 17-year-old center averaged nearly a point per game for a Regina team that finished second in the Eastern Conference’s East Division last year.

Steel was also a plus-10 as a 16-year-old, something that’s almost unheard of for players new to the league. He’ll need to add some weight before he makes the NHL, but Steel’s talent is undeniable.

AE: The WHL will have a strong NHL Draft class this year. Last year it was assumed that Barzal would be the top WHL player selected but the draft has a funny way of working out. This year, for the second straight year, a defenseman from Brandon will be the first WHL player selected as Kale Clague will go first. Clague was a monster in his bantam and midget seasons and now with the chance to play alongside Provorov he should show off those skills at the WHL level.

One dark horst to watch for is Brett Howden from Moose Jaw who scored 22 goals as a 16 year old last year. He’s got NHL size and grit to go along with tremendous scoring touch.

Follow Tim Pigulski at @tpigulski and Andy Eide at @andyeide on Twitter.

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