Where Seahawks’ No. 1 seed odds stand after epic win

The Seattle Seahawks just authored one of their greatest comebacks in franchise history, rallying from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to pull off a stunning 38-37 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams in Thursday night’s pivotal NFC West showdown.

And in the process, the Seahawks gained the inside track to both the NFC West title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

The anatomy of a comeback: How Seahawks stunned the Rams

The Seahawks (12-3) are now all alone atop the NFC West, sitting one game ahead of the Rams (11-4) and 1.5 games ahead of the San Francisco 49ers (10-4).

The Seahawks are also now in sole possession of the NFC’s best record. Aside from the Rams and 49ers, the only other NFC team with 10-plus wins is the Chicago Bears (10-4).

And while it was all but a formality, Seattle officially clinched a playoff spot with Thursday night’s dramatic win.

Here’s a closer look at what it all means for the Seahawks.

What the odds say

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Seahawks’ odds of winning the NFC West are now at 55%. The Rams’ division-title odds fell to 24%, while the 49ers sit at 22%.

Seattle’s chances of claiming the NFC’s No. 1 seed are now at 52%. The 49ers are at 21%, followed by the Rams at 20% and the Bears at 6%.

If the Seahawks had lost on Thursday night, both their NFC West title odds and their No. 1 seed odds would have plummeted to just 2%.

The current NFC playoff picture

Here’s how the playoff picture currently looks in the NFC:

No. 1 seed: Seattle Seahawks – 12-3 (NFC West leader)
No. 2 seed: Chicago Bears – 10-4 (NFC North leader)
No. 3 seed: Philadelphia Eagles – 9-5 (NFC East leader)
No. 4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-7 (NFC South leader)
No. 5 seed: Los Angeles Rams – 11-4 (top NFC wild card)
No. 6 seed: San Francisco 49ers – 10-4 (second NFC wild card)
No. 7 seed: Green Bay Packers – 9-4-1 (third NFC wild card)

Still alive: Detroit Lions (8-6), Carolina Panthers (7-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

If the playoffs began today, the Seahawks would be the NFC’s No. 1 seed – which means they would hold the conference’s lone first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Rams would be the No. 5 seed, despite having the NFC’s second-best record. That’s because the conference’s top four seeds are awarded to the four division winners, so the best a non-division winner can be seeded is No. 5.

That’s what makes this year’s NFC West race so pivotal. The NFC West champion will likely earn the No. 1 seed, while the NFC West’s second-place team will likely be the No. 5 seed.

Or in other words, the NFC West champion might only need to win two home playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, while the division’s second-place and third-place teams would probably have to string together three consecutive road playoff victories.

Since the NFL adopted its current divisional format in 2002, 24 of the 46 No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl. During that same span, just four wild card teams have reached the Super Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the Seahawks have earned a No. 1 seed three times in franchise history (2005, 2013 and 2014). All three times, they reached the Super Bowl.

Looking ahead

Seattle wraps up its regular season with road games against the Carolina Panthers (7-7) and the division rival 49ers.

If the Seahawks win both games, they’ll capture their first NFC West crown since 2020 and their first No. 1 seed since their back-to-back 2013 and 2014 Super Bowl runs.

If the Seahawks lose to the Panthers and beat the 49ers, they would have a 42% chance to win the NFC West and a 38% chance at the No. 1 seed, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

And if the Seahawks beat the Panthers and lose to the 49ers, they would have a 25% chance of winning the NFC West and a 21% chance at the No. 1 seed.

So essentially, the Seahawks probably still need to win their final two games in order to claim the division crown, the top seed and all the advantages that come with that.

Seattle Seahawks coverage

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