Factors, possibilities with Russell Wilson’s contract extension

The Seahawks want to extend Russell Wilson’s contract.

That much is certain. This is a franchise that has made a habit of re-signing its own players from Marshawn Lynch in 2012 to Kam Chancellor the following season to Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman a year ago to Lynch (again) just last month.

Wilson’s deal will be the biggest. He is a quarterback, after all, and while there’s no doubt about Seattle’s willingness to sign him, the actual shape of the contract remains a big enough question that it has prompted some concern about whether a deal will get done.

So let’s take a big-picture snapshot of the various factors that will go into the negotiation, breaking down some variables to gauge the size of their potential impact.

Wilson carving out a baseball opportunity

Likelihood: Low. Like devil-living-in-an-igloo low

Pro baseball remains an itch for Wilson. In fact, I think he’d like another shot at it after failing to hit better than .240 in either of his seasons in the Rockies’ organization, and Wilson showed in his first four years of college that he could balance two sports. But the Seahawks wouldn’t be signing Wilson to an extension so they can start sharing him with the Rangers, especially not given the risks of injury and distraction. Would Wilson insist on negotiating an opportunity to play baseball? That seems highly unlikely given everything he went through to become a starting NFL quarterback, and while Wilson has never completely shut the door on baseball, he has never wavered in stating football is his priority.

The all-guaranteed contract

Likelihood: Low

The possibility of paying the entirety of the contract – as is common in MLB and the NBA – was trotted out as a tactic Seattle could use to save long-term money on Wilson’s deal. After all, most NFL players don’t see the final year or two of a huge contract as they are released or the deal is restructured as they reach the twilight of their careers. Quarterback is the one position where a team could guarantee the player’s salary four and five years down the road, confident his level of play won’t erode. Then again, quarterback is the one position where the player might be reluctant to sacrifice total value for security. Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in their 20s don’t tend to lose their jobs. Not even in the NFL. Why would Wilson need to accept $4 million less annually to guard against the possibility he could be released four years from now?

The Tom Brady precedent

Likelihood: Moderate

The Patriots quarterback is the strongest comparison to Wilson not only because each won a Super Bowl as an NFL sophomore, but because they filled similar roles. Each played on a team noted for its defense. Both carved out a reputation for late-game heroics. Does Brady’s contract also become a template for Wilson? The perception is Brady never really shook every quarter he could out of the Patriots’ pockets. When he signed an extension in 2005 – a deal that came with two years remaining on his existing contract – he didn’t receive as big of a signing bonus as either Peyton Manning or Michael Vick (ha!) did on their existing deals. But even with Brady and the Patriots, there were some touch-and-go moments with the quarterback conceding during the team’s White House visit that he was concerned about the pace of negotiations. Does Wilson want to set the market or follow the lead staked out by Brady?

Wilson’s place in the QB pecking order

Likelihood: Moderate

Wilson is a more accomplished player than the trio of quarterbacks who signed big-budget extensions a year ago: Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton and Alex Smith. That’s not a starting point for negotiations, but a reference point. Wilson’s resume merits more than any one of that trio. The question is how much more. You have to go back to 2013 to find extensions from quarterbacks that could be considered comparable in terms of success. Super Bowl winners like Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco or even a Pro Bowler like Matt Ryan. Two things make a straight comparison difficult: 1) Those offenses rely more on the quarterback’s arm than Seattle and its ground-bound approach; 2) Those deals were two years ago, and the cost of doing business has gone up. Asking whether Wilson should be paid more than Rodgers is different than asking whether Wilson should seek a deal bigger than the one Rodgers signed two years ago.

Why a contract is difficult: The rest of the league is watching. And waiting to see what happens with Wilson. Cam Newton – the top overall pick in 2011 – hasn’t signed an extension with Carolina. Andrew Luck – the top pick in Wilson’s draft – won’t be negotiating an extension with Indianapolis this offseason, either, because of the difference between the rookie contracts for first-round picks. The Colts hold a fifth-year option as Luck was a first-round pick while Wilson’s deal as a third-round pick is strictly a four-year affair. The fact that Newton and Luck don’t have new deals doesn’t put pressure on Seattle and Wilson so much as it eliminates reference points. Everyone else is waiting to let Wilson’s deal set the market.

Why a contract will ultimately get done: There’s too much money at stake. Not just in the future, but this season. Wilson has been the biggest bargain in sports for the past three seasons, and he is now scheduled to make $1.5 million in 2015. That puts him in position for a raise somewhere between $15 million and $20 million this season alone. It’s hard to see how he would make that up down the road because even if he were to play out the final year of his contract, he wouldn’t become an unrestricted free agent. Not with the franchise tag at Seattle’s disposal.

The underlying reality is that there is no doomsday scenario in this negotiation for the Seahawks and Wilson. The Seahawks have never shown the tendency to lowball their own players in contract extensions. In fact, the size of the extensions that Chancellor and K.J. Wright received were surprisingly large to the rest of the league.

A contract as big as the one Seattle is discussing with Wilson is never a foregone conclusion, but even after considering all the complicating factors, there’s no reason to believe that a deal won’t get done.

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