Danny O’Neil’s Week-3 NFL picks: Not all 0-2 starts are equal

Two wins don’t make an NFL season.

They certainly don’t hurt it, though. In fact, 63 percent of the teams that have started 2-0 have made the playoffs going back to 1990 when the NFL playoffs expanded to the 12-team format.

An 0-2 start isn’t a death sentence, either. It’s hardly encouraging, though. Of the 204 teams to start 0-2 since 1990, just 23 have made the playoffs. That’s 11 percent. Well, 11.2 percent if we’re going to get technical, and the Seahawks are hardly alone in that predicament.

The Colts and Ravens were forecast as Super Bowl contenders. They’re 0-2. So are the Detroit Lions, who made the playoffs last season, as well as the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants.

It doesn’t mean the season is sunk, but it does mean those teams have little room for error. In the Super Bowl era, only five teams have reached the playoffs after an 0-3 start. Only three of those 0-3 rebounds have occurred since 1990: the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Lions and 1998 Bills.

And now, for this week’s picks:

Washington at New York Giants

The Cowboys have won two games, but lost their two best offensive players for at least the next month while the Giants and the Eagles are both 0-2. Is Washington really the favorite in the division? No way. One victory over the Rams doesn’t trump all that dysfunction.

Pick: Giants 23, Epithets 15

Atlanta at Dallas

What’s more significant: The Cowboys’ two victories or the loss of Dez Bryant (foot) and Tony Romo (collarbone) to injury? Long term, it’s going to be those injuries, but this weekend at home with that offensive line, expect a gallant performance. Hey, you heard Jerry Jones. Brandon Weeden is just awesome.

Pick: Cowboys 20, Falcons 17

Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts are the biggest disappointment in the league through two weeks. The Colts have scored a league-low 21 points despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The AFC South is sorry enough the Colts can still win it, but if they lose this game to an opponent with a rookie quarterback, it will be the signal flare for a lost season that will cost either the coach or the GM his job and perhaps both.

Pick: Colts 31, Titans 23

Oakland at Cleveland

This might be the most difficult game to call this weekend. Neither one of these teams are very good. But neither one is completely awful, either, as demonstrated by the fact each won last week. While the temptation is to side with the home team, the fact that the Browns went back to Josh McCown after Johnny Manziel’s win last week means Cleveland is messing with its own mojo. The Raiders – gasp – could have a winning record after Week 3.

Pick: Raiders 20, Browns 17

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Like Seattle, Baltimore opened with back-to-back road games. Like the Seahawks, the Ravens are 0-2. Unlike Seattle, one of those losses came to an Oakland Raiders team that is better but by no means good. Time to panic in Baltimore? Not yet. But the team has allowed 56 points, and the fact that Steve Smith is the most effective offensive weapon wouldn’t be a problem if this was 2005, but instead it’s 2015 and the Ravens don’t look like a playoff team this season. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose this week, though.

Pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 16

Jacksonville at New England

The Jaguars’ victory last week matched their number of September wins over the previous three seasons combined, but we all know what happens after the Patriots get caught cheating: They eviscerate regular-season opponents. It happened in 2007 after they were caught filming the signals of opposing coaches, and it’s happening now after the offseason scrutiny of air pressure inside of footballs.

Pick: Patriots 38, Jaguars 19

Philadelphia at New York Jets

Do the Jets have the edge at quarterback in this game? The fact that you’d ask that tells you everything you need to know about how Sam Bradford has played so far in Philadelphia. Six of the eight quarters he has played could be classified as Geno Smith-caliber. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick is proving himself perfectly capable of not losing games that this Jets defense is on track to win. That’s going to change this week.

Pick: Eagles 27, Jets 17

New Orleans at Carolina

The Saints have given every indication that they are among the worst teams in the league, losing at home for the sixth consecutive time against a Tampa Bay team that was starting a rookie quarterback.

Pick: Panthers 24, Saints 21

Tampa Bay at Houston

Ryan Mallett wasn’t noticeably worse than Brian Hoyer. He wasn’t particularly better, though, but this game is going to be more about the Bucs quarterback. A Texans defense that has underwhelmed so far this season is going to overwhelm rookie Jameis Winston.

Pick: Texans 27, Bucs 9

San Diego at Minnesota

Glad to see Mike Zimmer’s team realized that Adrian Peterson was back on the roster. Surprising it took two weeks, though. This offense isn’t good enough to win consistently on the road, but playing at home – even a temporary home at University of Minnesota – will be a boost.

Pick: Vikings 23, Chargers 13

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

LeVeon Bell is back for the Steelers, which is good. He won’t be playing on grass at St. Louis, which is even better. After all that talk about how good the Rams are going to be, they’re staring straight at 1-2 after this week.

Pick: Steelers 27, Rams 24

San Francisco at Arizona

The Cardinals have scored the most points in the league so far, which is nothing less than shocking while the 49ers performed the expected face plant in Pittsburgh last week. The Cardinals have now won 14 of the last 16 regular-season games that Carson Palmer has started, outscoring opponents by 160 points in those 16 games. As long as he stays healthy, Arizona has to be considered a legitimate contender.

Pick: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20

Buffalo at Miami

Hey, look, the most perpetually mediocre franchise in the league over the past three seasons is a perfectly mediocre 1-1 so far. But actually it’s worse than that as the Dolphins lost in Jacksonville last week in a battle to see who wore the most lively shade of aquamarine. Miami might win this week, but don’t let that trick you into thinking this team is any good.

Pick: Dolphins 15, Bills 13

Chicago at Seattle

All 0-2 starts are not created equal, and the Bears’ 0-2 start is particularly egregious because both losses came at home. Now, Chicago is not only on the road against a Seattle team that is 22-2 at home with Russell Wilson starting at quarterback, but the Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen, who is 1-9 as a starting quarterback. He’s going to look like bait to a Seattle defense energized by the return of Kam Chancellor.

Pick: Seahawks 34, Bears 16

Denver at Detroit

The Broncos are the least impressive 2-0 team in the league playing on the road against a Detroit team whose desperation is offset by the reality of having a beat-up quarterback. Expect an eyesore.

Pick: Broncos 22, Lions 13

Kansas City at Green Bay

The Packers will have more prime-time home games in the span of nine days than the Seahawks had all of last season as the defending Super Bowl champs. Kansas City was 2 minutes away from staking out a 2-0 start and announcing itself as an AFC favorite before rolling over and allowing two touchdowns in the final minute against Denver last Thursday. As Seattle found out, though, Aaron Rodgers is just too good at home.

Pick: Packers 27, Chiefs 23

Related

Seahawks have ‘no concerns’ about Drew Lock’s status vs RaidersRams place star WR Puka Nacua on IR as roster flexibility dwindlesSeahawks Injury Report: LT Charles Cross returns to practiceHusky Stadium to be renamed after UW strikes historic dealUW Huskies sign two men’s basketball recruitsManchester United nearing deal to hire USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino