How realistic are UW Huskies’ CFP chances? Here’s a breakdown
Nov 1, 2025, 4:49 PM | Updated: 5:57 pm
The UW Huskies are a true dark horse in college football right now. They’ve spent the first two months of the season in the shadows, hovering mostly off the national radar.
But that could change significantly in the coming weeks.
With a favorable remaining schedule, the Huskies (6-2 overall, 3-2 Big Ten) have a chance to vault themselves into serious consideration for an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff.
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Here’s a closer look at what would need to happen for the Dawgs’ CFP dreams to become a reality.
The path to 10-2
First off, the Huskies would need to win out in order to have any chance of receiving one of the seven at-large bids to the 12-team playoff.
The good news for Washington? That’s doable.
Here’s a look at the Huskies’ remaining four games following this week’s bye:
• at Wisconsin (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) on Nov. 8
• vs. Purdue (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) on Nov. 15
• at UCLA (3-5, 3-2 Big Ten) on Nov. 22
• vs. No. 6 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) on Nov. 29
The Huskies should be a heavy favorite over Wisconsin, which is winless in Big Ten play after being outscored 143-27 in its five conference games. The Huskies also should be a heavy favorite over Purdue, another team without a Big Ten win. And while UCLA has been playing better over the past few weeks since firing its head coach, the Huskies should be favored against the Bruins as well.
So, if the Huskies take care of business over their next three games, they would be 9-2 when archrival Oregon comes to town for the regular-season finale.
Beating Oregon certainly wouldn’t be an easy task, but the Ducks do look a bit more vulnerable after slogging through a lackluster 21-7 win over Wisconsin last week. Also, Oregon’s double-overtime win at Penn State earlier this season – which seemed like a signature win at the time – doesn’t look nearly as impressive after the Nittany Lions’ recent collapse.
All that being said, the Huskies will likely still be an underdog against the Ducks. But the matchup looks more winnable now than it did a month ago. And it’s certainly no small thing that the Huskies will have home-field advantage on their side.
Would 10-2 be enough?
So, if the Huskies were to run the table and finish 10-2, would that be enough to sneak into the CFP?
It depends.
First, a quick refresher: This is the second season of the expanded 12-team playoff. There are five automatic bids, which go to the SEC champion, the Big Ten champion, the Big 12 champion, the ACC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion outside of the Power Four conferences. After that, there are seven at-large bids that go to the next seven highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings.
Since the Huskies already have two conference losses, they have virtually no chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game. That means their only path to the CFP would be via an at-large berth.
Of those seven at-large spots, two will likely go to the losers of the SEC and Big Ten championship games, given that those are the two preeminent leagues. Another would likely go to Notre Dame, assuming the Fighting Irish win out to finish 10-2. And it’s possible that another one or two at-large berths could go to the losers of the Big 12 and ACC title games, but that’s less clear.
So, realistically, after taking those factors into account, there probably will only be a few at-large spots remaining for a potential 10-2 team from a Power Four conference.
Last year, there were four Power Four teams that finished the regular season at 10-2: Ohio State (Big Ten), Tennessee (SEC), Miami (ACC) and BYU (Big 12). Ohio State and Tennessee received at-large bids to the CFP, while Miami and BYU didn’t. Or in other words, the 10-2 teams from the Big Ten and SEC got in, while the 10-2 teams from the ACC and Big 12 missed the cut.
So in that sense, a 10-2 Washington team would likely have the edge over a 10-2 team from the ACC or Big 12. But if the SEC has multiple 10-2 teams, those teams would likely have the edge over a 10-2 Huskies team, given the SEC’s prestige.
What UW fans should root for
So, if you’re a UW fan, what should you be rooting for over the next month? Here’s a quick three-step guide:
1. UW needs to win out. This one is simple. The Huskies have to win out and finish 10-2. Without that, the following two steps don’t matter.
2. Oregon probably needs to be 10-1 heading into the finale. This one goes against every fiber of Husky fanhood, but Washington fans will need to hold their noses and hope the Ducks win each of their next three games – ideally in as dominant fashion as possible – heading into the UW-Oregon showdown. The Huskies are lacking a real signature win right now – their biggest victory so far came last week against an Illinois team that’s now unranked in the AP poll – so it’d benefit them to have the Ducks ranked as high as possible prior to their Nov. 29 matchup. (Keep in mind, if UW beats Oregon and both teams finish 10-2, the Huskies would almost surely get the edge over the Ducks in the final CFP rankings, due to their identical records and UW owning the head-to-head victory.)
3. Chaos. Simply put, the Huskies need as many Power Four teams as possible to finish with at least three losses. As a general rule of thumb over the next month, if you turn on the TV and there’s a Power Four team with fewer than three losses, it’s probably best for UW’s chances if that team loses.
