A look at the Sounders’ playoff chances with 3 matches left

I was optimistic the first time I looked at the possibility of the Sounders somehow making the leap into playoff contention. I thought that they’d find a way to squeak in by relying on a solid home record and stout defensive performances in one or two away games. They stumbled into the first few of their last 10 matches, losing one and drawing two.

The Sounders were four matches in the second time I checked on their playoff chances. My relatively optimistic prediction for that stretch was 2-1-1 because I expected the team to get just a single point from its two relatively difficult road games. The Sounders blew those predictions out of the water, winning all four matches and launching themselves into a likely spot in the playoffs.

Davis: Under Brian Schmetzer, Sounders finding new ways to win

I initially protected that 45 points would be just enough to make the playoffs this season, weighing the likelihood of the Sounders’ results with those of their fellow playoff contenders. With three matches to go, the Sounders are in fifth place with 44 points. Aside from their massive four-match winning streak, results around the league also tipped in Seattle’s favor. The Portland Timbers lost their last two league matches, and the San Jose Earthquakes lost two of their last three.

Despite the Sounders’ massive run and the unlikely position they currently find themselves in, the playoffs are still not a 100-percent guarantee. Sporting Kansas City, Portland and San Jose are all vying for the last two playoff spots, and even Real Salt Lake (ahead of Seattle by a point) isn’t safe yet. The Earthquakes are the only team besides the Sounders that have a game in hand; the other teams all have just two matches left.

This means that there’s a simple way and a hard way for the Sounders to secure a spot in the postseason. The simple way is to win one of their remaining three matches. Just one, that’s it. It would give them 47 points, which would put them in just over the line. San Jose can’t get more than 46 points total, and if Portland won out and also achieved 47 points, the Sounders hold the tiebreaker (number of wins). My early guess of 45 points to secure a playoff spot could still hold, but it’s now certain that the magic number is 47.

The hard way into the playoffs is for the Sounders to get fewer than two points from their last three matches and rely on other results to secure their spot. If two of the teams battling for those last two positions win out, it would likely knock the Sounders off the 47-point threshold. Most of those teams aren’t in the best of form, but it’s MLS – anything can happen.

Seattle could be without Brad Evans, Nicolas Lodeiro and a handful of other players against Houston next week, which will make it that much more difficult. But if the Sounders can beat a big rival on the road without most of those players, surely they can beat the worst team in the conference at home. The last two matches of the season – visiting Dallas and at home against Real Salt Lake – will be much more difficult. Knocking out those precious three points as soon as possible should be coach Brian Schmetzer’s top priority.

Spenser Davis also covers the Sounders for Sounder at Heart.

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