USMNT vs. Paraguay: Results matter if Americans want to advance

While it hasn’t been the easiest of tournaments for the U.S. men’s national team, the Copa hosts will be flying high after their big 4-0 win over Costa Rica on Tuesday.

As the group stage comes to an end, the U.S. has no choice but to aim for a win over  Paraguay if it wants to progress in this tournament. Colombia is guaranteed to progress because it sits atop the group with six points going into tonight’s matches. The U.S. is second with three points, with Costa Rica and Paraguay filling out the bottom half with a point apiece.

There are plenty of ways the group could shake out, but here’s what would happen to the U.S. based on possible results in today’s matches:

• If the U.S. beats Paraguay, it’s guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals.
• If Colombia beats Costa Rica, the U.S. gets second place in the group.
• If the U.S. draws vs. Paraguay, it’ll take second in the group if Colombia beats Costa Rica or if Costa Rica beats Colombia by fewer than six goals.
• If the U.S. loses to Paraguay, it will be out of the tournament; Paraguay would have four points and the U.S. would have three.

This might seem a little complicated, but it doesn’t have to be. The U.S. needs to finish off Paraguay and leave no doubt. Really, there’s no way that Costa Rica legitimately beats Colombia. Of course, there’s always the chance that Colombia throws the match since the two aren’t played simultaneously, but let’s all hope that’s unlikely.

Either way, the U.S. should soundly beat Paraguay. Despite the 2-0 opening loss, the Americans showed their true quality in the dismantling of Costa Rica on Tuesday. Paraguay drew 0-0 with Costa Rica to kick off their tournament and lost 2-1 against Colombia earlier this week. There are good players on the team, but I don’t think they’re good enough to win this.

U.S.

What to expect: Coach Jurgen Klinsmann went with the exact same starting XI against Costa Rica that he had against Colombia. He was initially criticized for doing this, but the 4-0 result vindicated that selection. I don’t expect too many changes, though Gyasi Zardes may be one that deserves to be replaced in the starting lineup. If Klinsmann does drop Zardes, I expect to see a player like Graham Zusi take his place, especially if the starting formation goes to something like a 4-4-2, which the team changed to halfway into the match against Costa Rica.

One to watch: Sounders forward Clint Dempsey ruthlessly silenced the haters on Tuesday when he single-handedly helped put the U.S. on top. He scored the penalty to open the scoring and later assisted the goals for Jermaine Jones and Bobby Wood. Dempsey may suspect that this could be his last rodeo, and he’s finally pushing himself to get results for his team in this tournament.

Paraguay

What to expect: Paraguay hasn’t had the best tournament, having only scored one goal through two matches. A draw against Costa Rica showed how hard it is for the team to get goals, though it was also a mostly good show by its defense. Paraguay released its lineup a full day early, and it was revealed that Sounders forward Nelson Valdez will not be starting for the third match in a row.

One to watch: Especially in the absence of Valdez, fans will want to keep an eye on Victor Ayala, not least because of his absolute scorcher against Colombia. He’s the kind of player that the midfield absolutely has to keep an eye on because he can pop up out of nowhere and fire in rockets that can change the game. He’s not a constant goal threat, but he takes chances like the one given to him against Colombia and is fully able to put them in the net.

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