Where Mariners’ playoff odds stand after Brewers series
Here's an updated breakdown of the AL West race, the wild-card race and Seattle's remaining schedule.
Brock Rodden of the Seattle Mariners hits a triple on Aug. 19, 2026, in Milwaukee. (John Fisher/Getty Images)
(John Fisher/Getty Images)
The time left for the Seattle Mariners to put together a run to the playoffs is continuing shrink following a series loss to the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers.
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After pulling out a big series win over the Astros in Houston over the weekend, Seattle dropped two of three game to the Brewers on the final leg of a 4-5 road trip.
But it didn’t end up impacting their playoff odds all that much, per FanGraphs.
Seattle entered its series in Milwaukee with a 35.6% chance to reach the postseason and a 26.3% chance to win its second straight American League West title for the first time in franchise history. It’s heading back to Pacific Northwest with 32.6% chance to reach the postseason and 24.4% to win the division. Those odds are both the third-best in the AL West behind the Astros and Rangers.
Below is a closer look at the AL West and wild-card races and the Mariners’ remaining schedule.
AL West race
Despite losing the series in Milwaukee, the Mariners didn’t end up losing any ground and remained four games back of the Astros in the AL West. However, the second-place Rangers pulled closer to Houston and now sit just one game behind the division leader.
As far as the head-to-head division tiebreakers go, the Mariners hold the tiebreaker over the Astros, the Astros hold the tiebreaker over the Rangers, and the Rangers hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners.
If all three teams were to finish the season tied, the division winner would be the team with the best record against the other two – a tiebreaker the Mariners currently hold and have the inside track on clinching.
The Mariners are 12-9 against the Rangers and Astros. They have three games left against Texas and two against Houston.
The Astros are 11-13 against the Mariners and Rangers. They have two games left against Seattle.
The Rangers are 11-12 against the Mariners and Astros. They have three games left against Seattle.
The Mariners can clinch the three-way tiebreaker with two wins over the Rangers or three combined wins in their five remaining games against the Astros and Rangers.
Wild-card race
The series loss caused the Mariners to lose a game in the wild-card chase, as they now sit three games behind the Rangers and Minnesota Twins for the third and final AL wild-card berth.
Four are ahead of Seattle in the chase: Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore and Detroit. Only Detroit holds a lower chance at earning a wild-card berth (7%) than the Mariners (8.2%).
Among all the teams mentioned in this section, the Mariners hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against Minnesota and Baltimore. Texas, Cleveland and Detroit hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners. The tiebreaker between the M’s and Blue Jays will be determined when the teams meet for a three-game series in Toronto next week. Seattle currently holds a 2-1 advantage in the six-game season series.
Schedule watch
The Mariners have the second-easiest remaining schedule in baseball with an opponents’ winning percentage of .458, per Tankathon. Only Cleveland has an easier remaining schedule.
However, nearly all the toughest series left on Seattle’s slate take place over the next two weeks with three-game series against the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox during that stretch, all of which currently hold playoff spots.
After the Mariners wrap up their series against the Red Sox on Sept. 2, 20 of their final 22 games are against teams with records below .500.
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Comments
2 Comments
Where they stand is Kade Anderson is being called up. Cal is hitting .156 and Julio is throwing 2nd outs into the stands. They lost 22-0. TWENTY TWO TO NOTHING. The 22 is bad, but the 0 is worse.
Playoffs? Ha! That's funny! Thanks for the laugh!