What do the Mariners need to do to contend in 2016?

By James Osborn

710 ESPN Seattle

How far away from contention are the Seattle Mariners in 2016?

It’s hard to have watched this team from March to July and believe you could simply tweak the roster a little, roll the dice and come up sixes. However, after reviewing the 2015 season in full, new Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto may see a different picture.

Using OPS+ and ERA+, stats that Baseball Reference uses to assess where a player’s offensive and pitching numbers rank compared to the rest of the league, the Mariners received above-average performances on the year from 13 players who ended the season on the 25-man roster (2 starting pitchers, 3 relievers and eight position players who played in more than 50 games). Of that group, only Franklin Gutierrez and Hisashi Iwakuma are free agents this offseason, and both of whom have an excellent shot of being re-signed nu Seattle.

On the downside, the Mariners have six regulars who performed at a below average level in 2015 (one position player, three starting pitchers and two relievers between 80 and 100 OPS+ or ERA). They received awful performances (less than 80 OPS+ or ERA+) from Mike Zunino, Jesus Sucre and Danny Farquhar.

Let’s do some math.

With 11 returning above-average performers and six below-average performers – including youngsters Taijuan Walker, Mike Montgomery, Roenis Elias, Carson Smith and Jesus Montero – it becomes easy to see why Dipoto believes roster depth will be the No. 1 priority this offseason as opposed to a drastic roster overhaul. By returning these 17 players (give or take), the Mariners practically need to add eighth players – six as starters – to their 25-man roster between their farm system, free agency and trades.

Where to start?

The positions that have no heir-apparent for Dipoto’s 2016 version of the Mariners are center field, starting pitcher (likely two of them), closer, catcher, and a corner outfielder. Finding six starters seems like a lot to fill in one offseason. Frankly, it seems improbable at best when you see roughly $93 million in payroll already on the books for 2016. But here’s where math becomes a great friend to the Seattle Mariners.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners entered the 2015 season with $123.2 million in payroll, and that number is likely to increase to about $128 million because of in-season trades. Due to the Mariners’ incredible influx of TV revenue both locally and nationally, which should net them close to $98 million of annual revenue, you can expect a five to 10 percent increase in payroll. With a modest five-percent increase, that means the 2016 opening day payroll should be right around $134.4 million, leaving a cool $41.4 million to spend to fill those holes.

Back to the original question: is it possible for Dipoto to make the M’s a playoff team in 2016? Again, we must thank math for our hope.

Averaging the top 30-40 salaries of every player by position gives some perspective on what it might cost to fill these six aforementioned roster holes:

C: $4.72 million
CF: $4.84 million
LF/RF: $8.13 million
SP (top 150 contracts averaged): $9.4 million (x2)
Closer: $4.79 million
Total cost: $41.3 million

For a team with a nucleus of superstars already in place, finding league-average guys to fill out the 2016 Mariners roster is very possible. Rebuilding is not a necessity for the Mariners – with $41.4 million expendable, the foursome of Felix Hernandez, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Cano, and the predictions of playoff contention last offseason provide more than enough proof.

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