The stats behind Mariners’ post-trade deadline surge

On the evening of July 30, the Seattle Mariners capped their aggressive trade deadline by swinging a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez.

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Suárez, the most coveted player on the trade market and a beloved member of the Mariners in 2022 and 2023, then surprised the team by joining them on their flight home from Sacramento to Seattle that night.

And since then, the M’s have been the hottest team in the American League. Seattle has gone 9-1 since the Suárez trade, including an ongoing seven-game win streak that’s vaulted the Mariners into the American League’s top wild card and within a half-game of the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West.

Suárez, who belted 36 home runs with the Diamondbacks this year, has actually gotten off to a slow start with the M’s. But with just about everything else going right at the moment, that’s hardly mattered.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind the Mariners’ recent surge since July 31.

The offensive recipe

The Mariners have averaged 5.5 runs per game since July 31, which ranks sixth in the majors over that span. That’s an uptick from where they were prior to that point, when they ranked 12th with 4.5 runs per game.

The recipe has been pretty clear: home runs, walks and steals.

The M’s rank just 24th in batting average (.231) since the Suárez trade, according to FanGraphs. But they’ve more than made up for that with the long ball, plate discipline and aggressiveness on the bases.

Seattle has launched 19 home runs over its past 10 games, which is tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for the most in the majors over that stretch. And the power has come from throughout the lineup, with all nine of the Mariners’ regular starters going deep at least once since July 31. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez have each hit four homers over that stretch, followed by Josh Naylor with three.

As for plate discipline, the Mariners rank second in the majors with an 11.2% walk rate over their past 10 games. Cole Young has led the way with eight walks in 29 plate appearances over that span, followed by Jorge Polanco with six walks and Raleigh with five walks.

Then there are the stolen bases. The M’s are 21 of 23 in stolen-base attempts since July 31, with five more steals than any other team in the majors over that span. And one of the unlikeliest sources is leading the way, with Naylor suddenly morphing into a base-running machine with seven steals over the past 10 games and an MLB-best 11 steals over his 15 games with Seattle. But it’s not just Naylor, as 10 different Mariners have stolen at least one bag during their 9-1 surge.

High-level pitching

Of course, the backbone of this Mariners team is still its pitching. And after injuries disrupted the starting rotation earlier this season, the M’s appear to be rounding back into form as one of the better pitching staffs in the league.

Since July 31, the Mariners rank fifth in ERA (2.97), are tied for first in WHIP (0.94), are first in opponents’ batting average (.193) and are third in strikeout rate (26.9%). During that span, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo have combined for six quality starts and a 2.66 ERA in eight outings.

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