Playoff Race: Where Mariners stand after Game 1 win over Astros

Sep 23, 2024, 8:51 PM | Updated: Sep 24, 2024, 10:51 am

Editor, Seattle Sports

The Seattle Mariners aren’t checking out of the AL West race yet, and they’re also a little closer to a wild card because of it.

On a night when the Houston Astros could have clinched the division with a win over Seattle, the M’s rode a scoreless start from native Texan Bryce Miller to a 6-1 victory on Monday at Minute Maid Park.

Passan: How Mariners are still alive in uphill battle for playoff berth

Don’t get too excited – the Astros (85-72) still can clinch the AL West with a win in either of the following two games of the series. But the good news is if the Mariners (81-76) can avoid that from happening, they’ll have an ace in the hole as they have guaranteed the season series over the Astros. Monday’s win makes the M’s 7-4 against Houston this year, so if the two division rivals somehow tie at the end of the season, the Mariners would take the AL West crown.

That remains a long shot. Not only would Seattle need to sweep Houston to keep its AL West hopes alive, but it would need help from the AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians, who play the Astros in three games to close out the season. With five games to go for both the Mariners and Astros, Seattle needs Houston to not get to 87 wins, while also getting to at least 85 wins itself. If Houston loses out, they’ll be 85-77. If the Mariners win out, they will be 86-76.

The wild card – two of them, actually – remains the Mariners’ best shot at making the playoffs, however.

MLB Standings: Division | Wild card

Most of Seattle’s competition in that race had Monday off, so the Mariners picked up a half-game on the three teams they’re chasing for the wild cards. They’re now 1 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals (82-74), who are tied for the last two postseason spots from the American League. The M’s are also a half-game behind the Minnesota Twins (81-75) in the chase.

Seattle can’t rely on just tying with any of those teams, though. The M’s will need to finish a game ahead in the standings of at least two of them to make the playoffs.

There was one more team alive in the race for the AL wild cards that played Monday. The Boston Red Sox improved to 79-78 with a 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re now 3 1/2 games back of a playoff spot and two behind Seattle.

Fangraphs’ playoff odds for the Mariners are at 11.9% after Monday’s win. The M’s have a 9.4% chance at a wild card, and a 2.5% chance at winning the AL West.

One more note on the Mariners following Monday’s win: Now at 81 wins on the year, Seattle is guaranteed to not have a losing season. One more win over the final five games will give the Mariners their fourth consecutive winning season, tying a club record that happened once in franchise history from 2000-03.

How can the Seattle Mariners make the playoffs?

• To take the AL West, Seattle needs to win at least four more times than the Astros do over the final five games. The Astros’ magic number is two, meaning they will clinch the division with any combination of Houston wins and Seattle losses that reaches two. With the two rivals playing again Tuesday and Wednesday, that means the Astros can clinch with a win in either game.

• To earn a wild card, the Mariners need at least two of these to happen this week:

– Win at least two more games than the Twins.
– Win at least three more games than the Royals.
– Win at least three more games than the Tigers.

Who plays who?

The Mariners (81-76) have two more games at Houston, then finish up with a three-game home series against Oakland (67-89).

The Astros (85-72) play the AL Central champion Guardians (90-67) in Cleveland after their series with the Mariners.

The Twins (81-75) host Miami (57-99) for three games, then Baltimore (86-70), the likely first AL wild card winner.

The Royals (82-74) are at Washington (69-87) and Atlanta (85-71) to wrap up the regular season.

The Tigers (82-74) play the Rays in Detroit, then welcome the MLB-worst White Sox (36-120) to town.

The Rays (78-78) go to Boston after the series with the Tigers.

The Red Sox (79-78) are at Toronto (73-84) before the series with the Rays.

What’s next

The Mariners play the Astros at 5:10 p.m. Tuesday, then 11:10 a.m. Wednesday. Mariners Radio Network coverage can be heard on Seattle Sports 710 AM, the Seattle Sports app and SeattleSports.com beginning at 4 p.m. Tuesday and 10 a.m. Wednesday with the pregame show. For more on how to hear Mariners radio broadcasts from Seattle Sports, click here.