2 things we know, 2 questions we have a month into Mariners’ season

With the Seattle Mariners going into May with a 16-16 record, Seattle Sports' Mike Lefko breaks down a few things we know and a few more we don't yet about the M's.

BY MIKE LEFKO

Apr 30, 2026, 9:25 AM

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We’re one month into the Seattle Mariners’ season. Yeah, that’s right March, you get lumped in with April for this exercise. If Baseball Reference and FanGraphs can barnacle those first few days of the season onto April for their stats, then we can certainly do so here as well. Our standards are high, but not so high that March deserves its own special six-game standalone breakdown.

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So, now with one month down and the Mariners at 16-16, we can dive into what we know for sure about this team and what we don’t yet have a clear sense. This also comes with the caveat that there are nearly limitless things we still don’t know about this Mariners team because of the whole “we’re just one month into the season” part.

What we know

• Cole Young will be here for a long time.

Second base was Cole Young’s job to lose entering spring training, and he has rewarded the organizational belief in him by turning into the most clutch hitter in the lineup. He will enter May with a six-game RBI streak and has driven in 11 runs this year with two outs, which leads all second basemen.

Will there be dips and ruts along the way? Sure. This is baseball. But he is just 22 years old. If we’re already seeing this caliber of improvement after just one MLB offseason, it feels like a safe bet to draw a parallel to what his growth will continue to be as he ventures further into his pro career.

The Mariners have had a different opening day second baseman every year since 2018 but from now on, don’t expect to see a name other than “Young” out there for a long time.

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• The middle of the order will be just fine.

It was just a couple of weeks ago that there was plenty of hand-wringing (and yes, it was warranted at the time) about the power outage in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup. Cal Raleigh wasn’t hitting, Josh Naylor had only squeezed out a couple of hits, and Julio was only coming up with singles. Over the last two weeks, stability has settled in as the core bats in the lineup have found their stroke.

Raleigh has five home runs in his last nine games, Naylor has five multi-hit games in his last 10, and Julio’s 19-game on-base streak sparked a mammoth homer in St. Louis, along with a three-double performance against the Twins. The slog to begin the season is receding and it does feel like more consistent production is in the offing as we hit May.

What we don’t know

• Will the rotation find its dominant form?

This one is surprising, and it’s something we won’t have a definitive answer on until at least a couple more turns through the rotation. Every Mariners starter at some point this season has displayed the dominant, shutdown stuff that has kept this group towards the top when it comes to most quality starts over the last few seasons. Perhaps this is a testament to the high bar they set in the past, but each starter has also had a couple of shaky outings.

Bryce Miller’s pending return from the injured list also complicates matters, not to mention the unknown of what he will actually look like on the mound after a delayed start to this season in the year following a season upended by injuries. The rotation is by no means a liability – most teams would kill to have the Mariners’ stable of arms. It does represent more of an unknown at this point, though, compared to an undeniable area of strength like it has been over the last few seasons.

• Can Brendan Donovan stay healthy?

Brendan Donovan was the prized trade acquisition of the offseason, but a persistent groin injury has kept him off the field for 12 of the Mariners’ 32 games (along with two more he missed due to illness). That’s a tough way to acclimate to playing a new everyday position, and it does make you wonder how his body will hold up at third base, where a variety of lateral motion along with hard-charging stops and starts are needed.

There is also the Colt Emerson elephant in the room. The Mariners’ top prospect is at the doorstep of cracking the big-league roster, and he isn’t coming up to play shortstop this year. If Donovan has to go on the IL again, that might be all the Mariners need in order to give Emerson a shot at third.