‘New school’ stats made Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez a throwback All-Star pick

The Seattle Mariners will have a strong presence at next week’s MLB All-Star Game, as they’re tied with the Detroit Tigers for the most players on the American League roster at four.

Three more Mariners join Cal as American League All-Stars

Cal Raleigh being a first-time All-Star as the AL’s starting catcher was a no-brainer. Starting pitcher Bryan Woo is also very deserving as a first-time All-Star, as is closer Andrés Muñoz making his second straight trip to the Midsummer Classic.

But then there’s the case of center fielder Julio Rodríguez receiving his third All-Star invite in four big league seasons, which was immediately met by at least some head-scratching, if not outright anger from fans who felt their teams had better options for the AL outfield.

The reason for that is Rodríguez has not been at his best with the bat this year. After going 1 for 4 with a double and a strikeout on Sunday, he sits at a .247/.306/.389 slash line fo a .695 OPS with 11 home runs, 13 doubles, 15 stolen bases, and 24 walks to 87 strikeouts. If the season ended today, his OPS would be a career-low, as would his 103 OPS+, which essentially means he’s been just 3% above-average at the plate (100 is always the league average for OPS+).

MLB All-Star Selections: Ex-Mariners and others with local ties

So why then is Rodríguez headed to Atlanta? It seems that the new school of baseball stats has resulted in an old school All-Star selection.

Why it’s “new school”

The easiest thing to point to for Rodríguez making the All-Star team is his WAR total.

WAR takes into account everything – offense, defense, baserunning – and spits out a number that represents how much more valuable a player’s contributions are over a “replacement-level” player (read the MLB breakdown of the stat here).

This year, Rodríguez has 3.4 WAR per Baseball Reference (that’s also known as bWAR), which ranks 15th in MLB, fifth in the AL, and second among AL outfielders. His Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) isn’t as good at 2.4, but it still ranks 61st among all MLB players, 29th among AL players, and ninth among AL outfielders.

Behind Rodríguez’s strong WAR numbers are impressive fielding and baserunning metrics.

He’s tied for seventh among all MLB fielders in defensive runs saved (a stat bWAR heavily takes into account). Per Statcast, he’s 96th percentile in MLB in fielding run value and 77th percentile in baserunning run value. And breaking it down even more, he’s 97th percentile in range (outs above average), 95th percentile in arm strength, 93rd percentile in sprint speed, and 76th percentile in arm value.

Considering Rodríguez isn’t performing to his offensive expectations, it’s actually making how important he is in the field and on the basepaths stand out even more – and bringing to mind some All-Star selections of yesteryear.

Why it’s “old school”

In the 1980s, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Ozzie Smith was a perennial All-Star selection, primarily because of his defensive wizardry (hence his nickname, “The Wizard”). He wasn’t much of a threat at the plate, however, especially earlier in his career. From 1981-1984, Smith was an All-Star every year despite hitting no higher than a .257 average and posting an OPS no higher than .684.

WAR wasn’t really a stat that people knew about at the time, but we have it now, and Smith’s bWAR totals show why he was actually a deserving All-Star – well, most of the time. He was 28th in MLB with 5.1 bWAR in 1982, and 27th with 5.0 bWAR in 1984. And then there’s 1989, where Smith had just a .696 OPS but was so good defensively he was sixth in MLB with 7.3 bWAR.

The Mariners had a multi-time All-Star in the 80s who was a similar case. Harold Reynolds made his first of two straight All-Star Games in 1987, when he was one of two M’s on the AL team. That year he hit .275 with a .325 on-base and .694 OPS, stole 60 bases, and had 2.2 bWAR on his way to the first of three straight AL Gold Glove awards he won at second base.

The 1990s rewarded speed and defense, too.

Cleveland shortstop Omar Vizquel was an All-Star in 1998 when he hit .280 with a .730 OPS, 37 steals and 3.4 bWAR.

And in case you’re wondering if this was limited to the middle infield, outfield defense would get players noticed sometimes. Center fielder Devon White was one of two California Angels to make the 1989 AL All-Star team, a year when he had 4.0 bWAR and stole 44 bases but hit just .245 with a .653 OPS.

At this point, it’s a good time for a reminder of Rodríguez’s bWAR right now, which is 3.4. That’s a stat that continues to accumulate over the season, so he’s already eclipsed Reynolds’ total for all of 1987 and equaled Vizquel’s total for 1998, and will probably beat every other total mentioned here besides Smith’s in 1989.

So is Julio Rodríguez a deserving All-Star in 2025? Maybe more than you thought before. And not only is there precedent for his inclusion on defensive and baserunning reasons, but it’s pretty interesting to see that this more analytics-based era has led to the kind of All-Star selection that was more the norm decades ago.

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