The 2 examples of where this Mariners’ season could go after trade deadline

The Seattle Mariners’ 2026 season has not gone as planned, and lately has been trending in the absolute wrong direction.

Expectation growing that Mariners will trade Emerson Hancock

After the Mariners beat the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0 on July 5 to complete a series win, they had a 47-44 record and led the AL West by 1 1/2 games. But in 19 games since, they’ve gone just 6-13 to fall to 53-57 on the year and 2 1/2 games back in the division. Making matters worse, they’ve hardly felt competitive, having been outscored 92-64 over that stretch to drop their run differential for the year to plus-3 (which, for the record, is still the only positive run differential in their division).

Going into the season, let alone three weeks ago, no one expected to see the M’s sitting under .500, out of a playoff spot and not even ranking as the second-best team in the worst division in baseball when the calendar turned to August. But that’s the reality of where the Mariners are right now.

Yes, it’s disappointing. And alarming. But it doesn’t mean the Mariners’ season is over. In fact, there’s plenty of time to change it, and right about now is a great place to start.

The M’s still have a big opportunity ahead of them with the MLB trade deadline coming on Monday afternoon, and there’s a team from recent history that set a blueprint for doing exactly what the M’s no doubt want to do over the next three months – which is turn their season around, seize control of the AL West, and get hot at the right time to surge into the World Series and win it all.

That example is the 2021 Atlanta Braves.

Reshaping at the trade deadline

To be fully transparent, this isn’t the first time I’ve invoked the ’21 Braves squad in regards to a Mariners team struggling (particularly on offense) into late July. That shouldn’t make the point any less valid, and it may be even more so this time around.

The Braves didn’t look like the most obvious buyers at the ’21 trade deadline, as they were 51-54 and five games back in the NL East at the time. But even after losing superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. and slugger Marcell Ozuna for the season, they saw an opening in a weak division and seized on it, making trades in July for a quartet of veteran bats – Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson – that reshaped their offense and propelled them to a championship.

Who’s to say the Mariners can’t do the same at this deadline? With a overstuffed starting rotation, a loaded farm system and maybe even some expendable position players on the big league roster, Seattle could look to shake up its underachieving offense when it’s even closer to the top spot in the AL West than Atlanta was to the NL East lead at this time five years ago.

I say go for it. Even though the Mariners don’t have real obvious holes at any position on the field, that in a way leaves them open to pursue improvement almost anywhere due to the wholesale underachieving that has been going on offensively.

With Colt Emerson (.196 average) and J.P. Crawford (.212) both scuffling, make a run at Miami All-Star shortstop Otto Lopez, who is second in MLB with a .325 average this season – and while you’re at, see what other bats the cratering Marlins (55-55 overall, 3-13 over their last 16) might be willing to part with.

"Otto Lopez is tearing up the National League, I'd love to see him in a Mariners uniform."

MLB Network's Jon Morosi outlines why the Marlins SS is his top target for the #Mariners at the trade deadline on w/@WymanAndBob. pic.twitter.com/c9MrqAbD52

— Seattle Sports (@SeattleSports) July 31, 2026

Then talk to Detroit about second baseman Gleyber Torres, a rental with a history of slugging against left-handers. Or as ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggested Friday, send Emerson Hancock to St. Louis in a deal for Ivan Herrera (.364 on-base, .747 OPS).

The name of the game is just to find bats who can jumpstart this Mariners offense and raise the floor of the roster – because the path to the playoffs is still very realistic, and getting hot going into October could be all the M’s need to get past a weak field in the American League and into the Fall Classic.

There’s always next year?

There is the possibility, though, that the M’s don’t get back on track over the next few months. Sometimes in baseball, it’s just not your season. And if that were to be the case in Seattle, there’s another big league example from just a couple years ago that the M’s will have a lot in common with – and while it’s not necessarily a good thing, it may provide some solace that disaster wouldn’t be the forecast for the future.

The 2024 Toronto Blue Jays had high hopes, just like the Mariners. They were coming off back-to-back playoff appearances and had a solid core made up of names you’ll recognize, such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, José Berríos and Kevin Gausman. But their season just went sideways, hurt by subpar and injury-shortened seasons for Bichette, Kirk and Springer in particular.

By mid-May, Toronto had dropped to five games under .500 and over 10 games back in the AL East race. The Jays never recovered, falling to a much worse level than the Mariners have dipped to this year. Toronto was 51-59 and 14 1/2 games back on the day of the trade deadline, and – here’s where the story deviates from what the Mariners are likely to do – the Jays sold off a number of veteran pieces in July deals, including infielder Justin Turner and reliever Yimi García to the M’s.

It was a disappointing season for sure in Toronto, but it was just one season. Because as Mariners fans know, the Blue Jays clicked the next year to win the AL East, beat the M’s in seven games in the ALCS, and take the Dodgers to their limit in the World Series.

The ’25 Jays lineup didn’t change much from 2024 – it was certainly healthier, and a few improvements helped raise the tide such as a better second baseman in Andrés Giménez and a healthy Springer excelling as full-time DH. As for pitching, they benefited from a slightly deeper rotation and the emergence of some young arms in relief. And they happened to stick with their manager that they hired during the season just a couple years prior. Still, the ’24 Jays and ’25 Jays on paper don’t look all that different from each other, though they sure played differently.

Hopefully the Mariners follow the blueprint of the ’21 Braves over the coming days and months. In the franchise’s 50th season, and with the division and American League in the shape that it is this year, that is most definitely the preferred outcome. But if things don’t turn around in time in 2026, at least there are the 2024 and ’25 Blue Jays to show that even if there’s a season where everything just goes wrong, there can still be light at the end of the tunnel.

Seattle Mariners news and more

• There’s been a big development in Dom Canzone’s game
• Twins put star Buxton on IL days before series vs. Mariners
• Seattle Mariners’ Rob Refsnyder returns with mechanical tweaks

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