ESPN’s Passan: The 2 stats that have propelled Mariners’ surge

Through 10 games this season, the Seattle Mariners had a disappointing 3-7 record, and the usual problems with the offense seemed to be persisting.

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The M’s ranked 25th out of the 30 MLB teams at that point with just 32 runs, and they once again were having trouble getting runners in scoring position to home plate. They were last in average (.142) and OPS (.418) with runners in scoring position, and 28th in on-base percentage (.256).

Clearly, the Mariners have figured something out in the month since.

Seattle enters play Tuesday with a 20-14 record, which leads the AL West, boosted by a 17-5 stretch after their opening 10 games.

The offense is playing an obvious role. Dating back to April 7, the M’s have scored the most runs in MLB (142), helped by better – but not gaudy – numbers with runners in scoring position: they rank 14th in average (.255), fourth in on-base (.362), and ninth in OPS (.773) in baseball over that time.

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The real key behind the Mariners’ surge, according to ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan, does have to do with the offense. But it’s a bit more cut and dry than you might think.

“To me, the biggest number and the one that matters the most – this is a game that because of the offensive environment is going to be based around how many home runs you can hit and how many home runs you can prevent,” Passan said Tuesday during his weekly conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk.

“And over the last calendar month since they bottomed out at 3-7, Seattle Mariners hitters have hit the most home runs in all of Major League Baseball, and Seattle Mariners starters have allowed the second-fewest. And that right there is how you go on a 17-wins-in-23-games run.”

The numbers Passan pointed to: Seattle has hit 37 home runs since April 7, tied for most in baseball with the Chicago Cubs, while Mariners starting pitchers have allowed just eight homers, which is second behind only the New York Mets (five) over that time. And just for good measure, Mariners pitchers including starters and relievers are fourth in home runs allowed in that stretch with 19.

Not small ball, but…

A popular narrative about the Mariners this year is that they would play small ball in Dan Wilson’s first full season as manager, but the home run barrage – paced by MLB leader Cal Raleigh (12 homers) – seems to tell a different story.

“Not small ball, no,” Passan said. “And thank goodness for Cal Raleigh. He’s got more than a quarter of the home runs by himself.”

Small ball may not be an accurate description of what’s turned around the Mariners, but perhaps there’s a different way to frame what’s going on that gives more weight to Seattle’s production with runners in scoring position.

“It’s situational ball,” Seattle Sports’ Brock Huard said. “It’s playing good situational ball when it calls for to get somebody over and they get them over. When it calls to hit a sacrifice fly, when it calls to get the runner home, when it calls for what the game calls for, they’re doing it better over this stretch of 30-some games than they have the last few years. Can we call it situational ball?”

Passan did agree with that, and juxtaposed it to his recollection of panic about the M’s offense after the first 10 games.

“I think it was my second week this season (talking to Brock and Salk) and there was panic from you guys – and understandably, they were 3-7 at that time and that sort of start is not going to imbue confidence in anyone,” Passan said. “But we talked that day I think about hits with runners in scoring position and how they were dead last, and it’s the same thing about approach, right?

“It’s not the same approach, but it’s the same mentality that there are just certain situations that call for a more mindful way to go to the plate, and I think that’s what the Mariners have done. If you go and look at their numbers with runners in scoring position at this point, they’re like middle of the pack. They’ve done a a really nice job of figuring that out between then and now, and that – plus the power combined, really – are the things that are helping propel this.”

ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan joins Brock and Salk at 8:30 a.m. weekly. Listen to this week’s conversation in the podcast at this link or in the player near the top of this post, and catch Brock and Salk from 6-10 a.m. weekdays on Seattle Sports.

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