Danny O’Neil’s Week-2 NFL picks: Getting back to even

By the end of Week 2, more than half the league will be no better off than when before the season began.

That’s what history tells us, anyway. Over the previous four seasons, an average of 18 teams have been 1-1 after the first two weeks. Always at least 16. Never more than 20.

Which means that at least half of those teams that are feeling oh-so-good about themselves after season-opening wins will be trying to figure out if the glass is half full or half empty entering Week 3.

Look close and it’s possible to see the teams most likely to come back to the pack:

Denver at Kansas City

Previous Peyton Manning models always started quickly. They might stall in December and outright die in January, but they hummed through September. That’s what makes this start so concerning. Denver’s first-team offense didn’t score a touchdown in the preseason (10 possessions). It didn’t score in the season opener, either (11 possessions). Now the Broncos play in Kansas City, where the Chiefs could be a bona fide Super Bowl contender.

Pick: Chiefs 34, Broncos 23

Houston at Carolina

I’ve heard of using bigger-hammer engineering to fix a problem, but has a Mallett ever solved offensive dysfunction? We’re about to find out, apparently. Ryan Mallett was inserted in the fourth quarter of Houston’s awful home lost last week, showing how short the leash is with Brian Hoyer. Now the expectation is that Mallet will start this week at Carolina. Houston’s got a better defense than we saw last week. At least that better be the case.

Pick: Texans 23, Panthers 17

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

The 49ers looked better than anyone expected in their regular-season opener. Looked better metaphorically, that is. Physically, their black uniforms looked like trash bags with red cinch ties on the cuffs. The Steelers have started 0-2 only once in the previous 13 seasons. San Francisco isn’t good enough to make the Steelers look that bad.

Pick: Steelers 27, 49ers 19

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Jameis Winston’s first pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. His second game is against the Saints, whose coach, Sean Payton, clearly spelled out a desire for more pass rush. That adds up for a long afternoon for the Bucs, whose Week-1 belly flop was an ominous sign.

Pick: Saints 34, Bucs 20

Detroit at Minnesota

I’m sure there have been starting quarterbacks who were less accurate than Teddy Bridgewater was in his Week-1 start; I just can’t seem to remember any of them. He looked absolutely terrible. Worse than a McCown, in fact. Or a McGloin, for that matter. But now he’ll be back indoors and he does best in a climate-controlled setting, which is a great sign for the Vikings except, oh wait, they’re moving to an outdoor stadium. Whatever. The way Bridgewater played Monday, he probably won’t be around by then.

Pick: Lions 23, Vikings 16

Arizona at Chicago

This game is going to tell us a lot about the Cardinals. They’re 1-0 right now, but playing on the road against a Bears team that looked much more competent than anticipated, and much more headstrong when it came to running the ball as they suffered a respectable eight-point loss to the Packers. If the Cardinals are going to contend in the NFC West, this is the kind of game they should win. It’s telling, then, that they won’t.

Pick: Bears 31, Cardinals 27

New England at Buffalo

Bill, singular, has won six of his last seven games against the Bills, plural. That would be Bill Belichick, of course, and the Bills’ new coach hasn’t been any better recently. While with the Jets, Rex Ryan lost seven of the last eight games he played against Belichick’s Patriots. Yes, the Bills have a ton of momentum, but Belichick is going to let the air out of Ralph Wilson Stadium, among other things.

Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 20

San Diego at Cincinnati

The Bengals have become one of the most consistently steady teams in the NFL under Marvin Lewis. It hasn’t produced a playoff victory yet. It might not produce a playoff victory ever. But the team plays tough defense, and that will be enough against these Chargers.

Pick: Bengals 23, Chargers 18

Tennessee at Cleveland

Take all the late-night drama out of Johnny Manziel, and you know what you’ve got? Exactly what you saw last week. A player with enough speed and arm strength to conjure up a couple of big plays, but without either the size or the smarts to win consistently in the NFL. The Browns might win this game, but that shouldn’t be seen as validation of either this team or the quarterback.

Pick: Browns 15, Titans 13

Atlanta at New York Giants

The Giants blew that game against the Cowboys when they mismanaged the clock while the Falcons were gifted a victory over the Eagles. The universe has a way of evening things out.

Pick: Giants 27, Falcons 23

St. Louis at Washington

Here’s hoping that Jeff Fisher designates as captains all the players the Rams drafted with the picks acquired in the trade for Robert Griffin III, who is now IIIrd string, by the way. What a debacle, and it couldn’t happen to a better franchise.

Pick: Rams 27, Epithets 17

Miami at Jacksonville

Hard to tell your teal from your turquoise in this matchup of the two teams with the Jazzercisiest uniforms in the league.

Pick: Dolphins 16, Jaguars 12

Baltimore at Oakland

The Raiders aren’t as bad as they have been, which is to say that they’re merely a poor football team as opposed to a mind-numbingly awful one. The Ravens, on the other hand, suffered a bad beat in Week 1 when they lost to Denver without even giving up an offensive touchdown. They even their record this week.

Pick: Ravens 23, Raiders 13

Dallas at Philadelphia

The Giants didn’t give the Cowboys that game on Sunday night, they left the door cracked. Meanwhile, Philadelphia took one in the shorts in Atlanta thanks to a missed field-goal attempt and a late interception. Things are going to even out here.

Pick: Eagles 39, Cowboys 33

Seattle at Green Bay

Seattle’s epic comeback in the NFC Championship Game was the Packer’s epic collapse, and this Week-2 meeting revisits what has become one of the league’s better inter-division rivalries. Seattle has beaten the Packers three times in the previous three seasons, including the playoffs. All those games were in Seattle, though. Now the Seahawks play at Lambeau Field, where they haven’t won since 1999. They’ve lost four in a row there, including a pair of playoff games. The last two games, Seattle has been outscored 90-30.

Pick: Seahawks 31, Packers 27

New York Jets at Indianapolis

This is the easiest game to pick. The Jets are playing with found money, having won their season opener, while the Colts had the biggest face plant of any Super Bowl contender in Week 1. The Colts aren’t a great team, but they’re good enough to walk off with this one.

Pick: Colts 33, Jets 20

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