With Mariners on brink of elimination, here’s what they’re trying to avoid

The final week of the MLB regular season has arrived for the Seattle Mariners, and they’re still alive.

But only just.

With six games to go, the Mariners (73-83) are on the brink of elimination from postseason contention. They’re in the same spot they were Sunday, when they staved off being ruled out for the playoffs by completing a series win at Colorado while the AL West-leading Texas Rangers (78-78) dropped a series finale to the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Houston Astros (77-79) were swept by the Atlanta Braves.

The dire situation of the Mariners, who are five games back in the division, has no chance of improving the rest of the way. Even if they continue to stave off elimination every night going into the final day of the regular season Sunday, the M’s will go into every game knowing their postseason hopes may be gone by the time they return to the clubhouse after the last out.

MLB standings

Here’s what you need to know about the Mariners’ dimming chances to make the playoffs, and what would result in their elimination from October contention.

The tragic number is 2

With 73 wins and six games to go, the Mariners can finish the season with no better than a 79-83 record. The Rangers only need one win to reach 79 on the season, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Mariners, having won the season series between the two teams 8-5.

But to fully ensure the Mariners are ruled out from winning the AL West, the Rangers – or the Astros, should they happen to get back in front of Texas – need to get to 80 wins. The reason for that is a three-way tie between the Rangers, Astros and Mariners is still in the realm of possibility. If they somehow finished the year all with the same record, they’ll have to go to MLB’s three-way tiebreaker protocol.

If either of the three teams had won the season series against each of the other two this season, that would settle it. But the Mariners have clinched the season series over the Astros (9-2), the Astros have beaten the Rangers (9-4), and the Rangers have beaten the Mariners (8-5), so that’s ruled out.

So it would come down to the best combined winning percentage in games between the three involved teams. The Mariners currently have the advantage with a combined 14-10 record against the Rangers and Astros, with two games to go vs. Houston. The Astros are 13-11 against the Rangers and Mariners, so they could jump ahead if they sweep the two-game set in Seattle on Tuesday and Wednesday night. And with a 12-14 record against the Astros and Mariners, the Rangers need to avoid any tiebreaker involving the Astros to win the division.

Put simply, the Mariners will be eliminated with any combination of their losses and Rangers wins that equals two. And even if Texas doesn’t pull that off, the tragic number for Seattle when it comes to Houston is three, because the Astros reaching 80 wins would guarantee Seattle can’t catch them.

Throw out the wild card

The Mariners’ only hope of reaching the playoffs is by winning the AL West for a second straight season. The current holder of the third wild card in the American League is the Chicago White Sox, who at 80-76 have already reached a number of wins the Mariners can’t.

How the Mariners can make the playoffs

The two scenarios for the Mariners to win the AL West and make the playoffs:

• The Mariners win all six of their final games to finish with 79 wins, the Rangers lose all of their final six games to finish with 78 wins, and the Astros lose at least four of their final six games to finish with no more than 79 wins.

• The Mariners tie both the Rangers and Astros at either 78 or 79 wins, with the Mariners winning at least one of their two remaining games against the Astros to clinch a three-way tiebreaker advantage over both the Astros and Rangers.

Seattle Mariners news and more

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• Cohesion will be key as Seattle Mariners move on from 2026

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