Breakdown: Where Mariners’ playoff odds now stand

It was a week full of big wins for the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners, by all accounts, won the trade deadline by landing the two biggest bats on the market in Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. Those two additions bolstered Seattle’s lineup in a major way, while sending a clear message to the players, fanbase and rest of baseball that the M’s are all-in on pursuing a first-ever trip to the World Series.

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The Mariners then followed that up by taking three of four in a pivotal series against the Texas Rangers, highlighted by J.P. Crawford’s walkoff two-run homer on Friday night. And on top of that, the Houston Astros got swept by the Boston Red Sox, which allowed Seattle to move ever closer in the American League West race.

The vibes, indeed, are very good right now in the Emerald City.

So, what does the playoff picture look like now for the M’s? And where do their postseason and World Series odds now stand? Here’s a closer look.

AL West race

The Mariners (60-53) moved within 2.5 games of the AL West-leading Astros (62-50), who have lost eight of their past 10. It’s the closest Seattle has been to Houston since June 9. The Mariners also moved two games ahead of the third-place Rangers (58-55).

AL wild-card race

The Mariners currently hold the AL’s third and final wild-card spot. They are two games ahead of the aforementioned Rangers, three games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians (56-55) and 3.5 games ahead of the Kansas City Royals (56-56).

The AL’s top two wild-card spots belong to the Boston Red Sox (62-51) and New York Yankees (60-52). Seattle trails Boston by two games and New York by just a half-game.

Playoff and World Series odds

With their new-look lineup, the Mariners now have a 38.4% chance to win the AL West and an 81.2% chance to reach the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The Astros are still the AL West favorites, with a 53.8% chance of winning the division. The Rangers’ AL West title odds are just 7.6%.

However, FanGraphs gives the M’s better odds than the Astros to reach and win the World Series.

The Mariners currently have a 16.2% chance of advancing to the World Series, which are the fourth-best odds in the AL behind the Detroit Tigers (19.7%), Toronto Blue Jays (17.7%) and the Yankees (17.5%). The Astros (13.4%) have the fifth-best odds, followed by the Red Sox (8.2%) and the Rangers (4.3%).

As for winning the World Series? FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 7.8% chance, which is tied with the Yankees for the fourth-best odds in the majors. The only teams with better odds to win the Fall Classic are the Los Angeles Dodgers (19.4%), Philadelphia Phillies (11.1%) and the Tigers (8.5%).

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Report: Seattle Mariners promote 2 highly touted prospects to Double-A
• There is a reason why new Mariners 1B Josh Naylor is always so intense
• Salk: This Mariners trade deadline is why they went through rebuild
• Even with distance changed, Cole Young turned heads with huge HR
• Here’s every trade the Seattle Mariners made before MLB deadline

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