Drayer: Mariners head into opening day with strong lineup, rotation questions and playoff expectations

HOUSTON – Six weeks ago, I arrived in camp interested to see how the Mariners would go about the business of getting ready for the season. The question marks were far fewer than they were a year ago, when a number of fans were still fretting about how a man who had never managed professionally would take on a big league club.

Big questions were smashed and swept away last year, but expectations were safe coming off a 76-86 season in 2015 with complete management and coaching turnover. Last year was about setting a foundation of not just players but systems. With that foundation set, the dollars that were spent, the 86-76 record in 2016 and a 15-year playoff drought, those expectations are a little different this year.

The team that has been preparing in Peoria for the last six weeks has been preparing for more than 162 games. Veterans like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, who have been there before, want to get back. Both have done their part, helping the team climb back to respectability the last couple of years and lead the way buying in on Jerry Dipoto’s plan and Scott Servais’ leadership. Both want to be more than just “Robbie and Nellie in Seattle.” They want the national focus on the whole team, winning as a team and, of course, having fun while doing so.

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Two additions that should be part of that focus came to the team together and fall into my biggest-surprises-of-spring category. When Dipoto moved his best realistic trade piece in Taijuan Walker early in the offseason, my first thoughts were that it must have been a targeted player he was going after. There was no sitting back and seeing what offers he could get; Jean Segura must be the guy. Then you started hearing about Mitch Haniger and how when all was said and done, this could be known as the Haniger trade. Segura was coming off a breakout year, which often brings question marks, and Haniger was an unknown. Both impressed from the first day of spring.

Segura had the look of a player who had never stopped playing baseball. He looked in midseason form from the first game of Cactus League play. No adjustments were being made – just go up, hit the ball, perhaps steal a base and be in complete tune with his double-play partner and good friend, Cano. He seriously looked like he didn’t need a day of spring training. Leave for the World Baseball Classic and not get to play as much as the Mariners had been assured he would play? No problem. No beats were missed as he resumed Cactus League play and quickly and quietly moved from the No. 2 spot in the order to leadoff, Servais no doubt wondering why he would experiment with anything else.

The other player in the trade factored into the decision as well. The Mariners have been looking for a good No. 2 hitter for a long time and they may have found it in Haniger. The initial thought was to have the youngster further down in the lineup, but Haniger’s contact skills suggest he is worth at least a good look higher in the order. We will see if this holds up in the regular season as pitchers get more of a book on Haniger. Scouts have pointed out to me some observed weaknesses at the plate, but what could carry him through is his process. Haniger is a mature and studied hitter. He doesn’t appear to be one who will be panicked by a sudden slump. He struggled at the plate last September in his big league call-up, but I have a feeling much was learned from that and that Haniger could turn out to be the most fun young position player to watch since Kyle Seager.

There is plenty to like with the offense. One through five, it’s as solid a lineup you will find in the game. If the bottom of the lineup can find ways to get on base, those players can cause havoc. Mike Zunino could help extend the lineup if what we saw this spring is real. Servais saw Zunino build on the changes he made in the minors last year. If he is able to maintain that heading into the season, the challenge to watch for will be what happens when he struggles. Do you lose him for a full month like the Mariners did last year or is he able to stick with his changes in mechanics and approach and shorten the slump? That would be a major step forward and a huge plus for the Mariners.

The defense will be improved with a steadier player at shortstop and three center fielders in the outfield. Leonys Martin has been surprised a few times this spring to suddenly have company in his territory. I didn’t see any communication mix-ups this spring, but count on a few near misses this year. Jarrod Dyson, Martin and Haniger can all fly and there will be little to no dropoff when Guillermo Heredia spells one of them. This group should be the pitchers’ best friend, taking a significant number of runs away from their ERAs and the other team.

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So about those pitchers. I will start with the good. Felix Hernandez showed up in camp having made physical changes, and with more focus than I have seen in recent years. The buy-in with what the Mariners wanted him to do with pitch selection and sequencing was slow, but it appears he got there as we saw more of the four-seamer as camp went on. He realizes the different look it gives him and how it can help his changeup.

This year will be a test for Felix, who does not seem to want to concede anything on the hill. In his mind, age had nothing to do with underperformance last year, nor did approach. He viewed his leg injuries as what hurt him most and to his credit, he went to work strengthening his lower body. Questions this spring about making changes with his pitching seemed to ruffle his feathers a bit. When asked what he wanted to show to those who doubted him after declaring at the end of last season that he would be back, he answered simply: “Me. Just me. Just pitch the way I pitch every year. That’s all they have to see.”

As for the rest of the rotation, it’s shaky. James Paxton had a good spring, a spring in which he was able to make adjustments quickly rather than spend bullpen sessions trying to get a pitch. He has his pitches, his delivery, experience, preparation and confidence in everything he is doing. Paxton has the look of a pitcher who has put everything together and could have a huge season if he can stay on the field.

Hisashi Iwakuma did not have a good spring and did not finish on a good note, failing to get out of the second inning of his final outing and showing rare, visible frustration on the mound in that game. For Iwakuma, it is all about feel for his mechanics, or “balance” as he puts it, between his lower and upper body, and he appears to be still trying to find it. Kuma said he had it in his second-to-last outing and what he needs to do now is focus on the things he focused on leading up to that start. He is not in a great place heading into the season, but the one thing I have observed about Kuma is that when he does lock in with his mechanics, he locks in for long stretches. Tuesday in Game 2 against Houston would be a good day for that to start.

We know the least about Nos. 4 and 5 in the rotation. Ariel Miranda looked good in his final tuneup and had success against the Astros when he faced them last September. If he is to remain a starter – and there is still thought that he will ultimately end up in the bullpen – he has got to refine his breaking ball. That said, of the nine starts he made last year, he gave up more than three runs just once.

Yovani Gallardo will be interesting to watch. As ugly as some of his numbers were this spring, he did appear to be victimized by spring conditions on more than one occasion. He’s healthy, confident that he has his pitches, and ready to be out of Arizona.

Finally, the bullpen. It was fun to see Edwin Diaz grab the spotlight in the WBC. It was clearly fun for Diaz, too. We have learned a lot more about his personality in the last month and there is no question that the closer role suits him perfectly. He wants the ball, he wants to be entrusted with the win, he wants the ninth to be about him. I think it is the toughest job in baseball, but he embraces it.

Dan Altavilla has had a huge spring and will be given the opportunity to pitch in leverage roles. He brings the added benefit of being able to get both left and right out, something that should help keep Nick Vincent in better right-on-right matchups. Evan Scribner at some point is going to have to give up a run, but it is great for the Mariners to have him from Day 1. They finally have a lefty specialist in Marc Rzepczynski and an intriguing option in James Pazos, who has great stuff but could be a little bit of a work in progress in the big leagues. The bullpen should have some pretty hefty reinforcements coming back in mid-April with Tony Zych and Steve Cishek making good progress. If Shae Simmons has no more setbacks and can return, this pen has future nasty potential.

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For now, 25 men will line up on the third-base line at Minute Maid Park, ready to take the field after opening ceremonies. Six months ago, many of the same players left Houston with the Mariners to fly home for the final series, playoff hopes alive. Paxton had made his final regular-season start but was getting ready to prepare for Game 163 in five days, be it a playoff or play-in game. That game did not take place as the Mariners came up short, their fate largely in the hands of others.

The goal this year is to keep their fate in their own hands. The moves have been made, the work put in, the message shared with those who did not experience the end of last season. The Mariners’ first step towards the next step will be taken Monday night.

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