JOHN CLAYTON

Clayton’s keys: Seahawks must win third-down battle vs Brady, Patriots

Nov 11, 2016, 6:00 AM

The Patriots will take on the Jaguars in the  (AP)...

The Patriots will take on the Jaguars in the (AP)

(AP)

Sunday night’s Seahawks-Patriots game could be a Super Bowl preview, but the odds-makers don’t seem to be buying it right now.

The Seahawks are underdogs by seven-and-a-half, long odds this franchise hasn’t experienced since 2012. Some of the odds-makers’ reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is playing at his best. The Patriots are at home. They’re healthy and coming off a bye week, giving them an extra week to prepare. Plus, the Seahawks’ offense is still trying to figure out what it is.

What’s interesting about this game is that there isn’t as much pressure on the teams as you may figure. The Patriots are 7-1 and running away with the AFC. The Seahawks are 5-2-1 and have a two-game lead in the NFC West. As much as they would like to leave New England with a victory, the Seahawks don’t have to consider this a must-win game.

Both coaches are trying different things. Bill Belichick recently traded arguably his best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins. He’s trying to see if the Patriots’ defense doesn’t lose any of its authority without Collins. The Seahawks, struggling to run the football, are shifting to a run-first offense, and this is the first week Pete Carroll admitted to that type of switch.

Here are four things to watch Sunday night:

A shift in Seattle’s backfield? Apparently, the Seahawks’ coaching staff has run out of patience with the running game. Offensive-line coach Tom Cable said that on seven of the 10 running plays Monday night against Buffalo, the Seahawks targeted the wrong defenders to block. It also appears that the coaches are wanting to move away from Christian Michael and get C.J. Prosise more involved. Michael has 447 yards on 112 carries, but his numbers have been dropping of late. He had 16 carries in Week 7 against Arizona, 10 the next week against New Orleans and only one on Monday night. In the second half against Buffalo, the Seahawks used Prosise more than Michael. Prosise fits better in a passing offense than Michael. The Seahawks need to get through at least another week without Thomas Rawls in their backfield.

Fatigue is setting in with Seattle’s defense. Over the last three games, the Seahawks’ defense has been on the field for 244 plays. That total includes 95 plays (penalties included) in the 6-6 tie with the Cardinals. That fatigue carried over and was noticeable the next week against New Orleans. It didn’t help that the Seahawks couldn’t get off the field against the Bills. Buffalo had the ball for more than 40 minutes and Seattle’s defense was on the field for 82 plays. The key for the Seahawks’ defense is their offense. With this past-first approach, the Seahawks’ offense needs to be on the field closer to 60 plays.

Third down is going to be the key to the game. The Seahawks’ defense has been leaking on third downs of late. Over the past three weeks, Seattle’s opponents have converted 31 of 53 third downs. Over the past two weeks, the Seahawks have had 13 third-and-2 or third-and-1 situations on defense, which are hard to stop. Making matters worse is that the Seahawks are facing Brady, the best third-down quarterback in the league. His quarterback rating is an almost-perfect 158 as he’s completed a league-best 77.1 percent of his passes on third down, going 27 of 35 for 505 yards and five touchdowns. In his games against Seattle, Brady has found ways with his short passing game to move the ball, particularly short passes in the middle of the field. The Seahawks will get a boost with the return of strong safety Kam Chancellor, who will help the communication in the secondary.

Jimmy Graham has a chance to have a great game. Graham has been incredible since coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon, especially on Monday night against Buffalo. He had two one-handed catches for touchdowns and he jumped a defender. Belichick will figure something out to cover him, but his two starting safeties are 5-feet-11. Russell Wilson will see if he can take advantage of some mismatches.

Want more John Clayton? Listen on-demand to his weekday and Saturday shows as well as his “Cold Hard Facts” and “Clayton’s Morning Drive” segments on 710 ESPN Seattle. Also, check out his all-new “Schooled” podcast and look for his columns twice a week on 710Sports.com.

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Clayton’s keys: Seahawks must win third-down battle vs Brady, Patriots