Five keys to a Thunderbirds’ playoff victory over Portland

There may not be a better rivalry in all of major junior hockey than the one between the Seattle Thunderbirds and the Portland Winterhawks, and for the first time since 2006, fans from both cities will get to witness a best-of-seven postseason series between the adversaries whose home arenas are separated by just 157 miles.

Seattle took the 12-game season series for the first time since 2008-09, winning seven contests against their division rival. Half of the games between these two teams were decided by one goal, making it difficult to see the upcoming series being dominated by either club.

The Thunderbirds enter the postseason playing some of their best hockey, winning their previous four contests and seven of their past 10. Portland, on the other hand, has gone 6-3-0-1 in their previous 10 contests, but ultimately enters the playoffs somewhat disappointed as they missed a golden opportunity to slip past Everett and win the U.S. Division for the third consecutive year.

However, as we enter the WHL’s second season, all of that becomes moot as both teams will be rested and prepared for the rigors of playoff hockey. Seattle stacks up well against the Winterhawks, which is something that hasn’t been the case for the past few seasons. To defeat their rivals, there are five things that Seattle must accomplish every night.

Contain Portland’s top line. Every conversation surrounding the Winterhawks begins and ends with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Nic Petan. Along with those two, Portland features Chase De Leo and Paul Bittner, two players who both averaged over a point per game and are more than capable of creating their own chances.

Bjorkstrand led the WHL in points, goals, shorthanded goals, and game-winning goals despite playing in only 59 games. Petan finished second in the league in assists with 74 in only 54 games played. De Leo led the league in power play goals with 18 and Bittner projects as a first round pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.

Portland head coach Jamie Kompon likes to split up the four scorers to create two potent scoring lines, usually pairing Bjorkstrand and Petan while having Bittner play on De Leo’s wing. It’s inevitable that these players will accumulate some points over the series – they had 44 combined in the 12 meetings between these two teams in the regular season – but limiting their production will be absolutely essential.

The Seattle line of Scott Eansor, Nolan Volcan, and Donovan Neuls usually gets matched up against the opposition’s top scoring line, but what will T-Birds head coach Steve Konowalchuk do to contain two elite scoring lines?

It’s possible he could move Neuls off of this line and have him center a second checking line, potentially flanked by Calvin Spencer and Lane Pederson. Or, he may leave the top checking line intact and put center Alexander True between Spencer and Pederson. There are a number of directions he could go, but it will require a strong effort by all 18 skaters and goaltender Taran Kozun to keep the Winterhawks’ elite scorers contained.

Portland has home-ice advantage in the series, so Seattle will have the initial line change more often than not and therefore won’t always be able to get the matchup that they desire. It’s going to need to be a complete four-line effort to ensure that Bjorkstrand isn’t able to average a hat trick per game, as he’s done over his past three games against Seattle with two, four, and three goals, respectively.

Expose a shaky Winterhawks defensive unit. Portland’s top defenders are Keoni Texeira, who was a plus-32 this season, and someone who is very familiar to the T-Birds, Adam Henry. Henry began the season in Seattle before being traded to Saskatoon to clear up the T-Birds’ overage situation. The Winterhawks acquired Henry from the Blades at the trade deadline and he’s been excellent for them, registering eight goals and 10 assists and a plus-21 rating in 31 games.

Even with Texeira and Henry, Portland still gives up far more goals than they’d like. The 237 scores they allowed are third-most among Western Conference playoff teams, with only seventh- and eighth-seeded Prince George and Tri-City, respectively, giving up more. Compared to Seattle, Portland allowed 36 more goals over the regular season for an average of 3.29 per game. Seattle’s per-game allowance was 2.79.

Seattle has talented scorers that can beat the Portland defense, as they did in their final game of the regular season when they lit up the Winterhawks for six goals, including two by Ryan Gropp, who enters the playoffs on the hottest scoring streak of his young WHL career.

Portland scores goals at an alarming rate – they were second in the Western Conference with 287 – but they also give them up in bunches. They allowed 34 scores in the season’s final seven games, which went a long way in keeping them from surpassing Everett for first place in the U.S.

Goaltender Adin Hill led the WHL with a .921 save percentage and has been a pleasant surprise in net for the Winterhawks, but lately has looked much more human than he did at times earlier this year.

Seattle will need to forecheck the Portland defense hard to force turnovers and then turn those turnovers into shots on Hill. If they can keep the pressure on a Portland defense that has shown cracks this season, it will turn into a successful series for the Thunderbirds.

Stay disciplined, but be physical. Emotions run higher in a rivalry series like this than they would in any other game. Seattle has a number of players who will be getting their first taste of playoff action in an atmosphere unlike any they’ve ever seen before. It will be important for the Thunderbirds, both young and old, to stay disciplined in what is sure to be an emotionally taxing playoff series.

However, if Seattle plays too soft, they’ll be surrendering one of the clear advantages that they will have in this series. With enforcers like Evan Wardley and Jared Hauf on their blue line, and grinders up front in Volcan, Neuls, Spencer, and Nick Holowko, among others, the Thunderbirds will have the ability to wear out and intimidate a Portland team that doesn’t have the same size and strength that they do. Unfortunately for Seattle, their top physical presence at forward, Keegan Kolesar, has a broken arm and won’t be playing in this series.

It’s been a constant battle for the T-Birds to toe the fine line that exists between smart, physical play and undisciplined, out-of-control behavior. When Seattle does the former, they usually win. When they don’t, they spend significant minutes in the penalty box and pulling out a victory becomes much more difficult.

Capitalize on your depth. As talented as Portland’s top four players are, there is a big drop off between them and their bottom two lines. Another major factor in Seattle’s victories this season has been contributions from what many would consider their “depth” players – guys like Pederson, True, Spencer, and the more defensively apt individuals like Eansor, Neuls, and Volcan.

The hope would be for these players to keep the top four in check, but if they can generate some offense of their own, it would go a long way in beating the Winterhawks in a best-of-seven series.

Konowalchuk has spoken at length about how impressed he has been with his younger players and the growth they’ve shown over the season and they’ll need to come up big in this series matched up against Portland’s top scorers. Seattle’s top lines will usually face off against Portland’s depth lines, which are made up by guys like Dominic Turgeon, Skyler McKenzie, Keegan Iverson, Jack Flaman, Alex Overhardt, and Mitchell Walter.

It’s been said by some around the league that Seattle is a one-line team led by Gropp, Mathew Barzal, and Roberts Lipsbergs, and that outside of those three the offense is sorely lacking. That can’t be the case against Portland, who is also led by a small group of supremely talented forwards. If Seattle’s lower lines have a better series than Portland’s lower lines, it will lead to good things for the Thunderbirds both offensively and defensively.

Get big contributions from your big names. Hockey can be a complex game, and often you want to look away from the obvious reasons teams win or lose games. But for Seattle to be successful, the core pieces of the roster will need to turn in solid performances every night.

Up front, it starts with the top line of Barzal, Gropp, and Lipsbergs, who have been excellent during the season’s final couple weeks. Gropp only recently moved on to the line and has been scoring goals seemingly at will next to Barzal, but it’s also possible Konowalchuk could move him on to a different line in order to spread out the offense. Whatever he decides to do, it will be important for all three to turn in points every game.

On defense, all-word blueliner Shea Theodore will need to be a force at both ends of the ice as he’ll be counted on to play against one of Portland’s top lines while also quarterbacking the power play and being a major contributor offensively. Jerret Smith, Wardley, and Hauf will need to bring their best every night as they’ll usually be on the ice against at least one of the Winterhawks’ top scorers.

In net, Taran Kozun has been outstanding all season and will need to continue that in the playoffs. He finished second in the league in goals against average, tied for second in save percentage, finished fourth in wins and minutes played, and was named Seattle’s Most Valuable Player on Saturday night. As Kozun goes, so go the Thunderbirds. When he’s on his game, it’s difficult for anyone to solve him – even the likes of Bjorkstrand, Petan, and co.

These are the players that consistently performed for Seattle during the regular season, and they’re the type of guys that opposing coaches gameplan around. When they play the way they’re capable of, it’s hard for any opponent to beat the Thunderbirds.

If the Thunderbirds can contain Portland’s top line, force their defense to crack, play a physical but disciplined game, win the depth battle, and get the contributions they expect from their top performers, Seattle can win this series against their division rivals and advance to the second round for the second consecutive season.