Trust the know-it-some: Seahawks-Packers will be closer than expected
Based on the daily texts of “Jim’s an idiot” and “Jim’s a moron,” I get the feeling that some listeners don’t think I know what I’m talking about.
I’ve got news for you: when it comes to the Seahawks, I do.
Over the last two years, my record in picking Seahawks games against the spread is 25-11-1. In 2012, I killed it, going 15-3 against the spread. Last year I dropped off a little bit – OK, more than a little bit – but I still had a winning record of 10-8-1.
This run of mine gives hope to ambitious blind squirrels worldwide. It’s also encouraging to other know-it-somes like me. We’re irritated with know-it-alls on other sports-talk radio shows who sound like they know everything when, in truth, they don’t.
A know-it-all could not have gone 25-11-1 against the spread in Seahawks games the last two years, though to hear them break down the team day after day, you’d think they know more than the Average Joe, not to mention the Superior Joe, too.
Try it this year and see how you do in every single Seahawks game against the spread. Those guys in Vegas really know what they’re talking about. They’re the ones who set the betting lines, and they are frequently and freakishly accurate.
Case in point, the Seahawks’ season opener against the Packers Thursday night at CenturyLink Field. Seattle is favored by 5.5, which looks too low to me. I would’ve set the line at 7 or 7.5.
The over-under for total combined points scored in the game is 46. I love the over with the Seahawks having Percy Harvin and a more-explosive offense, and the Packers having a balanced offense with Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy, who are potent enough to score against Seattle’s defense, as good as it is.
What’s your knee-jerk reaction to 5.5? The last time a game counted, the Seahawks crushed the Broncos 43-8 in the Super Bowl. Even with personnel changes, if they can stifle Peyton Manning at a neutral site, surely they can stop Rodgers in a home game in front of the loudest crowd in the NFL.
So they should win by 6 points or more, right? In fact, if you consider that the Seahawks are 7-0 in primetime home games under coach Pete Carroll and have won by an average of 18.3 points, they should win by double digits again.
One of the story lines this week is that the Packers should be highly vulnerable because of an injury to their starting center, JC Tretter. His replacement is rookie Corey Linsley, a fifth-round draft choice from Ohio State.
As the thinking goes, the rookie will be overwhelmed in his first start in this hostile place and screw up time and time again, prompting mishandled snaps and false-start penalties.
Problem is, whenever we stress something as a pivotal element in an upcoming game, it rarely plays out the way you think it will.
Another story line: without their injured nose tackle, B.J. Raji, the Packers will have a tough time dealing with Marshawn Lynch. With or without Raji, I’m guessing the Packers will be hard-pressed to limit Lynch because every team in the NFL struggles to stop him.
John Clayton thinks Lynch will outrush Lacy Thursday night, and that to me is the key to the game. If they had issues with their defense last year, the Seahawks occasionally allowed no-name running backs to have big days against them. Lacy’s more than a no-name.
Here’s a know-it-some’s logic on this one: it looks too obvious to take the Seahawks at minus-5.5. When a line looks too good to be true, you shouldn’t bet on the game, or if you do, go with the other team.
I think the Seahawks will win, but I’ll take Green Bay and the 5.5.
Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 27.
The Go 2 Guy also writes for SeattlePI.com and KitsapSun.com. You can reach Jim at firstname.lastname@example.org and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo.