Why Félix Hernández could see a big jump in HOF voting next year
Jan 23, 2025, 11:28 AM
Seattle Mariners legend Félix Hernández’s vote percentage for his first time on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was well short of election. But next year could be a very different story.
How King Félix, other former Mariners did in 2025 Hall of Fame voting
In the Hall of Fame results revealed on Tuesday, Hernández received 81 votes out of 394 ballots submitted for 20.6%, only about a quarter of what he would have needed to reach the 75% required to be elected. The good news, however, is he had over four times as many votes needed for the 5% that allows players to stay on the ballot for the next year.
Players get a maximum of 10 years on the ballot, and it’s not all that uncommon for one with a similar starting point to Hernández’s to eventually rise all the way to 75% before their eligibility is over. For example, Larry Walker garnered 20.3% in his first year in 2011, and finally made the Hall with 76.6% in 2020, his last year on the ballot.
While Walker had to sweat it for the full 10 years, King Félix could be in better shape for a few reasons, as MLB Network insider Jon Morosi explained Wednesday during his weekly conversation with Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob.
Perhaps the biggest reason is what next year looks like. There are no surefire first-ballot Hall of Famers joining the ballot in 2026, with the top names being former Brewers star Ryan Braun, who admitted to using PEDs during his 2011 MVP season, and four-time All-Star pitcher Cole Hamels. Furthermore, when it comes to just starting pitchers, Hernández appears to have the best chance of any who will be on the 2026 ballot besides maybe Andy Pettite, who like Braun admitted to PED usage during his career.
One thing we do know is that Hernández will get a boost specifically from Morosi when he picks his maximum of 10 players on next year’s ballot.
Next year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is wide open
“I’ll be honest – so, I did not vote for him this time around because I really felt as though he would be able to debut on the ballot and stay and get above 5%,” Morosi admitted. “Fortunately, he did. I supported (Brian) McCann and (Ian) Kinsler in an effort to get them to stay around for a second year, but they fell short, and so now I’ve got spaces on my ballot to allocate. I expect that Félix and Pettite will probably be on my ballot a year from now because there’s room.
“There’s not as many of these classic cases of ace pitchers like CC (Sabathia) that we’re going to have coming on the ballot. Really, there’s none. Cole Hamels is the top starter coming on next, and I think Félix has a much stronger case.”
There’s another reason Hernández is likely to make a run at joining Ichiro Suzuki, Edgar Martinez and Ken Griffey Jr. as Seattle Mariners in the Hall of Fame, and it’s how his career numbers will look as baseball’s view of starting pitchers continues to evolve.
“We’re about to go through a time where we reevaluate what it means to be a Hall of Fame starting pitcher,” Morosi said, “because we’re entering this era now where careers are not as long and guys do not throw as (many) innings. As a consequence, they don’t win as many games.
“(Justin) Verlander might get to 300 wins, and now we’re talking about 200 as being the landmark that very few guys will ever get to. As the thresholds start to move a little bit lower, Félix’s peak looks all the more impressive. And if we’re going to move away from a time where we emphasize the compilation of numbers in a way that a Bert Blyleven did or a Don Sutton did… there’s just a dearth of the classic, 3,000-strikeout, massive high innings total kinds of guys. So that’s all going to help Félix.”
For a more in-depth look at Hernández’s bid for the Baseball Hall of Fame, click the link below for a breakdown by Mariners insider Shannon Drayer.
Link: The fascinating Hall of Fame case of M’s legend Félix Hernández
Hear the full Wyman and Bob conversation with MLB Network insider Jon Morosi in the podcast at this link or in the player near the top of this post. Catch Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-7 p.m. on Seattle Sports.
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