How would playoff miss alter Mariners’ offseason plans?

After another disappointing loss to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday night, the Seattle Mariners have fallen behind the Houston Astros for first place in the American League West once again.

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The M’s have dropped three straight while scoring a grand total of four runs. Two of those games were against some baseball’s top pitchers in Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, but it’s still a frustrating sight after just over a week of improved offensive production that coincided with Seattle’s trade deadline acquisitions.

The race between the Mariners and the Astros has been tight for a month now, with both teams jockeying for position but unable to pull away. So a white-knuckle finish may be in store for September, which very well could mean Seattle ending up on the outside looking in for the 22nd time over the past 23 seasons when the playoffs begin.

If that were to happen, does that change the Mariners’ plans going forward? MLB insider Jon Morosi assessed the situation when he joined Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob.

“If they missed the playoffs, or let’s say they barely get in and then they lose in the first round, whatever happens, does that create a different urgency in your mind for the offseason?” Bob Stelton asked.

“I do, and I think that they’re in the heart of their window right now,” Morosi said. “… The unknown is at what point do we know more about what the payroll is going to be? And that is probably in this moment a little bit difficult to answer.”

The Mariners’ window

The window Morosi is referring to is the time frame the Mariners have to be competitive. That window is currently open in large part due to the team’s stellar rotation that is filled with young, inexpensive arms.

“This rotation is probably the envy of the majority of all of Major League Baseball, and we both know it doesn’t last forever,” Stelton said. “You got four of your five in the starting rotation that are, in baseball terms, very cheap. That’s not going to be the case for very long, and the idea that the Mariners are going to retain them all – and that’s assuming they continue on this path and stay healthy – it’s not realistic that they’re going to keep all of them and still be in the spot.”

Right-handers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are all 27 or younger and under club control for multiple seasons. Gilbert, the elder statesman of the quartet at 27, is in his fourth MLB season and under control through 2027. Kirby, 26, hits arbitration after this season and is under control through 2028. Miller, 25, and Woo, 24, reach arbitration after 2026. Both are on track to be under club control through 2029.

“It’s really this year, next year and then we’ll see who they can sign, who they have to trade,” Morosi said. “If they’re at the spot where – I don’t think it would be this offseason necessarily – but if they’re in a position the following one (after 2025) where they start to not have guys signed and their payroll is not increasing, they probably have to make some pretty tough decisions …

“That’s probably where you’re really going to have to consider moving Kirby or Gilbert, in my estimation.”

Listen to the full conversation with MLB Network insider Jon Morosi at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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