Rost: Who’s under most and least pressure during wild-card weekend?
Jan 10, 2025, 3:45 PM | Updated: 5:34 pm
Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings during a 2024 game against the Seahawks. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
The wild-card round of the NFL playoffs features six games over three days and starts this Saturday with an afternoon matchup between the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers before closing out Monday night with a showdown in Arizona between the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings.
Report: Pete Carroll lands another interview for NFL head coaching job
Who’s under the most and least pressure this weekend?
Most pressure: Vikings
Back in September, the Vikings’ odds to win the Super Bowl were longer than all but one team also appearing this weekend (Commanders). They had worse odds than several teams that missed the postseason entirely, including the Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Bears. And yet, here they are. That’s in no small part due to a shockingly stellar season from Sam Darnold.
The 27-year-old former first-round pick signed a low-commitment, one-year deal with Minnesota back in March, and while he was named starter for the team in its preseason opener, the assumption was that rookie passer J.J. McCarthy would eventually be turned to as the future of the franchise. We all know what happened next: McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus tear, and the Vikings found a way to win with Darnold under center … again … and again.
This 14-3 wild-card team was a top-10 scoring team on offense and defense, finishing ninth in points per game (25.4) and fifth in points allowed (19.5). They’re the second-best team in early scoring (second in first-quarter points) and lead the league in interceptions (24).
The Vikings, a franchise which has never won a Super Bowl, may not get this season from Darnold again. His 35 touchdowns are a career high; his 4,319 yards are a career high; his quarterback rating is a career high … you get the picture. And none of these numbers are particularly close to his production as a full-time starter with the Jets (though we all know quarterbacks can develop more in different situations). The Vikings are in a tough division, they racked up their most wins since 1998, their excellent defensive coordinator has been candid about a willingness to take head coaching interviews, and they’re competing in a season where at least one other typical NFC contender — the 49ers — are banged up and eliminated. They hardly feel as fated and fortunate as the Chiefs, but they’re certainly staring at a remarkable opportunity. Will they seize it?
Most pressure: Lamar Jackson
Jackson has an excellent case for his third MVP — an award that may still go to Bills’ star Josh Allen — but any conversation about Jackson’s greatness won’t stop at his NFL honors. Instead, it’ll continue to the crux of any debate: what has he won?
The answer, of course, is a lot of games as the face of the Ravens’ franchise. But never the big one. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have managed to keep two of the best quarterbacks of this generation (Jackson and Allen) at bay when it comes to a championship, but both have had better performances than Mahomes in 2024, and it’s not been by a close margin.
Jackson’s 41 touchdowns are tied with Baker Mayfield for second place, behind only Joe Burrow. And he has the fewest interceptions (four) of the three. But his postseason production (with appearances in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023) hasn’t been as special. He has six touchdowns, six interceptions and a 57% completion rate. He came closest in 2023, when his rushing prowess was especially lethal at times (he picked up nine first downs with his legs), but the Ravens — for some reason — went away from their greatest strength in an AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs. Will they lean into Jackson this time around? It would certainly boost his record as a regular and postseason MVP.
Least pressure: Texans
Houston getting to a Super Bowl would be a peak “defense wins championships” moment. The Texans were second only to the Vikings in interceptions this year (19) and allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game. Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who’s group will face off against Houston Saturday afternoon, said the Texans are “definitely the fastest defense we’ve played all year.”
The offense was less exciting this season. It’s 19th in scoring, 22nd in yards per game and 20th in third-down conversions. The offensive line allowed 54 sacks.
The Texans are in the postseason because their defense has been excellent and they won 10 games, but also because they’re in a division where no other team finished above .500. And that’s OK! They have a young franchise quarterback on a rookie deal, young stars on defense and a young head coach. Their AFC South foes aren’t on the verge of a dynastic run. They’ll be sorely disappointed by a loss to the Chargers should it happen Saturday, but I’d see it as more a learning moment than a losing one.
Least pressure: Matthew Stafford
Anyone else hit their 30s and stop caring about changing out of sweatpants before hitting up the grocery store? Meet this winter’s version of Matthew Stafford. Stafford would be in the “most pressure” category if it was the 2021 postseason: he’d been traded to L.A. that spring and was heading up a very, very talented Rams team that felt they were only a quarterback away. He was 0-3 in his postseason appearances with the Lions and snagged his first playoff win ever with a 34-11 victory over the Cardinals in the wild-card round. Then he and the Rams defeated the Bucs and 49ers before toppling the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.
Stafford wants another Super Bowl. The Rams want another Super Bowl. But Stafford’s legacy doesn’t necessarily rest on whether or not a significantly less efficient L.A. team gets it done this year. And despite knocking Seattle out of the postseason with a win over the Cardinals, Stafford cooled off over his final three games (one touchdown and one interception). No one doubts whether Stafford is talented, and no one doubts the Rams’ stubborn perseverance. They may even upset the Vikings. At their best, this Rams offense can compete with anyone, but I do doubt whether they can be at their best consistently enough to win it all. Doing so would be like finding a $20 bill in your pocket: you didn’t need it, didn’t expect it, but it’s pretty dang cool — and a little lucky — that it happened.
