What the Seahawks’ win over Bears means for playoff chances

The Seattle Seahawks kept their most unlikely path to the playoffs alive on Thursday night.

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The Seahawks’ defense stepped up, making up for an abysmal performance by the offense in an ugly, 6-3 primetime win over the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The victory clinched a winning season for the Seahawks (9-7 record) in their first year under head coach Mike Macdonald, and it ever so slightly boosted their chances of reaching the playoffs.

What exactly did the win do for Seattle’s playoff hopes? Let’s take a look.

Seattle Seahawks playoff scenarios

Ultimately, the win over Chicago didn’t do much for the Seahawks. Seattle’s only path to the postseason is winning the NFC West, and the most direct path is a loss Sunday by the first-place Los Angeles Rams against the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks victory over the Rams the following week. A loss by the Seahawks against the Bears would not have changed that scenario.

However, what the win did was keep the door open for a tiebreaker scenario that the Seahawks are a longshot to be on the positive side of. Seattle now has a chance to still be in postseason contention at the end of the week even with a Rams win over the Cardinals. The Seahawks would still need to beat the Rams next week. In that scenario, the teams would finish tied for first and in a deadlock in the NFL’s first four tiebreaker criteria.

Riq said nope. pic.twitter.com/yQPMf8XEg9

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 27, 2024

The fifth tiebreaker criteria is strength of victory – in other words, the combined winning percentage of the opponents each team has beaten. The Rams currently hold a sizeable advantage in this tiebreaker and can clinch it this week if Minnesota, Buffalo, San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland combine for at least 3.5 wins (a tie would count for one-half of a win). So if Los Angeles gets a win or ties Arizona and receives the combined win total it needs from the teams listed above, the Seahawks will be eliminated from the playoffs this week.

According to NFL.com, the Seahawks’ win over Chicago increased their playoff odds from 14% to 16%. So that would indicate there is about a 2% chance they will overcome the Rams’ advantage in the strength of victory tiebreaker.

Chen 🔟 takes him down. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/SAqksefcbb

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 27, 2024

Here’s a straightforward look at each potential scenario.

• If the Rams lose to the Cardinals, next week’s season finale between Seattle and Los Angeles is a de facto NFC West title game.

• If the Rams win or tie against the Cardinals and Minnesota, Buffalo, San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland combine for at least 3.5 wins this week, the Rams clinch the division.

• If the Rams win or tie and Minnesota, Buffalo, San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland do not combine for at least 3.5 wins this week, the Seahawks will still be alive and have a chance to win the division entering next week’s slate of games. But they will need a number of other games to go in their favor, which would depend on the combined win total of the team’s listed above in Week 17.

Right down the middle. 🎯@JayMy_31's career-best eighth field goal from 50+ this season. pic.twitter.com/B1HtnCxWWw

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 27, 2024

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