Rost: This is the recipe for Seahawks making the playoffs

The odds are in the Seattle Seahawks’ favor heading into Week 15 for just about everything.

They’re the likeliest of the four NFC West teams to win the division, with sole possession of first place strengthened after a win over the Cardinals, and their odds to make the playoffs have jumped anywhere from 65-75%, depending on the outlet.

That’s a lot of green: Seahawks uniforms are Action Green vs. Packers

But this division is far from settled. Nevermind that Seattle holds a tiebreaker over the Cardinals or that the 49ers are banged up; things are still too close for comfort.

So how does Seattle punch it’s ticket to the postseason? Here’s how.

The Seattle Seahawks’ playoff recipe

1. Don’t let your foot off the gas on defense.

The Seahawks are coming off their best rushing performance of the season (176 yards against the Cardinals) and the best game yet for the offensive line (no sacks, five pressures allowed), but there’s still too much volatility with the offense to count on it to carry this group to the playoffs.

Seattle’s in the driver’s seat of the NFC West in large part because of defensive improvements. Good playoff teams have an identity. They also tend to excel at something in spite of weaknesses elsewhere. Seattle’s defense is a huge part of its identity right now, and that will have to be the key moving forward. Consider it the broth of the playoff recipe soup here.

How great is the improvement? Seattle went from allowing 148.3 rushing yards per game over the first eight weeks to allowing just 91.6 over the last five, and that includes three games against top-five rushing teams and four games against divisional opponents. They’ve also been one of the top scoring defenses in football. No opponent over the past five weeks has scored more than 20 points against the defense, with the only two games of more than 20 by an opponent having featured a special-teams return touchdown (New York Jets) and a pick-six of quarterback Geno Smith (Los Angeles Rams). That puts the the Seahawks safely in the top-10 scoring defenses.

Seattle’s offense is facing the No. 6 scoring defense — crafted by Brian Flores — with the Minnesota Vikings on Dec. 22, and the No. 10 scoring defense in Chicago just four days later. I know that Bears defense just allowed nearly 40 points to the 49ers, but Chicago also limited the Lions, Packers and Commanders to 23 or fewer. So Seattle’s offense will need its defense to continue its run of keeping games manageable, because scoring won’t come easy in these last four weeks.

2. Win, but especially at least one of your next two.

“The secret to making the playoffs is to win games? Great logic, Stacy!”

Ok, I hear you. But these next two are especially important when you consider the schedule faced by the rest of the division in a tight NFC West race.

• The Cardinals’ next four games:

Patriots (3-10, .231)
Panthers (3-10, .231)
Rams (7-6, .538)
49ers (6-7, .462)

Average strength of schedule: .365

• The Rams’ next four games:

49ers (6-7, .462)
Jets (3-10, .231)
Cardinals (6-7, .462)
Seahawks (8-5, .615)

Average strength of schedule: .442

• The 49ers’ next four games:

Rams (7-6, .538)
Dolphins (6-7, .462)
Lions (12-1, .923)
Cardinals (6-7, .462)

Average strength of schedule: .596

• Seahawks’ next four games:

Packers (9-4, .692)
Vikings (11-2, .846)
Bears (4-9, .308)
Rams (7-6, .538)

Average strength of schedule: .596

Lesson learned: Seattle has the toughest schedule for the next two weeks, and there’s real opportunity for the Cardinals and Rams to muddy things up entering the final two games. The best strategy? Win at least one of those next two games to increase the odds that you can hang onto your first-place standing entering an easier contest against the Bears in Week 17. As a plus, winning a game against the Vikings or Packers is a statement win for a Seahawks team that currently owns just one victory over a .500 club and would be a likely wild-card round preview.

The two toughest remaining schedules belong to the teams in first place (Seattle) and the team in last place (San Francisco). Meanwhile, the Rams are only a game back and have just one contest against a team over .500 remaining — and it’s their finale against the Seahawks, which could very well be for the NFC West title. The Arizona Cardinals seem out of it thanks to a season series sweep by the Seahawks, but they also have back-to-back games against the two worst teams in football. If Seattle were to drop both of its next two games, the Cardinals could sweep their next two and find themselves right back in it (though Seattle would at least have the edge heading into Week 17 thanks to a tiebreaker).

3. Get some help from the 49ers.

Congrats, you’re a 49ers fan! You don’t want the 49ers to somehow play themselves back into this thing — though it’s unlikely with playoff odds hovering around 9%. But they can help Seattle with a victory over the Rams, the team closest to Seattle in the standings, on Thursday night. You want to bump LA back as far away as possible before that Week 18 finale.

San Francisco is a 2.5-point favorite thanks to home field advantage. Both teams are coming off wins: the Rams with an upset in a shootout over the Bills, and the 49ers with a dominant victory over the Bears.

More Seattle Seahawks coverage

• Seahawks Breakdown: Sizing up the razor-tight NFC West race
• Bump: Why Seahawks’ deep passing game could open up
• Unexpected Impact: Four Seahawks key to surge back atop NFC West
• Coach Macdonald: Players have ‘done everything we’ve asked them’
• The changes that finally unlocked Seattle Seahawks’ run game

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