Lefko: Seahawks at crossroads as a franchise, with Geno at the center

Nov 11, 2024, 9:29 AM

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith looks to pass against the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 3, 2024. (Rio Giancarlo/Getty Images)

(Rio Giancarlo/Getty Images)

Producer, Wyman & Bob (2-7 p.m.)

In the midst of a Seattle Seahawks bye week, there was a lot of time (about 14 hours in fact) to sit and watch everything that happened Sunday around the NFL. You’re welcome for me taking on this demanding task of sitting on my couch all day and having to watch every single game – I’m here for the people.

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There are a lot of things you can learn from closely watching everyone else, and the biggest takeaway I had is that there are only two ways to build a team into a Super Bowl contender.

When the Seahawks moved on from Pete Carroll as head coach, I wrote that it was the necessary step to break the cycle of mediocrity that had hung over the franchise in recent years. Being a middle-of-the-pack football team is the absolute worst place to be in the NFL. No chance of a Super Bowl run, yet not bad enough to acquire meaningful draft capital that can lead to a franchise-changing player.

The Seahawks took that first step, but the next step in emerging from this malaise now involves a roster decision. Do you commit to Geno Smith for another contract or find another quarterback for next season?

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Geno is in the top half of quarterbacks in the NFL. He is accurate and a stable presence at a position where most teams are constantly shuffling the deck to find someone who can win them games. Yet, Geno isn’t good enough to win a game on his own. That’s OK, because there are only three quarterbacks in the NFL right now that are capable of doing that, guys who elevate everyone around them. If you’re not Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen, you need good pieces around you in order to succeed.

Out of the two options here – finding a quarterback as good as those three, or building a complete team with stars at a plethora of positions and as few holes as possible on the roster – the second option is one you can control. Plus, there are a variety of ways to do it.

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are two of the best teams in the NFC. In fact, we saw them play for the conference title last year. Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are not worlds better than Geno Smith, but they have benefited from immense talent on both sides of the ball around them. The problem with this exact scenario is it requires a number of years of being very bad in order to be very good. That isn’t practical for the Seahawks with the timeline of the stars on their roster and the core of young players who will soon be looking for that first big contract.

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A quicker way to build around a good QB involves aggressive trades and potentially a big spend in free agency to supplement it. The Eagles did that for Jalen Hurts by acquiring wide receiver A.J. Brown, and it resulted in a Super Bowl appearance. The Rams did the same thing when they traded for Matthew Stafford. In that case, it was the quarterback who they were trading for, but the team around him was so good that Stafford, as just a slight upgrade over Jared Goff, was able to step right into a Super Bowl-winning situation.

We know where the Seahawks need to massively upgrade: the offensive line. Geno has one year left on his contract after this season. The Seahawks must trade for, sign the best free agent, and likely draft an offensive lineman with their first pick this season. If they aren’t willing to invest like that with this group, then you might as well move on from Geno after this season and enter the darkness that is the long and uncertain path of trying to find a franchise quarterback.

It’s also imperative to do that in one fell swoop because then you know for sure if Geno is or isn’t the guy with the cast assembled. Best-case scenario: a strong offensive line allows Geno to cut down on turnovers, while he maintains his accuracy and the Seahawks’ offense becomes as potent as the best ones around the league. Worst case: Geno doesn’t elevate his game enough and you can’t win it all with him. Oh well, now you have an enviable line situation that can either help a young rookie develop, or you can trade for a veteran to plug in at QB.

Choose your path

If you’re not investing in Geno, then what is the alternative? You’re not getting another veteran. Great quarterbacks don’t get traded or hit free agency, and the caliber of ones who do (Kirk Cousins) would run into the same issues as Geno is currently experiencing here. So, it’s to the draft where the Seahawks cast their lot, which is rife with its own problems, especially in this upcoming class.

Waiting another year and having Geno essentially play under a lame duck contract isn’t going to work either. The team wouldn’t likely be bad enough to be draw a draft pick where you can get the best tier of quarterback, plus the cycle of having to pay players never ceases. In addition to a contract decision for wide receiver DK Metcalf, the rookie deals for running back Kenneth Walker III, outside linebacker Boye Mafe, offensive tackle Abraham Lucas, and cornerback Riq Woolen will be up. After that class gets paid (even if it is just 1-2 guys), the championship window is expedited. You need a quarterback who you are confident that you can win now with, and not one who will need a couple of years before you know whether or not he is good enough. That is the vicious cycle teams that regularly pick at the top of the draft enter: constantly pinning their hopes on quarterbacks and having to repeat the same process every 2-3 years.

The Seahawks are in that dangerous no-man’s land. It feels like they have enough talent and are far enough along where they can win quickly, but if they don’t make significant investments on the offensive line then they might as well tear it all down now. Don’t pay Geno, don’t pay DK, commit to acquiring draft capital and saving a ton of cap space until 3-4 years down the road when those high draft picks have turned into superstars at a variety of positions. That might sound cold and callous, but it’s what the Lions and 49ers did, and it’s what we’re now starting to see out of the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans.

That isn’t a fun option – no one enjoys losing. And it’s why keeping Geno and significantly upgrading around him is the best way to raise the ceiling on what is possible over the next few seasons. The reasoning behind moving on from Pete Carroll was that more was attainable and the path the Seahawks were on wasn’t going to lead them there. It was a bold and necessary move, but now that same reasoning needs to be applied to the roster.

If Geno Smith is the quarterback to lead you to a Super Bowl, do everything to give him the pieces to win with this group. If he isn’t, move on and start anew.