Seahawks Breakdown: Sizing up the razor-tight NFC West race

Sparked by a midseason turnaround on defense, the Seattle Seahawks have rattled off a four-game win streak to surge back into first place atop the razor-tight NFC West.

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With four weeks remaining in the regular season, Seattle holds the division lead at 8-5. The Los Angeles Rams are one game behind at 7-6, while the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers are both two games back at 6-7.

The NFC West is the only division in the league where all four teams are still realistically alive for the division title. All four NFC West teams are within two games of each other, whereas each of the other seven divisions have at least a four-game gap between their first-place and last-place teams.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Seahawks have a 52% chance to win the NFC West and 55% chance to reach the playoffs. The Rams have a 32% chance of winning the division, followed by the 49ers at 9% and the Cardinals at 7%.

Here’s a closer breakdown of the NFC West race. All odds and strength of scheduling rankings are according to ESPN.

Seattle Seahawks

Record: 8-5
NFC West title odds: 52%
Division record: 3-2
Head-to-head: 2-0 vs. Cardinals, 1-1 vs. 49ers, 0-1 vs. Rams
Remaining schedule: vs. Packers (9-4), vs. Vikings (11-2), at Bears (4-9), at Rams (7-6)
Remaining strength of schedule: 8th-hardest

Breakdown: The Seahawks are in the driver’s seat of the NFC West race, but their next two games are against Green Bay and Minnesota – who own two of the four best records in the NFC. The good news is that both matchups are at home, but Seattle is currently the underdog in both games, according to ESPN’s FPI. The Seahawks’ regular-season finale against the Rams could very well end up being a de facto NFC West title game, especially since Los Angeles currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating Seattle on the road in Week 9.

Los Angeles Rams

Record: 7-6
NFC West title odds: 32%
Division record: 2-1
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs. Seahawks, 1-0 vs. 49ers, 0-1 vs. Cardinals
Remaining schedule: at 49ers (6-7), at Jets (3-10), vs. Cardinals (6-7), vs. Seahawks (8-5)
Remaining strength of schedule: 13th-hardest

Breakdown: At the moment, the Rams are the biggest threat to the Seahawks. Los Angeles is just one game behind Seattle and currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Seahawks in Week 9. The Rams travel to face the 49ers on Thursday night, which will have major implications on the NFC West race. If the Rams win, they would put themselves in position to move into first place with a Seahawks loss to the Packers on Sunday night. The Rams then have a favorable matchup the following week against the 3-10 Jets, while Seattle faces 11-2 Minnesota that same day.

Arizona Cardinals

Record: 6-7
NFC West title odds: 7%
Division record: 2-2
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs. Rams, 1-0 vs. 49ers, 0-2 vs. Seahawks
Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots (3-10), at Panthers (3-10), at Rams (7-6), vs. 49ers (6-7)
Remaining strength of schedule: 28th-hardest

Breakdown: The Seahawks beat Arizona twice in the past three weeks to sweep the season series and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams. That means Seattle’s two-game lead over Arizona is essentially a three-game lead, which would be very difficult for the Cardinals to overcome – even with their favorable closing slate.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 6-7
NFC West title odds: 9%
Division record: 1-3
Head-to-head: 1-1 vs. Seahawks, 0-1 vs. Rams, 0-1 vs. Cardinals
Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals
Remaining strength of schedule: 7th-hardest

Breakdown: The injury-plagued 49ers are currently in last place, but they could surge right back into the mix if they beat the Rams on Thursday night – especially with the Seahawks facing challenging opponents the next two weeks. Many wrote off the 49ers as the injuries continued to pile up during their recent three-game losing streak. But as they showed with their emphatic 38-13 rout of the Bears on Sunday, the defending NFC champions can’t be counted out just yet.

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