It’s time for a reality check on Geno Smith as Seahawks QB

Nov 5, 2024, 9:59 AM | Updated: 9:59 am

Quarterback Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks looks to pass during a 2024 game. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

BY ZAC HERETH

Seattle Sports

Patience is running thin amongst a portion of the Seattle Seahawks’ fan base.

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After a three-interception performance by Geno Smith in an overtime loss Sunday to the division rival Los Angeles Rams, calls for the Seahawks to make a change at quarterback are starting to grow.

On Sunday, Smith had one of his worst performances since arriving in the Pacific Northwest. His three interceptions tied a career worst and included a back-breaking sequence when he thew a pick-six near the goal line with the game tied at 13 in the fourth quarter and another red-zone interception on the following drive.

It marked the third multi-interception game this season for the veteran quarterback, who is tied for the league lead with 10 picks thrown this year.

With another loss under their belt, the struggling Seahawks – losers of five of their past six games – enter their bye week at 4-5 and in last place in the NFC West, although only one game off the division lead.

The extended break could be an opportune time to make a switch behind center and go with third-year quarterback Sam Howell, but that decision would be unwise.

Let’s take a look at three reasons why Smith is still who should be leading the Seahawks’ offense.

The difference an OL makes

The Seahawks don’t have a Geno Smith problem. They have the same problem they’ve had for years: an inept offensive line that only makes the job of playing quarterback that much harder. And that would especially be the case for an inexperienced signal-caller like Howell, who led the league an interceptions in his only season as a starter last year with the Washington Commanders.

This isn’t to say Smith is an elite quarterback, or a top-five passer for that matter. But he’s still the top option this team has behind center.

Smith leads the league with 233 completions and 2,560 passing yards, but his 11-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio certainly leaves something to be desired.

However, a look into advanced stats shows just how much effect the struggles of the offensive line have had on the 11th-year pro.

When protected, Smith is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, he sports the league’s third-highest completion percentage at 78.1%, the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage at 1.2% and a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those situations.

PFF grades Smith as the league’s fifth-best quarterback when kept clean, ahead of names like Matthew Stafford, C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff. Only two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and former top-six draft picks Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels are ahead of him.

BACK-TO-BACK JAX. TIE GAME. pic.twitter.com/Z1aKX5d775

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 4, 2024

But when the line doesn’t protect Smith, his numbers – like any other quarterback’s – suffer.

No quarterback has been pressured more than Smith this season. He’s faced 153 total pressures (39.6% of his dropbacks), an average of 17 times per game, and been sacked 28 times, the fourth-most in the league. Yet the lack of consistency in the Seahawks’ run game – a byproduct of the porous O-line and defensive struggles forcing the team to play from behind – has resulted in the veteran leading the league in pass attempts.

Under pressure, Smith has the 13th-best completion percentage at 49.2%, 13th-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage at 4.1% and a brutal 5-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. PFF grades him as the 11th-best quarterback in those situations.

Smith does have a good group of playmakers surrounding him with the likes of running back Kenneth Walker III and wide receivers DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but those weapons can be negated when the offensive line is constantly getting beat.

It’s hard to imagine Howell being any better in this situation, and it could even be detrimental to his development. Remember, at just 24 years old, the North Carolina product is still the same age as 2024 first-round picks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.

Unlucky first half

Smith is on pace for 19 interceptions this season, which is just one shy of his total from the previous two seasons combined. But he’s also been a bit unlucky.

Just about every quarterback is going to have at least one interception throughout the season where the blame lies more on another player (just ask Bryce Young). Sometimes it’s a receiver dropping a pass that gets caught by a defender, other times it’s poor pass blocking leading to throw being affected by contact.

Smith seems to have had an unusual amount of those type of plays through the first nine game of the season.

In Week 1 against Denver, he was intercepted early in the game after a hit to his legs affected his throw.

START US OFF, @alexsingleton49!

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/8pdkaMf01S

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 8, 2024

Two weeks later against Miami, Dolphins defensive lineman Calais Campbell beat two Seahawks offensive lineman trying to block him and deflected a Smith pass high into the air, which was then picked off by defensive lineman Zach Sieler.

In Week 6 against San Francisco, Metcalf made a mistake by breaking up the field on a dig route rather than hard across, which allowed 49ers cornerback Renardo Green to under the cut the route and pick Smith off.

Renardo Green jumps the route for the PICK.#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/nnOk1vN8Q8

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024

And in Sunday’s loss to the Rams, Smith slightly underthrew a pass to Smith-Njigba, but it was catchable and bounced of the receiver’s chest for an interception.

FOURTH pick of the season for Jaylen!

📺: @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/qlaplc5F2Q

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 3, 2024

Smith’s high interception total compared to the rest of the league should be somewhat expected due to how much he is throwing the ball, too. In the NFL, the league leader in passing attempts has also led the league in interceptions in three of the past six seasons. The only two quarterbacks who led the league in attempts but not interceptions during that stretch were former MVPs Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.

A better stat to look at would be interception rate, which at 2.9% is tied for the ninth-highest with San Francisco’s Brock Purdy and Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield. So Smith could do a better job of taking care of the ball, but it’s not quite as bad as it seems.

And despite the miscues through the first half, Smith has still surpassed 300 passing yards four times and completed at least 70% of his passes five times.

A surprising comp

Patrick Mahomes is widely considered to be the league’s best quarterback, but Smith is actually having a fairly comparable season to the two-time MVP who’s leading an 8-0 team.

Mahomes is also dealing with issues around him. Before the Chiefs acquired wide receiver Deandre Hopkins in an Oct. 23 trade (which looked like a pretty good pickup on Monday night), Mahomes was dealing with a patchwork wide receiver room. He threw at least one interception in each of Kansas City’s first seven games, has thrown nine total, and is on pace for 19 this season like Smith.

Seattle’s quarterback also has the edge on Mahomes in a number of statistical categories. His advantages in numbers like completions and passing yards can be attributed in part to Seattle’s pass-heavy offense, but he also has a lower interception rate (2.9% to 3.3%) and is averaging more yards per attempt (7.5 to 7.2) and per completion (11.0 to 10.3). One huge difference, though, is Mahomes has been sacked just 12 times compared to 28 times for Smith.

Nobody is calling for Mahomes’ job in Kansas City. He is obviously a more talented quarterback than Smith, but it’s a reminder that even the best players can struggle and that the talent around them matters.