Breaking down Seahawks’ NFC West title and playoff odds

Dec 17, 2024, 8:33 AM | Updated: 9:41 pm

Seattle Seahawks Devon Witherspoon Los Angeles Rams Demarcus Robinson 2024...

Seattle Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon defends Rams wide receiver Demarcus Robinson on Nov. 3, 2024. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

BY CAMERON VAN TIL

Seattle Sports

The Seattle Seahawks’ four-game win streak came to an end with their 30-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.

So did their grip on sole possession of first place in the NFC West.

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With Seattle’s loss and the Los Angeles Rams’ win over the San Francisco 49ers last Thursday night, the Rams (8-6) moved into a first-place tie with the Seahawks (8-6) atop the division standings. The Rams currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of their overtime victory over Seattle in Week 9, but that season series won’t be settled until the Seahawks go to LA for the Week 18 regular-season finale.

The Arizona Cardinals (7-7) are also still alive, sitting one game back of both the Seahawks and Rams. The 49ers (6-8) are mathematically still alive as well, but for all intents and purposes are essentially out of the race.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Rams are now the favorites to win the NFC West at 53%. The Seahawks have a 35% chance, followed by the Cardinals at 12%. The 49ers’ odds are less than 1%.

What does all of this mean for the Seahawks? First, here’s a quick breakdown of the three remaining contenders for the NFC West crown:

Los Angeles Rams (8-6)

NFC West title odds: 53%
Division record: 3-1
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs. Seahawks, 0-1 vs. Cardinals, 2-0 vs. 49ers
Remaining schedule: at Jets (4-10), vs. Cardinals (7-7), vs. Seahawks (8-6)

Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

NFC West title odds: 35%
Division record: 3-2
Head-to-head: 0-1 vs. Rams, 2-0 vs. Cardinals, 1-1 vs. 49ers
Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings (12-2), at Bears (4-10), at Rams (8-6)

Arizona Cardinals (7-7)

NFC West title odds: 12%
Division record: 2-2
Head-to-head: 1-0 vs. Rams, 0-2 vs. Seahawks, 1-0 vs. 49ers
Remaining schedule: at Panthers (3-11), at Rams (8-6), vs. 49ers (6-8)

Seahawks-Rams tiebreaker scenarios

There’s a very real chance the NFC West could come down to the fifth tiebreaker – yes, that’s right – between the Seahawks and Rams.

Here’s how: The Seahawks split their next two games against the Vikings and Bears, the Rams win their next two games against the Jets and Cardinals, and then the Seahawks beat the Rams in the regular-season finale. If this scenario happens, Seattle and Los Angeles would finish tied for first place at 10-7, prompting the NFL’s tiebreaker criteria to take effect.

1. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, which would be split. The Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 9, and in this scenario the Seahawks would have beaten the Rams in Week 18 to tie the season series.

2. The second tiebreaker is the teams’ division records. In this scenario, both teams would finish 4-2 within the NFC West.

3. The third tiebreaker is the teams’ record against common opponents. In this scenario, both teams would finish 7-5 against the 12 common opponents they faced.

4. The fourth tiebreaker is the teams’ conference records. In this scenario, both teams would finish 6-6 against NFC opponents.

5. That would bring it to the fifth tiebreaker, which is strength of victory – the combined win percentage of the opponents each team beat. The Rams have the advantage at the moment, holding a .473 strength of victory compared to Seattle’s .432. If that were to hold, the Rams would claim the division title under this set of circumstances.

However, under this particular scenario where the Seahawks split their next two games, the strength of victory tiebreaker could come down to which of those two games Seattle wins. If the Seahawks lose to the Vikings (12-2) this Sunday and beat the Bears (4-10) on Thursday, Dec. 26, the Rams almost certainly would maintain the strength of victory tiebreaker. But if the Seahawks beat the Vikings and lose to the Bears, Minnesota’s record could very well be enough to swing the strength of victory tiebreaker in Seattle’s favor.

What this means for the Seahawks

The most straightforward path for Seattle is to win out. But obviously, that won’t be easy.

The Vikings are 12-2 and have one of the league’s top defenses. The Bears are struggling this year, but playing with just three days rest on a likely chilly night at Soldier Field isn’t a walk in the park. And of course, the Rams pose a formidable challenge in the regular-season finale.

If the Seahawks drop a game, it would almost certainly have to be against either the Vikings or Bears, because it would be nearly impossible to win the division without beating the Rams in Week 18. And in the event Seattle splits its next two games, the Rams would also need to lose one of their next two games to ensure the Seahawks still control their own destiny heading into the regular-season finale. That’s because, as detailed above, the Rams currently hold the strength of victory tiebreaker.

As for the Cardinals, they are far less of a concern for Seattle at this point. The Seahawks already swept the Cardinals to secure the head-to-head tiebreaker over them, which means Seattle essentially has a de facto two-game lead over Arizona with three games left.

Is the wild card still in play?

According to ESPN’s FPI, the Seahawks have just a 2% chance of claiming one of the NFC’s three wild-card berths.

Seattle is one game behind the Washington Commanders (9-5) for the final wild-card spot, but the Commanders’ 6-3 conference record is two games better than the Seahawks’ 4-5 conference record, which would make it nearly impossible for Seattle to win a wild-card tiebreaker over Washington. And the next-closest team to Seattle in the wild-card standings is Green Bay (10-4), which already has a two-game lead over the Seahawks, plus the head-to-head tiebreaker after Sunday’s game.

In other words, it’s essentially NFC West title or bust for Seattle.