State of the Race: Why Mariners clearly have the edge in AL West

Would you rather be the Seattle Mariners, the Houston Astros or the Texas Rangers in the AL West race right now?

Don’t worry, it’s not a trick question. Entering Tuesday, the Mariners are the team leading the division. And yes, they’re the correct answer to this somewhat subjective question, at least in my opinion.

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But why are the Mariners in the best spot of the three rivals? Let’s do a little comparison with a handy breakdown, after which I’ll unpack it all.

The AL West race

Seattle Mariners

• Standings: 59-54 record (1.5 game lead in AL West)

• Recent additions: OF Randy Arozarena; IF Justin Turner; RHPs Yimi García, JT Chargois and Jonathan Hernández

• Notable injuries: OF Julio Rodríguez (10-day IL, ankle); SS J.P. Crawford (10-day IL, hand); OF Dominic Canzone (rehab assignment, abductor); RHP Gregory Santos (15-day IL, bicep); OF Víctor Robles (day-to-day, hip); 2B Jorge Polanco (day-to-day, knee); RHP Matt Brash (out for year, Tommy John surgery)

• Remaining strength of schedule (per Tankathon): .491 (21st toughest in MLB)

• Playoff odds (per Fangraphs): 54.9% win division, 58.6% make playoffs

Houston Astros

• Standings: 57-55 record (1.5 games back in AL West)

• Recent additions: LHPs Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson

• Notable injuries: RHP Justin Verlander (15-day IL, neck); OF Kyle Tucker (60-day IL, shin); RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (likely out for season, flexor tendon); RHP Luis Garcia (60-day IL, elbow); RHP Cristian Javier (out for year, Tommy John surgery); RHP José Urquidy (out for season, Tommy John surgery); RHP Kendall Graveman (out for year, shoulder)

• Remaining strength of schedule: .502 (14th toughest in MLB)

• Playoff odds: 38.4% win division, 43.9% make playoffs

Texas Rangers

• Standings: 54-59 record (five back in AL West)

• Recent additions: C Carson Kelly, LHPs Andrew Chafin and Walter Pennington

• Notable injuries: RHP Max Scherzer (15-day IL, shoulder); RHP Jon Gray (15-day IL, groin); RHP Jacob deGrom (60-day IL, Tommy John surgery); RHP Tyler Mahle (near return from 60-day IL, Tommy John surgery); OF Evan Carter (likely out for year, back); 3B Josh Jung (just returned from 60-day IL, wrist)

• Remaining strength of schedule: .492 (22nd toughest in MLB)

• Postseason odds: 6.6% win division, 8.1% make playoffs

Advantage: Seattle Mariners

What does all of this say? To me, it’s that the AL West title is the Mariners’ for the taking. In just about all of these categories, the advantage goes to the M’s.

Obviously Seattle is out ahead in the standings, though the Mariners sure could stand to create some more breathing room when it comes to the Astros. Maybe that separation will come from what the next three categories tell us.

Who had the best trade deadline? Hard to argue against the M’s there. They may have had the most impactful deadline of any team in all of baseball, let alone the division, where the Astros and Rangers weren’t really able to “go for it.” Houston’s addition of Yusei Kikuchi to the rotation is interesting (and also head-scratching considering what it cost to get him as a rental from Toronto) because of how well he pitched in his Astros debut. But other than that, neither of the teams from the Lone Star state did anything on the level of Seattle’s move for Randy Arozarena, and the trades for Yimi García and Justin Turner are looking great to start for the M’s, too.

And what about the injury reports? Gotta feel better about the Mariners there, too. First of all, Seattle’s rotation (knock on wood) continues to be in much better health than Texas or Houston can say. And other than Matt Brash, the Mariners can expect everybody on their list to be back in time to play a role down the stretch. Meanwhile, Houston is really missing All-Stars Justin Verlander and Kyle Tucker, and the Rangers are teetering on falling out of the race entirely while just hoping to get any of their key starting pitchers back.

The only category the Mariners don’t run away with is remaining strength of schedule, but they still have it better off than Houston while essentially being tied with Texas.

Put it all together, and you can see why Fangraphs has the M’s with 16.5% more of a chance to win the AL West than their next-best competition.

So I’ll ask it again: Would you rather be the Seattle Mariners, the Houston Astros or the Texas Rangers right now?

I think the answer is pretty clear.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• The Seattle Mariners’ No. 1 prospect has landed in Everett
• Mariners Breakdown: Trade deadline adds making impact
• Watch: Víctor Robles makes two excellent catches in CF
• M’s Insider: Adjustments pay off for surging Mitch Haniger
• Insider explains why Seattle Mariners were trade deadline winners

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