Drayer: Mariners’ needs haven’t changed, but path to fill them is murky

The Seattle Mariners left the winter meetings carrying the same needs they brought into the gathering in Dallas last week, and despite the moves made by others during and since, the outlook on filling those needs remains as murky as ever.

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Free agent and trade markets are largely unpredictable. With the variables involved in filling 30 major league rosters, they are going to develop at their own pace and set their own paths. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander came into the meetings with concentrated needs, a level of confidence in where their team was that included a big dose of what was seen the final six weeks of the season, and an open mind to dealing closer-to-major-league-ready prospects – something they have preffered not to do – to get them what they needed. They appeared, if not comfortable, at least ready to wait to see what direction the markets would take them.

Where it would appear to be taking them is on a collision course with a tough decision. They do not want to trade a starter. They see the starting rotation as the backbone of their club. If the market is trending toward higher values for starting pitching and they cannot lure hitters to Seattle, either due to what they have to spend or the ballpark’s reputation with hitters, they have to listen to offers and at some point may choose to make a move. A decision may have to be made on whether to make the tough move, which will come with risk, or to dig in even deeper in their belief in the starting pitching and improvements seen with the offense in the final month of the season and go with smaller changes.

For now, the needs remain the same. The Mariners are looking to add a first baseman and either a second or third baseman. There is a healthy number and range of available free-agent first basemen and much fewer on the second and third base sides. While there has been much talk about a possible Luis Castillo for Triston Casas trade and the money it would free up, Casas covers the position of need that has the most free agents available. It’s much tougher to see how the dollars that would come back the Mariners’ way would help at second and third. It doesn’t seem to be the optimal fit, although a trade with the Cubs for second baseman Nico Hoerner, who would fit nicely into T-Mobile Park, could be. Such a deal would leave the Mariners presumably with enough dollars to go after first baseman Christian Walker. There are no guarantees they would be Walker’s choice, however.

It likely would be best to wait and continue to see where the market takes them. It’s a train they can jump off at any time, and perhaps as the offseason continues and more names come off the board, one they can steer. There is also the highly improbable, but they could go supersonic and land star Japanese starting pitcher Roki Sasaki. At that point, a new range of options could be on the table.

Another question worth asking: What if the Mariners are able to draw interest in their prospects, but at spots that are mostly filled? Could we see them pivot and perhaps take an impact outfield bat? Having a relatively open DH spot right now would help, but that would likely mean much more of Luke Raley at first base. Not a great fit, but perhaps an option.

While we are talking about Raley, it is worth noting that surprise deals for little – both in and out of season last year – were two of the most impactful acquisitions made by Dipoto and Hollander. Raley, who was acquired from the Rays for Jose Caballero and earned the league minimum last year, and Victor Robles, who earned a prorated minimum salary before signing an extension, were the leaders (Robles first, Raley second) on the team in wRC+. Yes, they clearly missed on the others (Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco) they spent on last offseason, but nonetheless, impact can be found in different places at different times.

It is no longer early in the offseason, but it is by no means late. There is little question, however, any time now would be a great time for an addition by the Mariners. The Angels, who took eight games from the Mariners last season, have been incredibly active. There’s a lot of ground to make up after winning just 63 games last year, but they are on the board. So are the A’s, who made the surprise move of signing starting pitcher Luis Severino before the winter meetings.

The Rangers, whose moves include picking up third baseman Jake Burger and re-signing starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, are still looking to add. And the Astros, coming off a year where they had a franchise-high payroll and first-time luxury tax, did indeed trade Kyle Tucker, sending him to the Cubs in exchange for Isaac Paredes – who will enjoy the Crawford Boxes – a depth pitching piece in Hayden Wesneski and a potential third baseman of the future in Cam Smith. Despite the loss of Tucker and potential loss of Alex Bregman, general manager Dana Brown’s message when asked pre-trade if the club could win the AL West if they traded Tucker or Framber Valdez, rang almost of a challenge for the rest of the division.

“I think the team is good enough to,” he told Chandler Rome of the Athletic. “We will not make any trades that don’t make sense in terms of winning the division, getting back to the postseason and all that. We’re not trying to break the team down.”

As Brown works to keep his team’s competitive window open, Dipoto and Hollander have work of their own to get done. There have been twists and turns this winter, and only time will tell if they remain on track.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• The Seattle Mariners have a new minor league affiliate team
• There’s smoke around a possible Mariners-Red Sox trade
• Lucky Mariners unexpectedly land very high MLB Draft pick
• The Mariners will have a strong pitch for Japanese star Roki Sasaki
• How Seattle Mariners are being ‘very aggressive’ on trade market

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