4 Takes: Which Mariners hitter should you buy stock in for second half?

The Seattle Mariners enter the second half of the season facing a familiar dilemma.

The M’s are once again gearing up for a playoff push with significant holes in their offense. There are a number of contributing factors to the continued struggles, but a big one is the underperformance of a number of key players.

One way the Mariners are in better shape for second half

Maybe the All-Star break is just what they needed?

A chance to reset at the break can sometimes be the turning point of a player’s season, and the memory of a poor first half can be erased by a stellar stretch run, especially when you’re chasing a division title. So now is as a good a time as ever to buy stock in an underperforming Mariners hitter to turn it around in the second half.

SeattleSports.com writers Zac Hereth, Cameron Van Til and Brent Stecker give their picks below, and we’ve also included what Bob Stelton, host on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, said when asked in his weekly Mariners breakdown video.

One quick thing about the ground rules – we took Julio Rodríguez off the table, as the two-time All-Star seems like the most obvious choice. Now let’s get to it.

Seattle Mariners hitters to buy stock in

Zac’s pick: Shortstop J.P. Crawford

• Hereth: J.P. Crawford led the league in walks and posted the second-best wRC+ among qualified shortstops last season, but he hasn’t been the same hitter in 2024. He has also been a bit unlucky. Crawford’s .248 batting average on balls in play is well below the general .300 average, which shows in his expected stats versus his actual numbers. He’s hitting .209 with an expected .237 average, and slugging .358 compared to an expected .393. Plus, he’s still drawing walks and is sporting a higher hard-hit rate than last season.

This is also the time Crawford took off last year. He slashed .282/.401/.492 with 17 doubles and 11 home runs in 62 games after the All-Star break in 2023, looking like one of the best hitting shortstops in the game. He may not quite regain that form, but I’m not expecting a .209-hitting J.P. Crawford come September.

Cameron’s pick: Second baseman Jorge Polanco

• Van Til: When the Mariners traded for Jorge Polanco in January, they hoped he would be the answer to their long-running revolving door of offensive struggles at second base. It hasn’t happened. The 31-year-old former All-Star has had by far the worst season of his career, batting just .197 with five homers and a .566 OPS in 61 games – including a jarring 32.6% strikeout rate that’s 14 percentage points above his career average.

However, Polanco has too much of a track record to continue struggling to this degree. Over his 10 seasons with the Minnesota Twins, he slashed .269/.335/.446 for a .780 OPS. He posted a 115 OPS+ in each of the past two seasons and a 125 OPS+ during his 33-homer campaign in 2021. Polanco might not return to that level over the second half of this season, but he can’t possibly continue to hit at a 67 OPS+ clip. A decade’s worth of production suggests he’s due to improve.

Brent’s pick: Outfielder/first baseman Luke Raley

• Stecker: Luke Raley has been one of the Mariners’ best offensive “weapons” this season, but when you look at his numbers, that’s a bit of an indictment of Seattle’s lineup. He’s slashing .238/.295/.415 for a .710 OPS – OK numbers, but not exactly what you want from the guy who you can definitively say has been your second-best slugger. Raley’s 10 homers, 10 doubles and two triples in 269 plate appearances are decent, but his lack of walks (just nine) counted by a high strikeout rate (he’s K’d 86 times) are alarming. So is the fact that his underlying numbers (as seen at Baseball Savant) are down in some important areas compared to last season with Tampa Bay.

I look at those Savant numbers and see a lot of room on the way back up to his ceiling, however. Raley had somewhat of a breakout season for Tampa Bay in 2023, which was certainly helped by his barrel percentage (which ranked in the 84th percentile in MLB), average exit velocity (77th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (74th). This year, though, all of those are way down – barrel percentage is 51st percentile, average exit velocity is 55th, and hard-hit percentage is 62nd percentile. His bat speed is high, however, ranking in the 85th percentile this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Raley find his sea legs in his new surroundings a little better over the next few months, so I’m buying that he will look a lot more like the guy who slashed .249/.333/.490 (.824 OPS) with 19 homers and 23 doubles in 118 games for Tampa Bay in 2023.

Bob’s pick: Catcher Cal Raleigh/shortstop J.P. Crawford

• Stelton: I’d say Cal, but Cal is Cal. Cal is never gonna hit for average, he’s not gonna be an on-base guy. You look at his numbers and they’re not great, but he’s timely, as we’ve all come to know and love, and he’s producing.

Outside of Cal and Julio, I’d probably say J.P. Crawford. We’ve watched everybody in this lineup have moments. We’ve seen Mitch Garver with a walk-off, we’ve seen Raley with a nice stretch of a couple weeks, and Josh Rojas at the beginning of the season. Even Mitch Haniger at the beginning of the season was your hottest hitter. Everybody’s sort of taken turns getting hot for brief stretches or big moments, but at this point if I’m looking for somebody for prolonged success, looking like they’ve turned things around, I’m probably bet on J.P. Crawford.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Why the Mariners ‘don’t look at the Astros’ how they used to
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• Salk: Bats that the Mariners could pursue in limited trade market
• ESPN insider’s view on Mariners and Astros’ trade deadline plans
• What Jerry Dipoto said about Seattle Mariners’ need to make more contact