Salk: The 3 Mariners to watch as surprise trade candidates

As Jerry Dipoto, Justin Hollander and the rest of the Seattle Mariners’ top brass join the rest of the baseball community in Dallas this week at baseball’s winter meetings, fans at home wait impatiently to hear what new acquisitions might arrive before the holidays.

Dipoto shares how Mariners are being ‘very aggressive’ on trade market

The Mariners have obvious needs throughout their infield and bullpen, and that has led to significant speculation for the free agents and potential trade candidates that play those positions.

Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner, Christian Walker, Nolan Arenado, Gleyber Torres, Yoan Moncada are all obvious players to connect to the M’s in the game of media matchmaking we see each year. All make sense in various ways and to various degrees. We’ll see if any of them make their way here. We have also discussed the idea of trading a starting pitcher to re-balance the roster with more offense. So that qualifies in the “obvious” category, at least for now.

But every year, we see a surprise or two that doesn’t necessarily fit the obvious needs from the public perspective. With that in mind, I tried to go through the Mariners roster and come up with surprise trade candidates. While there really aren’t many, here are the top three.

Surprise trade candidates for Seattle Mariners

1. Andrés Muñoz, RP

He has one year remaining on his current deal at $2 million, followed by three successive team option years at $6 million, $8 million and $10 million. That is an incredibly team-friendly contract, so any trade would not be about trying to get out from under the expense.

The reason to consider a Muñoz trade would be to a) sell at the peak of his value before it potentially declines; and b) get something significant back that could help elsewhere on the roster. It would be a risk, especially because it would weaken an already-thin bullpen and teams might be naturally suspicious of why you’d be willing to deal a player on such a reasonable deal.

But if you think you can get similar production from a healthy Gregory Santos next year, you could use Muñoz as a chip to either get a productive bat, or (and I’d hate this) get another team to take Mitch Haniger’s salary.

Verdict: I’m not against dealing Muñoz in the right situation, but it would have to be the right situation. I have concerns about his ability to maintain what he’s done and now could be a time to maximize a return, but it should only be to bring back an equivalent player and not to unload one year of a bad deal.

2. Emerson Hancock, SP

This might be cheating to put him on this list since he spent more time in Tacoma than Seattle last season, but it’s time to fish or cut bait with him. I think he can be a very cheap back-end starter in this league, and that isn’t something that the Mariners currently need on their roster – at least not as much as they need more offense or relief help. And if you are not going to trade one of your five starters ahead of Hancock, he is blocked. Yes, you’d like to keep him for depth (you will almost certainly need it next year), but you have Logan Evans and a few other younger arms that have torn up Double-A and should be ready to provide that. This is a situation where his trade value might exceed his value to the Mariners.

Verdict: This seems the most likely to me. Personally, I would prefer to see them part with someone like George Kirby because he could bring back a significantly better return. That would allow the Mariners to slide Hancock into the rotation and borrow from their strength (starting pitching) to improve their weakness (offense). But if that truly is “Plan Z,” then it’s time to give Hancock a shot somewhere else. Especially if he could land a veteran reliever or be part of a larger deal for a bat.

3. Randy Arozarena, OF

This would shock me. Yes, he is owed money, and there are some questions about his interest in being in Seattle. But the Mariners didn’t give up much for him in July, and to trade him now would likely bring back even less. The only reason to do it would be if you were to sign Walker or Pete Alonso (doubtful) and needed to clear the money and put Luke Raley in the outfield full-time. But I don’t see it. He fits this roster too well. He is patient, athletic, and versatile in his offensive skillset.

Verdict: Unless the Mariners shock the world with a big contract for a free agent or trade one of their pitchers for an outfielder that creates a logjam, this is nearly impossible for me to imagine.

One thing that stood out to me doing this exercise: most of their players either are on reasonable deals and/or fit the Mariners’ philosophy well. All three starting outfielders are athletic and on reasonable terms. Raley is a cheap, versatile and athletic first basemen, even if he needs to be platooned. Shortstop J.P. Crawford is on a good contract and would likely have more value to the Mariners right now than anyone else.

One (small) upside of having not spent enough in free agency is that they don’t have a ton of players on bad contracts that they’d want to unload. Even the Mitches, who don’t fit the new style nor the desired production for players making those salaries, are only under contract for one season.

While it’s been infuriating for fans, the team has been very responsible. In theory, the reward for that should be the opportunity to add some payroll and take a chance on a player that could really help – Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, Walker, Alonso. All of those players would provide a massive offensive lift and could help change the perception of the team not just among fans but in league circles.

More Seattle Mariners offseason coverage

• Drayer: Where the Mariners stand as winter meetings begin
• MLB Network’s Amsinger weighs in on biggest need for Mariners’ offense
• M’s and More: What MLB insider Jon Morosi heard before winter meetings
• Salk: No thanks on a Mariners trade for 3B Alec Bohm
• Drayer: Success of three types of hitters show what Seattle Mariners need to target

Follow @themikesalk