Drayer: Where Mariners stand as Winter Meetings approach

Seven days into the month of December and two days before the Winter Meetings are to begin in Dallas, just one lonely entry sat on the Seattle Mariners’ transactions page for the month: 12/05/24 RHP Emerson Hancock changed number to 26.

Seattle Mariners and More: What MLB insider is hearing before winter meetings

This time last year, albeit under different circumstances where it was clear president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander needed to clear salary out before they could spend, they had already made a multi-player trade and four smaller acquisitions, three of which would spend some time with the big league club that year. Two years ago it was Teoscar Hernández signing and Kolten Wong acquired via trade who were added to the roster ahead of the meetings. Robbie Ray, Adam Frazier, Paul Sewald, Kendall Graveman, a good number of the “step-back” adds including JP Crawford, Carlos Ruiz and of course the Thanksgiving acquisition of Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura were all added before the winter meetings in Dipoto’s tenure.

This year, the top acquisition made so far is Austin Shenton, who will compete for a roster spot but is not inked into a position. It’s been that kind of offseason for Mariners fans, although they are largely not alone as the calendar means little with both the free agent and trade markets slow to develop. Where the Winter Meetings years ago were circled as a key time when deals could get done, in this day and age we see markets develop and deals get done later and later. Dominoes must fall and we are not quite there yet.

So, what is there to look for as the meetings get underway next week? Pretty much what we have been observing so far. Little has changed since the end of the season when “good players,” preferably in the infield, were listed by Dipoto as the desired additions for the Mariners this winter. As for what they currently have to spend to fill those needs, the $15-20 million figure – with a portion of that held back for in-season acquisitions – that has been listed by numerous publications is likely accurate. The Mariners aren’t going to share the actual figure, but math can be done and cues can be taken.

“I can’t give you a number, I don’t know what that is,” said Dipoto in late September. “I can tell you we’re not going the other way.”

The good news in Dipoto’s eyes was that unlike last winter when there was great uncertainty with the Mariners RSN (regional sports network) situation, this year the Mariners have a better understanding of the landscape.

“Last year we had a pretty good feeling that there were a number of teams that were in a unique situation due to the RSN issues,” he said. “I don’t know how that is going to play out this season or what it is going to mean for other teams in the league. The only thing I do know going into this season is how it’s going to play out for us and it’s not going to be nearly the concern it was the past year.”

It is not a windfall of dollars but whatever is available or can be made available to Dipoto, appeared to be enough to – unlike last year – make him feel comfortable in the task of adding players this winter. He and Hollander go into the winter needing to add at least two infielders and could also use another established arm in the bullpen. Will it be Justin Turner, Carlos Santana or a surprise at first base? Are they truly comfortable staying in house at second base or are they telling people a combination of Dylan Moore, Leo Rivas or Ryan Bliss will man the position until Cole Young is ready in an attempt to have some leverage when talking to other clubs? Regardless of budget, Dipoto’s preferred method of acquisition while with the Mariners has always been trade. Will the market this winter make that a productive route to go this year?

The Mariners have prospects and, if they choose to make a very uncomfortable decision, starting pitching to trade with the common perception being they could bring in a haul with the latter in particular. Taking into account the early free agent starting pitcher signings – notably Mercer Island native Matthew Boyd getting a two-year, $29 million contract from the Cubs and Luis Severino inking a three-year, $67 million deal with the A’s – this could be favorable for the Mariners, but it is too early to know for sure. It could be a case where the early signees get the bigger dollars and the market will even out as spring training approaches, or it could suggest a reason why Dipoto has yet to make a trade to bring back a bat. Teams may be holding onto their hitters this winter.

If they are, it will be for a second straight year as the top position players by WAR or wRC+ to be traded after last offseason after the mega deal that landed Juan Soto in the Bronx was made were Eugenio Suárez (3.8 WAR, 115 wRC+), Tyler O’Neill (2.5 WAR, 131 wRC+), Luke Raley (2.3 WAR, 129 wRC+) and Matt Vierling (2.6 WAR, 108 wRC+). After that the dropoff was extreme with Kyle Higashioka (1.6 WAR, 105 wRC+) and Mark Canha (1.0 WAR, 102 wRC+) the only players traded with WARs above 1.0 and wRC+ above 100.

It was rather bleak with the bats last winter, but it’s not necessarily the trend as good bats were moved at the trade deadline with the Mariners picking up Randy Arozarena and the Yankees getting a boost with Jazz Chisholm Jr., and the previous offseason with impact players including Soto, Hernández, Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker and Gabriel Moreno all acquired in trade.

While there has always been a premium on good pitching, whether it is the product of the extra wild card, fewer teams resetting or rebuilding, or the current hitting environment in the game, it seems like we are seeing fewer quality big league bats traded. It is still early in terms of the free agent dominoes, which will have impact on trades, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Away from the wheeling and hopefully dealing, other items on the agenda at the Winter Meetings include:

– The results of the Classic Baseball Era Committee vote will be announced live on MLB Network’s “MLB Tonight” at 4:30 p.m. on Sunday. The Classic Baseball Era ballot includes Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant.

– Each manager will have a media session open to all who attend. Dan Wilson will go Tuesday at 11:20 am.

– The Draft Lottery which will determine the order in which clubs will make the top-six selections of the 2025 draft will be held Tuesday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. and broadcast live on the MLB Network. The lottery is made up of eligible clubs who did not make the postseason with odds assigned in reverse order of finish. The Mariners have a 0.53% chance of receiving the top pick.

– The Rule 5 draft will take place Wednesday at 11:00 a.m.

More on the Seattle Mariners’ offseason

• Success of three types of hitters show what Seattle Mariners need to target
• Drayer: Mariners’ offensive hires show different approach to staff
• Mariners’ TV future: Reporter shares more of what he knows
• Is Cal Raleigh dropping his agent good news for Mariners?
• How one ESPN insider sees the Seattle Mariners this offseason

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