Bump: The factors behind Seahawks’ red-zone woes

Geno Smith has had an up-and-down third season as the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback.

Most of the downs have taken place in one particular area of the field: The red zone.

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Smith has thrown a league-high four red-zone interceptions this season, which account for nearly one-third of his 13 total interceptions. He also has just a 48.9% completion rate in the red zone, which ranks 26th out of the 32 quarterbacks who have at least 25 red-zone pass attempts, according to Pro Football Reference.

Smith’s two costliest red-zone mistakes came in an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9, when he threw two second-half interceptions inside the opposing 10-yard line – one of which was returned for a 103-yard pick-six. In a Week 12 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Smith threw another red-zone interception while moving outside the pocket and trying to force a pass into the end zone.

Smith’s latest red-zone gaffe came this past Sunday night, when he threw his fourth red-zone pick of the season during a 30-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Facing pressure on third-and-9 from the Green Bay 12 yard-line late in the first half, Smith backpedaled and lofted an underthrown pass to the corner of the end zone for tight end Noah Fant. Green Bay cornerback Carrington Valentine, who was covering wide receiver Tyler Lockett, peeled off and snagged it for an interception, costing Seattle a field-goal opportunity.

“I understand why he threw that football to Noah Fant,” Seahawks Radio Network analyst and former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus said Tuesday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy. “Noah Fant had leverage on the safety. But he threw a (poor pass) and the (defensive back) did a great job dropping off his assignment and making a play on the football. Geno has to put that football in a place where only his receiver can get it. … It should be his (receiver’s) fingertips or nobody’s.

“And some of the mistakes I see from Geno, he’s backpedaling off his back foot and kind of tossing one up there. … The procedure has to be extremely tight when it comes to the quarterback (in the red zone). The decision-making has to be on point.”

The @packers get the red zone INT thanks to Carrington Valentine!

📺: #GBvsSEA on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/utG0qOJjKA

— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2024

Smith’s red-zone interceptions are just one part of the Seahawks’ red-zone woes.

Seattle also has struggled mightily to run the ball inside the opposing 20-yard line. Starting running back Kenneth Walker III has rushed for just 19 yards and four touchdowns on 19 red-zone carries. Backup running back Zach Charbonnet hasn’t fared much better, rushing for 39 yards and six TDs on 18 red-zone carries. Combined, the two backs have been stopped for no gain or negative yardage on 37.8% of their red-zone carries.

As a result, Seattle sits near the bottom of the league in red-zone efficiency. The Seahawks have reached the end zone on just 52.8% of their red-zone trips, which ranks 24th in the NFL.

What have been the biggest culprits in Seattle’s continued struggles to convert their red-zone opportunities? Bumpus pointed to Smith’s decision-making, the offensive line’s lack of push at the line of scrimmage and the play-calling.

“I think that the Seahawks, one, are turning the football over. Geno’s making poor decisions,” Bumpus said. “And two, there isn’t enough deception or physicality when it comes to this Seahawks offense.”

As Bumpus pointed out, physicality and creative play-calling are strengths of the NFL’s top three red-zone offenses: The Baltimore Ravens (74.1%), the Detroit Lions (70.0%) and the Buffalo Bills (68.9%).

Neither of those traits have been strengths in Seattle’s offense this year.

“The Hawks aren’t a physical team,” Bumpus said. “I don’t think they’re soft – I’m not calling them that. But they don’t have a package that when you line up, you know it’s big-boy football and they’re going to execute. … And they don’t have the most deception.”

Bumpus did like what the Seahawks did two weeks ago in their road victory over Arizona. Facing a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line, they mixed things up with a jet sweep for Charbonnet, who took the handoff around the edge for a touchdown.

Bumpus said he’d also like to see offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb call more rub routes in the red zone, which involve one receiver essentially setting a pick for another receiver.

As they pursue an NFC West title, the Seahawks’ ability to convert in the red zone and avoid red-zone turnovers will be paramount during their closing three-game stretch against the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Rams.

The Vikings are tied for second in the league with 28 takeaways. The Bears are tied for seventh with 21 takeaways and rank third in red-zone defense, having allowed touchdowns on just 48.1% of their opponents’ red-zone trips. And the Rams are sixth in red-zone defense at 50%.

“You’ve gotta get creative down there,” Bumpus said. “And I think the more plays and more experience that (offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb) has with this offense, … the more deceiving you can get. It’s easier to be deceiving than physical, and I think that’s what they have to go off of.”

Listen to the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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