The Seahawks’ next game is their most important — here’s why

After three straight wins, the Seattle Seahawks have moved into the driver’s seat of the tightly contested NFC West race.

A statistical look at the Seahawks’ dramatic defensive turnaround

Seattle is sitting atop the division at 7-5, while the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams are just one game back at 6-6. The injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers are in last place at 5-7.

There are still five weeks left in the regular season, but Sunday’s matchup between the Seahawks and Cardinals in Arizona could very well end up determining the division title.

According to Next Gen Stats via NFL.com, the Seahawks’ current playoff odds are 48%. With a win on Sunday, they would skyrocket to 72%. With a loss, they would fall to just 22%.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ current playoff odds are 40%. They would jump to 63% with a win on Sunday and would plummet to 12% with a loss.

“This could be the deciding game in the battle of the NFC West,” Stacy Rost said Tuesday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

Why is it such a massive swing game?

If the Seahawks win, they would move two games ahead of Arizona and capture the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two teams, having previously beaten the Cardinals 16-6 during their Week 12 meeting in Seattle. Factoring in the tiebreaker, that means the Seahawks would essentially have a three-game advantage over Arizona with four games to go – which would be a very difficult hole for the Cardinals to overcome.

However, if the Cardinals win, they would move into a tie with Seattle and split the season series with the Seahawks, nullifying the head-to-head tiebreaker. Furthermore, an Arizona victory would improve the Cardinals to 3-1 within the NFC West and drop the Seahawks’ divisional record to 2-3. That would, at least temporarily, give Arizona the next tiebreaker over Seattle.

But here’s where things would get really concerning for the Seahawks: If they lose to the Cardinals on Sunday, Arizona suddenly has a major advantage with its remaining schedule.

After Sunday, the Cardinals’ final four games are against the Patriots (3-10), Panthers (3-9), Rams (6-6) and the beat-up 49ers (5-7). The Seahawks’ final four games are against the Packers (9-3), Vikings (10-2), Bears (4-8) and Rams (6-6).

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Seattle’s remaining schedule is the seventh-toughest, while Arizona’s is the 27th.

“After (Sunday), the Cardinals could win three out of their next four – if not four out of their next four, because we know the Niners are banged up,” former NFL wide receiver Michael Bumpus said.

“You have to win this game against the Cardinals,” he added. “You have to do it. You’ll own the tiebreaker. You’ll put yourself in position to win the division. And the only way you’re getting in the playoffs is if you win the division.”

As Bumpus pointed out, the Rams are still very much in the mix, too. But Los Angeles has a tough matchup on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, who are 10-2 and riding a seven-game win streak. If the Seahawks win on Sunday and the Rams lose, Seattle would move two games ahead of Los Angeles with four games to go.

The difference between the Rams and the Cardinals is that Los Angeles beat Seattle in Week 9, which currently gives the Rams the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks. Seattle and Los Angeles square off again in their Week 18 regular-season finale in Southern California.

“The Rams always play their best against the Seahawks,” Bumpus said. “This (division race) is going to be a cluster… The NFC West should be the division that everyone is watching toward the end of the season.”

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