Seahawks can exploit Cowboys’ defense in a high-scoring affair
We’ve reached a point where if I’m anyone but me, I can’t wait to see who the guy who writes this weekly post is picking in the Seahawks game.
I’ve got fistfuls of cash in both hands, standing in line outside the Mirage Hotel and Casino sports book, waiting for the pick. I know as soon as I get the idiot’s pick, all I have to do is take the other team for a guaranteed winner.
After taking the Redskins and 7.5 points last Monday, I’m 0-4 in picking Seahawks games against the spread.
I’ve gone from seeing the future – 15-3 against the spread in Seahawks games in 2012 – to being absolutely clueless.
This week the Seahawks are favored by 8 over the Cowboys. In their last 18 home games, the Seahawks have gone 17-1, winning by an average score of 30-13.
The Seahawks should be able to move the ball whenever they want to against the Cowboys, who are last in the league, allowing an average of 6.4 yards per play.
Dallas has stopped some drives with turnovers, but the Seahawks don’t give up the ball very often – Russell Wilson has thrown only one interception this year.
DeMarco Murray has rushed for more than 100 yards in five consecutive games. The Seahawks are No. 1 in the NFL in run defense, allowing 62 yards a game. John Clayton thinks Murray will run for 85 yards on Sunday.
If it’s under that, the Cowboys will struggle. If it’s over that, Tony Romo will have manageable second- and third-down situations, and the Cowboys will stay in the game and maybe even have a chance to win it in the fourth quarter.
I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Seattle’s pass defense to this point. If you’re the Legion of Boom, I don’t care how hot it is in San Diego, you don’t allow Philip Rivers to carve you up the way he did. And I know he’s future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning, you still don’t allow him to drive his team 80 yards with no timeouts in 41 seconds for a game-tying score on your home field. Plus you don’t allow Kirk Cousins to get his team back in the game with two long passes to DeSean Jackson.
The Seahawks’ defense is 22nd in passing yards allowed. If you’re going to pop off about how good you are all the time, like the Legion of Boom does, shouldn’t you be better than that?
I’m also wondering about the impact if center Max Unger can’t play because of a sprained foot. It’s a line that will also be without injured tight end Zach Miller for a second straight game.
There are doubts about the Cowboys being as good as their 4-1 record – the four consecutive wins have come against teams with a combined 7-13 record.
Dallas has a balanced offense with a run game that can keep the chains and the clock moving, limiting opportunities for Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin.
Then again, the same could be said for Seattle’s offense. I’m guessing Lynch will top the century mark on Sunday.
It shapes up as a high-scoring game, and I think the Seahawks will be ahead by two scores in the final two minutes, but Dallas will get the classic backdoor cover with a supposedly meaningless touchdown that is actually quite meaningful to anyone who has the Cowboys and 8.
Prediction: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 27
Season record against the spread: 0-4
The Go 2 Guy also writes for SeattlePI.com and KitsapSun.com. You can reach Jim at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @cougsgo.