Moore: Seahawks are top seed, but can you rank them as NFC’s best 11-3 team?
Dec 17, 2019, 10:45 AM
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Until this weekend at least, the Seahawks are the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the playoffs. This is the best news ever because we all know that the three times the Seahawks played in the Super Bowl, they made it as a No. 1 seed, benefiting from a bye and two home games. Since the 2005 season, when they made their first trip to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are 10-0 in the playoffs at CenturyLink Field.
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So it drives home the importance of getting the No. 1 seed again. But this is also a year in which the NFC appears to be wide open. If the Vikings or Packers are the No. 6 seed with a 12-4 record, you’d have to give them a more-than-reasonable chance of winning three straight road games and going to the Super Bowl.
And if the Seahawks finish 12-4 and are the No. 5 seed, you’d still have to like their chances – they’ve proven they can win on the road, posting an all-time franchise-best road record of 7-1 this year. They’ve also been terrific in close games, and there are sure to be many of those in the playoffs with equally matched teams. The Seahawks are the second team in NFL history to post 10 one-score wins – games that end with an eight-point difference or less. It’s been 41 years since it happened the last time with a team that became the Tennessee Titans but were known as the Houston Oilers in 1978.
I wouldn’t rule out the worst of the six NFC playoff teams if it’s Dallas that ends up winning the NFC East. If it’s the Eagles, I’d rule them out, but the Cowboys have a shot, even if they win the NFC East at 8-8 since they’ll host at least one playoff game and have Dak Prescott, who could lead Dallas on a long postseason run.
As it stands now, there are four NFC teams with 11-3 records, and they’re ranked 1, 2, 3 and 5 in the playoff seedings. Following the Seahawks at No. 1 are the Packers at No. 2, the Saints at No. 3 and the 49ers at No. 5. The NFC East champion will be No. 4.
The tiebreaker situation is confusing, but it’s favorable for Seattle. In a two-way tie, they win over the Packers but lose to the Saints. In a three-way tie with the Packers and Saints, they win that one too. It’s weird, but if you’re a 12, you should root for Seattle, Green Bay AND New Orleans to win out so they can remain tied at 13-3. Or you could hope for New Orleans to lose at Tennessee on Sunday and Green Bay to lose on Monday to Minnesota and eliminate tie-breakers altogether if the Seahawks beat Arizona this Sunday and San Francisco next Sunday.
It will sort itself out in two weeks, but where would you rank the four 11-3 teams now, regardless of where they’re seeded? Here’s my stab at it:
1) New Orleans: Drew Brees just went 29 for 30 against the Colts on Monday night and passed Peyton Manning in all-time touchdown passes with 541. I think the football gods owe one to the Saints after taking away a Super Bowl appearance because of a non-call on pass interference against the Rams last year. They beat the Seahawks with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and are, obviously, even better with Brees. Then again, you could argue that it’s a flimsy premise to make the Saints No. 1 since they lost to the 49ers two weeks ago and suffered a 26-9 loss to a 5-9 Atlanta team a month ago. But I’m putting them at No. 1 anyway.
2) San Francisco: I’m throwing out the 49ers’ loss to the Falcons last Sunday because they were really banged up coming off a three-game stretch against Green Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans. It was also a huge letdown spot, and the Falcons took advantage of it. If the 49ers get multiple injured players back, they’ll be tough to beat in the playoffs because they have the best NFC’s best defense. Though he had a terrific game against the Saints, Jimmy Garoppolo could falter in a tight playoff game because he’s never been in that situation before.
3) Seattle: I haven’t totally bought into the Seahawks because of their defense, ranking 27th overall and 29th in pass defense. You also know about their lack of a pass rush with only 24 sacks. A turnover differential of +13 has kept them afloat, as have Russell Wilson, Chris Carson and Tyler Lockett. I go back and forth with the Seahawks, sometimes thinking they could go to the Super Bowl and other times thinking they’re fool’s gold.
4) Green Bay: Even Aaron Rodgers talked this week about the Packers being disrespected. His stats don’t show it, but Rodgers doesn’t seem quite the same this year, missing receivers he would have hit in the past and favoring shorter passes over longer ones more often than not. The Packers, like the Seahawks, have a questionable defense. And anyone who saw the Packers’ pitiful effort in a Sunday night game against the 49ers four weeks ago has to wonder how good they really are.
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