BRENT STECKER

Table Setter: Mariners have questions to answer after backing into break

Jul 16, 2018, 1:10 AM

The Mariners' offense is scoring just 3.08 runs per game in July. (AP)...

The Mariners' offense is scoring just 3.08 runs per game in July. (AP)

(AP)

The Mariners had a banner first half of the 2018 season.

They enter the All-Star break with a 58-39 record, placing them in position for the American League’s second wild card and just five games out of first place in the AL West behind the Houston Astros. They’re sending the MLB’s leading closer, the closest thing to a right-handed David Ortiz, and two emerging stars they basically stole from Arizona in a 2016 trade to the Midsummer Classic in Washington, D.C. Their starting rotation has outperformed any expectations from prior to the season.

The Mariners don’t enter the All-Star break feeling like a team that has taken the majors by surprise, however. You can thank the Colorado Rockies for that, who took five of six from Seattle since Friday, July 6 (including a walkoff win Sunday on Trevor Story’s home run), and give the Los Angeles Angels some credit as they also had a hand in the Mariners losing seven of their last nine games.

If you’re the Mariners, hopefully a five-day break from play when you’re playing arguably your worst baseball of the year is exactly what the doctor ordered. It might also give you a lot of time to ponder questions like these.

Is the starting rotation out of gas?

On July 10 in Anaheim, the Mariners scored three runs in the top of the first inning. Two days later they opened another game against the Angels by taking a 1-0 lead in the first. They scored a pair in the opening frame of their first game in Denver on Friday, then did so again Sunday.

The Mariners didn’t win any of those games. In fact, none of those initial leads lasted past the third inning.

Seattle’s starting pitchers had some pretty great first half performances, especially Marco Gonzales, but he is the only member of the rotation you can go into the break feeling particularly good about where he’s at.

Mike Leake twice was handed leads in the past week, and while he put together a quality start on Sunday, he (and Seattle’s defense) didn’t give the Mariners’ offense a boost in confidence by coughing up a 2-0 advantage in the third inning five days after he gave up five earned runs on 12 hits over four innings against the Angels.

Félix Hernández and James Paxton are currently on presumed short disabled list stints due to minor back issues, the former being the reason Christian Bergman was called up to make a spot start and yielded five runs over 4 1/3 innings in a loss Friday.

Wade LeBlanc never had a lead to work with in his start Saturday, but he too didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, giving up four runs in a 4-1 loss to the Rockies.

The Mariners were always likely to add starting pitching help by the July 31 trade deadline with Gonzales and Paxton over or nearing their MLB career highs for innings pitched. But with the Oakland Athletics on fire and just three games behind Seattle in the wild card race, it suddenly seems imperative that general manager Jerry Dipoto gets some additional veteran arms in the rotation as soon as he can.

Has the lack of Robinson Canó caught up to the offense?

Since July 1, the Mariners have averaged just 3.08 runs per game. During that stretch, they have a record of 5-7, and I think it’s safe to say they’re lucky they haven’t lost more with that lack of offense.

Seattle has been able to pull off some run differential magic this year thanks to an uncanny ability to sniff out a one-run win whenever one is in striking distance. But that magic hasn’t been present in July, and as Danny O’Neil pointed out last week, it sure looks the Mariners are finally missing not having their best hitter in the lineup nearly two months after Robinson Canó’s suspension.

The Mariners’ starting rotation is pitching like you might think it would on paper. The offense, however, should be better than it has been for the last few weeks. Mitch Haniger is third in the American League in RBIs, but he has driven in just five runs in 11 games this month. Kyle Seager looked on the verge of catching fire in late June but still takes a .233 average into the All-Star break. Patience isn’t part of Dee Gordon’s game, but the Mariners’ leadoff man has walked just twice since June 1.

Shannon Drayer made an interesting point recently about how the Mariners’ best answer to helping out the pitching staff may not be adding more pitchers but simply giving them more runs to work with. That’s not happening right now. If the Mariners are going to break the longest postseason drought in American pro sports, an offense that scores one to three runs out of the gate and hopes a lead will still be within its grasp in the seventh inning probably isn’t going to cut it.

Is everything… fine?

The baseball season is long. It’s easy to overreact – especially when a team loses seven of nine before a five-day break.

That kind of skid is never great, especially when the A’s are showing that they’re getting geared up for a playoff race. But it’s also not that bad when you remember that the Mariners went 31-12 from May 18 to July 3.

Losing streaks happen. Running into good teams you just can’t seem to figure out (see: Colorado Rockies) happens. Offenses slump. Pitching staffs hit walls.

This seemingly serendipitous Mariners season was never going to end without a rough patch. And it would only make sense that in 2018, Jerry Dipoto’s fictional Chart of Serendipity would include the All-Star break interrupting said rough patch, wouldn’t it?

Mariners and A’s could be in for a nail-biting playoff race

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Table Setter: Mariners have questions to answer after backing into break