BOB, GROZ AND TOM

2018 Mariners preview: Tom Wassell’s over-under

Mar 28, 2018, 5:00 AM | Updated: 8:56 am
Can Dee Gordon become just the second Mariner ever to steal 60 bases in a season? (AP)...
Can Dee Gordon become just the second Mariner ever to steal 60 bases in a season? (AP)
(AP)

If the Mariners are going to make any kind of run at October baseball, certain numbers will have to be met. So why not play a game of over-under?

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As we go through this you may be surprised at how realistic these figures seem, at least on an individual basis. The key is, of course, to have as many of them happen as possible without things like *gasp* injuries sabotaging the effort.

It’s my game, so I get to make the odds. We may agree or disagree on whether or not all of the Mariners players reach these numbers, but if it’s going to be a fun season at Safeco, they won’t be too far off.

Take a look and share your own verdicts in the comments.

Dee Gordon: 60 stolen bases

Since 2014, the Mariners’ new leadoff hitter stole 64, 58, 30 (in 79 games) and 60 bases. I don’t believe he has to steal 60 bases for the team to win, but since it’s a weapon the Mariners haven’t had in forever (only Harold Reynolds has reached 60 steals for the M’s), they might as well use it.

UNDER

Jean Segura: .310 average

If Gordon is going to be standing on second base that often, it would be nice if the 2016 National League hit king could do what he does best.

UNDER

Felix Hernandez: 4.10 ERA

This is about as high of a number as I can go with Felix and still think of it as a successful season. Anything more and the King’s Court will be permanently adjourned.

OVER

Ichiro Suzuki: With the team beyond June 1?

If Ichiro is with the Mariners past the month of May, he’s either playing out of his mind or Ben Gamel and Jayson Werth are hurt/not producing.

YES

Robinson Cano: 25 home runs

How many more times can he get over 25? Enough to make me not hate that contract.

OVER

Kyle Seager: .265 average

Hopefully, last year’s .249 average is the outlier. It’s odd that each of Seager’s last two managers have singled him out as a guy who should hit for higher average and yet it hasn’t happened.

UNDER

Mike Leake: 3.98 ERA

That’s his career ERA, so we’ll stick with that. The only things required of Mike Leake this season are to be consistent and available.

UNDER

Nelson Cruz: 32 home runs

This guy has done nothing but crush the ball since becoming a Mariner. And that smile will brighten up even the rainiest of Seattle days.

OVER

Daniel Vogelbach: More time in majors or minors?

If spring training’s best story is with the big club by the end of April, there’s likely an injury to someone else. But who’s to say he can’t force the Mariners to keep him around with solid production?

MINORS

Mike Zunino: .245 average

He doesn’t need to hit .280 to convince me that he’s “fixed.” Keep it above .230 with 25 home runs and keep doing what you’re doing behind the plate.

UNDER

James Paxton: 26 starts

His previous high is 24 (2017). I’m willing to accept him as a guy who just gets hurt once in awhile. If he makes 26, that will mean he will have missed roughly a month. Fine.

OVER

Edwin Diaz: 33 Saves

Diaz is the Mariners’ next homegrown All-Star. Huge year coming.

OVER

Marco Gonzales: 10 Wins

If your fourth starter is winning 12 games, you’re in the playoffs.

UNDER

Drayer: M’s aim to stay ahead of the curve with pitching tech

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2018 Mariners preview: Tom Wassell’s over-under