It’s time for the Mariners to fire GM Jack Zduriencik

The Mariners should make a move in the near future. And not just the “trading Austin Jackson” kind, either.

It’s time for the Mariners to relieve general manager Jack Zduriencik of his duties.

Related: Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik keeps focus forward, not on rumors

With 35 games left and eight teams ahead of the Mariners in the wild-card standings, FanGraphs gives them just a 1.4 percent chance of earning a playoff berth. While that isn’t zero, it is low enough. And with so few games remaining, I think the value of keeping Zduriencik “just in case they pull off the incredible” is outweighed by the advantages of getting a head start on the hiring process.

This is about the future for an organization that has a ton of positive things going for it: a significant revenue stream and budget to spend, a great ballpark, some significant talent, and a new upper management that is serious about competing for and winning championships.

But if they are going to pull the trigger on this, I think now would be the time. There are other teams likely to make moves and getting the next GM in place now would give that person the best chance to hit the offseason running.

I didn’t reach this conclusion lightly. You never should when dealing with someone’s livelihood or employment. I’ve been getting closer and closer to it for a while now and ultimately wanted to wait until after a win or two so that it didn’t come off or feel reactionary.

But I think it’s time.

When I was first hired at 710 ESPN Seattle, I asked to go to spring training to meet some of the players, the management and get to know the team I’d be spending a lot of time talking about. When I arrived, the first person I met with was Jack. We sat in his office and he was kind enough to spend some time talking baseball with me.

Coming from Boston, where the GM and other executives were essentially inaccessible to a low-level reporter like me, it felt like a nice change of pace. In the seven seasons since, Jack has always treated me (and others in the media) with decency and respect.

That 2009 season gave Mariners fans a lot of hope that things were going to be better around here. Junior, Mike Sweeney, Ichiro, Felix, Russell Branyan and Jarrod Washburn teamed with newfound closer David Aardsma and a few other feel-good stories to play some fun baseball. When Jack miraculously acquired Cliff Lee the next year, we were all set to Believe Big.

Unfortunately, that 2010 team tore itself to pieces and things unraveled from there.

You know the story.

Since that first winning season, the Mariners have gone 419-517. They have lost more than 90 games in a season three times, including 101 in 2010. And they haven’t made the playoffs despite the addition of a second wild-card team.

This is a bottom-line business and ultimately the record will speak for itself. But this goes beyond just the record. The reasons behind the record are nearly as damning.

A general manager is primarily in charge of drafting, trading, signing, developing and hiring a manager. And in all five phases, the Mariners have been subpar. A closer look:

Drafts

Zduriencik’s first-round picks have struggled mightily. He signed (but did not draft) Josh Fields then drafted Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, Mike Zunino, D.J. Peterson and Alex Jackson. Along the way, he gave up two first-round picks to sign Chone Figgins and Nelson Cruz. While Hultzen’s injuries are unfortunate, the fact remains that only Walker has reached anything close to expectations.

Making this worse, drafting was supposedly Zduriencik’s forte. He was brought here in large part because of the success he’d had drafting as an executive in Milwaukee.

Beyond that, Kyle Seager stands as his best success story. But even Seager seemed to regress this year, along with the seemingly chronically-injured James Paxton.

The picture doesn’t get prettier in the minor leagues either, where all too many second- through fifth-round picks have done too little.

Trades

The early deals were mostly either promising (Justin Vargas, Franklin Gutierrez, etc.) or the low-risk swaps designed to rid the organization of predecessor Bill Bavasi’s detritus.

But from 2010 on, they have been mostly misses. Justin Smoak busted here. So did Jesus Montero. Doug Fister was dealt for a collection of nobodies and a serviceable lefty reliever. Those were the big ones, but smaller deals like the Welington Castillo-Mark Trumbo swap have flopped as well.

Signings

Figgins was the biggest mistake but by no means the only one. While Zduriencik had a deft touch with veteran starters – Chris Young and Hisashi Iwakuma stand out – things went the other way with hitters.

Developing players

This may ultimately be the lowest grade on the sheet. While they have had some success with homegrown relievers and a few starters, the young hitters have – with the notable exception of Seager – failed.

Ackley, Miller, Zunino, Smoak and Montero. Those are the biggest names, but they aren’t the only ones. This administration has not developed position players well and it might be its biggest downfall.

Managers

Zduriencik is on his third manager in seven years. The first (Don Wakamatsu) lost control. The second (Eric Wedge) left in anger. Lloyd McClendon may take the blame for this year’s failures, but even that will fall back on the man who hired him. You generally don’t get a fourth managerial hire without some wins along the way.

Beyond any of that are two X-factors.

First, the team has seemingly operated with no clear direction or purpose. Who are the Mariners and what do they want to be?

It was stats-based at first but the Figgins signing seemed to kill that plan and ultimately led to the less-than-amicable departure of stats guru Tony Blengino. Since then, the Mariners have tried speed, defense, power, value – all of it without much success.

A team needs to clearly know in what direction it is moving and this baseball operations staff has not provided that.

Second, the Mariners have turned off too many fans. The organization has a great fanbase, a beautiful park, and it makes every effort to put the fans first with creative promotions and thoughtful ballpark additions. Those fans deserve a team worthy of those efforts and worthy of their support.

But this fanbase has turned cynical – so much so that it (apparently correctly) couldn’t even get too excited about a team that was predicted to do big things this season.

I would never support a strategy of trying to placate fans. Cleveland’s Terry Francona often says if you manage like a fan, you’ll end up as one, and I think the same applies in front offices. But if something isn’t done soon, they risk alienating a fanbase that wants so desperately to experience the great run that success-starved Kansas Citians saw last year.

It’s time for Mariners president Kevin Mather to make a move. He took over the presidency last season and my take is that he looks at the world critically. This is his opportunity to put a new stamp on the organization and acting now would give him an extra month to find the right baseball mind to lead the way.

The Mariners have some legitimate talent at the major-league level and this job should appeal to a high-quality candidate. But I think making a move now would give them the best chance to get the person they want and to give that person the best chance at success.

I have supported Zduriencik throughout the years and I don’t think all of the poor results are his fault. He had some terrible luck along the way. I think most GMs would have been sold on Ackley, Montero and Smoak as a solid foundation. But in a results-based business, that bad luck ultimately becomes your resume.

Zduriencik should be applauded for never trading away young players for veterans in a desperate attempt to salvage his job while it has seemed to be in jeopardy. He never made an Adam Jones-for-Erik Bedard type disaster.

But that isn’t enough.

It’s time for the Mariners to think about the future and find their next general manager.