3 takes on 4 big questions about the Seahawks at midway point

Nov 11, 2024, 6:02 PM

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith huddles with the offense on Oct. 10, 2024. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Staff report

The Seattle Seahawks sit at 4-5 as they prepare to return to action Sunday after their bye week. How has the first half of head coach Mike Macdonald’s debut season gone, and what can be expected going forward?

Lefko: Seahawks at crossroads as a franchise, with Geno at the center

SeattleSports.com writers Cameron Van Til, Zac Hereth and Brent Stecker give their thoughts on those questions and more as we do a midseason check-in on the Hawks.

State of the Seahawks

• 1. Nine games into the Macdonald era, how do you feel about the franchise’s trajectory?

Cameron Van Til: With a 37-year-old first-time head coach, two first-time NFL coordinators and new schemes on both sides of the ball, there were bound to be some growing pains. On top of that, the Seahawks have been hit pretty hard with injuries. So I wouldn’t be concerned about the 4-5 start. Ultimately, it takes time to build a true championship contender and bring in the right personnel to match a coach’s vision. Keep in mind, Pete Carroll went 7-9 in each of his first two seasons with Seattle. And when Macdonald took over as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator in 2022, the Ravens’ defense was a below-average unit for half a season before taking a big leap. Ultimately, this year is about laying a strong foundation. And although the results haven’t always been there yet, I think the franchise is in great hands with Macdonald and his smart and thoughtful approach to the game.

Zac Hereth: I’d say cautiously optimistic at this point. As per the examples Cam mentioned above, results don’t always come right away. It’s too early to make much of a judgement on the Macdonald era before he has a roster that better suits what he is looking for. And much of the Seahawks’ struggles so far are results of roster holes that were there before he arrived, particularly the abysmal play on the offensive line. I’ve also liked Macdonald’s approach to using a combination for analytics and feel to make decisions on things like when to go for it on fourth down. It would of course be nice to see this team exceed expectations early, but there hasn’t been anything to make you think Macdonald is in over his head. I feel those are the signs you really need to look for in a first-year coach.

Brent Stecker: There’s one thing I haven’t been able to shake this season. After the Seahawks won 26-20 over the Denver Broncos in Week 1, FOX analyst and former NFL offensive lineman Mark Schlereth said Seattle might have had “the best tackling performance I’ve ever witnessed in watching an NFL game.” That was a surprisingly weighty comment that pointed to the high ceiling Mike Macdonald’s defense can provide the Hawks. The problem is the tackling quickly went from a strength to an issue as defensive players started dropping like flies, which signaled to me that while Seattle has a great scheme, the personnel doesn’t fit it – yet. I think the trades to add defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris and swap out Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones IV at linebacker showed that Seattle recognizes the need for players that can perform at the physical level the defense requires, and they started to make an impact last week when the Seahawks allowed just 13 points to the Rams’ offense in regulation despite the Seattle offense committing three turnovers. Drafting defensive tackle Byron Murphy II in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft was the first step in building a mean defense, and those trades were another small step toward fitting the Seahawks’ roster to Macdonald’s style. I think that’s a good sign that Macdonald brought the Seahawks a scheme that will work once they get the personnel right.

• 2. Who or what has been the most encouraging part of this season?

Van Til: The biggest bright spot has been the emergence of a potential young core along the defensive front. Boye Mafe has built on last year’s breakout nine-sack sophomore campaign, totaling four sacks and a team-high six tackles for loss. Derick Hall is having a breakout Year 2 of his own, with five sacks, 11 quarterback hits and two forced fumbles. And when healthy, rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II has lived up to his status as a first-round pick, ranking in the top 15 among all interior defensive linemen in PFF’s pass-rush win rate and run-stop rate. It’s still early, but Mafe, Hall and Murphy look like they could be a cornerstone pieces for Macdonald’s defense moving forward.

Hereth: The continued development of Mafe and Hall tops the list for me. We’ve seen players flash with high sack totals in a season and then revert back to what they were before, so seeing Mafe follow a breakout second season with a strong start to his third year is very encouraging that the Seahawks have something real in him. And what Hall has done has been the biggest year-to-year leap of any defender and perhaps any player on the roster. The play of both has been huge with Uchenna Nwosu missing pretty much the entire season op to this point.

Stecker: There’s going to be some recency bias, but wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a huge game in Week 9, hauling in seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the kind of performance you want to see out of a wide receiver who was taken in the first round of the draft, and especially when your top option in the passing game, DK Metcalf, is out with an injury. It was JSN’s second 100-yard performance of the season, and he’s had a few other solid games along the way, which is why he’s tied for 12th in the NFL in receptions (50) and tied for 16th in receiving yards (568) this season. Who knows what the future holds with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it’s starting to look like JSN is on track to be a much-needed cornerstone at receiver.

• 3. Who or what has been the biggest disappointment?

Van Til: Without a doubt, it’s the offensive line. Seattle has a quality quarterback and elite talent at wide receiver and running back, and yet it’s all been crippled by the continued struggles up front. The Seahawks rank 25th in PFF’s pass block grading, marking the ninth time in 12 seasons they have graded in the bottom quartile of the league. Their run-blocking hasn’t been much better, sitting at 20th in PFF grading. And to make matters worse, there’s been a maddening mess of penalties, bad snaps and other miscues. As a result, Geno Smith has been under frequent duress, the rushing attack has been among the league’s worst and Seattle is left trying to dig itself out of far too many third-and-long situations. The revolving door of injuries at right tackle have certainly played a major role in the struggles, but that doesn’t diminish the feeling that the Seahawks’ skill-position firepower is being squandered.

Hereth: The secondary. It’s not the worst position group on this team by any stretch, but it hasn’t lived up to expectations. The Seahawks are 18th in the league with 218.1 passing yards allowed per game, but that number is helped out quite a bit by facing a run of poor quarterback play in the first three weeks. They surrendered an average of just 132.3 passing yards in those games. In the six games since, they’ve allowed 261 yards per game, which would rank 30th. It’s particularly troubling when you factor in that opponents have often been playing with a lead and haven’t been racking up passing yards trying to catch up.

Stecker: The obvious answer is the offensive line, but I’m going to dig a little deeper and say the offensive play-calling. The Seahawks know the O-line is severely limited, which is a complete 180 for first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who had the nation’s best O-line with the UW Huskies last year. It seems he’s still figuring out the adjustments needed when going from the college game to the pro game, which is to be expected, especially considering how drastically different this line is from he’s used to. But as was pointed out by multiple insiders over the bye week, an over-use of shotgun formations and under-use of play-action passes have hindered a passing game that is already playing with a handicap due to the O-line’s deficiencies and the team’s inability to establish the run. You’d have to imagine Seattle will have some new looks on offense after having extra time to assess everything over the bye.

• 4. What’s your prediction for the rest of the season?

Van Til: The Seahawks split their remaining eight games and fall short of the playoffs with an 8-9 record. I expect Seattle to make strides and play better on both sides of the ball, but the second-half schedule is brutal. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Seahawks have the fourth-toughest remaining slate in the league. They only have one remaining opponent with a losing record, and all eight of their remaining opponents are in the top 20 of ESPN’s FPI. It’s simply too hard to envision them winning more than four games the rest of the way. When the dust settles, that Week 6 loss to the 2-7 Giants could prove really costly.

Hereth: It seems like the Seahawks are set up to go 4-4 down the stretch. It’s hard to imagine Seattle beating the 49ers or the Packers at this point. The two games against the Cardinals, the season finale against the Rams and their game against the Vikings feel like they could go either way. And Seattle is probably the favorite against the Jets and the Bears. Of course, anything can happen in the NFL, but I’d be surprised if the Seahawks are able to sneak to into the playoffs.

Stecker: I hate to do this, but after looking at the rest of Seattle’s schedule, the only prediction I can responsibly make is one famously made by Clubber Lang. Good luck getting to seven wins with that gauntlet ahead.